Sunday, April 23, 2017

More Heavy Squalls Could Be Just Ahead But For Now The Bulls Have Come Out To Play

Trading Diary: U.S. steel sector does a complete about face

WASHINGTON, April 20, 2017 – After Wednesday's vicious market collapse, all's right with the world on Wall Street Thursday. A majority of sectors (save for defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities) have done an about face today, bolstered by a number of positives, including President Trump's order to the Department of Commerce to open an…

Apocalypse 2008 Redux

IMF Urges Caution as Washington Eyes Slashing Regulations, Taxes

The International Monetary Fund said President Trump's plans to cut regulations and taxes might encourage companies to make risky investments of the kind that preceded the financial crisis in 2008. The comment came Wednesday in the newest edition of the IMF's Global Financial Stability Report, which also said the financial system has gotten more stable in…

Solidifying A Dodgy Territorial Claim With Oil, Eh?

China Seeks Foreign Help in Risky Work Finding Oil in Disputed Sea

Beijing is looking for foreign contractors to help find oil and gas under the South China Sea but expects to meet resistance because other governments contest its claims and any discoveries may bring low returns. China's state-run China National Offshore Oil Corp. issued a tender last week for foreign companies to join it in exploring for…

Saturday, April 22, 2017

In Trump Administration Mergers And Acquisitions Are All The Rage

Verizon CEO Says Company Would Consider Mergers

Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam says he is open to having talks about mergers with just about any company, including his company’s biggest rivals, in an interview this week with Bloomberg. McAdam said he is open to the possibility of merging with cable and telecommunications giants like Comcast, Disney or CBS, though he didn’t indicate any actual…

Thing Is Christine, I Don't Think You Have A Choice Either Way

Lagarde: IMF Can Cooperate With Trump Administration

The head of the International Monetary Fund says she "has every reason to believe" that the global lender can cooperate with the Trump Administration to support and improve global trade. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde spoke in Washington as economic and political officials gathered from around the world at this week's meetings of the IMF and…

Will The Final Nail In The E.U.'s Coffin Be Nailed This Weekend?

FRANCE - Will ‘Frexit’ supporters decide the outcome of the French presidential election?

The latest analysis of Vote Compass data by Vox Pop Labs suggests that 49% of French voters support holding a referendum on France’s EU membership. Is "Frexit" likely to sway voters' decisions at the ballot box? Unemployment, the economy and immigration are three of the four most important issues in the campaign. These policy questions all…

Friday, April 21, 2017

Sounds Like That Plate Could Use A Little Freedom


And Like That We Travelled Ten Years Into The Past

Senator calls for “preemptive strike” on North Korea and offers a jaw-dropping justification for war

In an interview with “The Today Show,” Senator Lindsey Graham advocated for a first strike against North Korea in the absence of Chinese action, saying that the United States is “on a collision course” with North Korea. “I talked to the president when I had lunch with him about this very topic. I said, ‘Do you…

Great....

Automation Could Slash Jobs in Developing Countries

World Bank President Jim Kim warns that two-thirds of jobs in developing nations could be wiped out by automation, a situation that could boost conflict and refugee flows. Dr. Kim spoke Thursday in Washington as economic and political leaders from around the world gathered for meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Kim…

Caught In Between A Condensing Triangle And A Perma-Bear

Up In the Air

By -

Greetings from the Centurion Lounge at San Francisco International Airport, where my beloved son and I are preparing to fly off to, yes, another fencing tournament. This place is good for my frail ego, since my kids have been dropping some broad hints about me putting on a few pounds, and seeing the spheres that inhabit this place makes me feel less pudgy. I guess the upper middle class traveling sort likes to chow down. But this little anecdote isn’t why you’re here. Let’s talk about a few charts.
I am, as you might guess, still utterly short. I have 43 positions, 40 of which are individual equities (largely in energy) and 3 simple ETFs. The ES has been banging around, going nowhere in particular, for two solid months now. The lines cleanly define the diminishing range, and gee willikers, I’d love to see us break the lower boundary. I’m traveling, so that can only help, at least for Friday.
0420-es
We remain at the mercy of what the Japanese Yen is doing. We’ve got a decent amount of room to the downside (tinted in green), but a fight back higher could still happen within the confines of the downtrend. It sure would be nice to get a steady slip lower last more than a few hours. All this back-and-forth stuff is driving me to drink. (Which is free here at the lounge).
0420-usdjpy
I have no position in anything gold-related, but I’ve gotta tell ya, I’m getting a Funny Feeling ™ that it’s going to break to the upside. I know that we just started falling away from a descending trendline, but today I noticed a cup with handle pattern (green tint). If we bust that trendline, stand aside, because I think precious metals are really going to start rockin’.
0420-gold
Lastly, and for me most importantly, is crude oil. This isn’t at the mercy of USD/JPY nearly as much as equities, and my dream scenario is a failure at the tint I’ve drawn (which itself is a ways off). I am long ERY, although I sold off about 40% of my position early on Thursday morning to take some profits, and I’ve got about a dozen individual short positions.
0420-crude
My contributions will continue to be sporadic until Monday (although if I didn’t say anything, I bet you wouldn’t have noticed), so I again encourage outside contributors to put up some posts so that Tim & Son can fence their way to glorious victory, whose taste is sweet.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

China's Economic Impact Around Pacific Rim

China's economic growth to contribute $125b to Australian economy: Expert

CANBERRA — Strong growth of the Chinese economy, coupled with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to cut interest rates to record lows, are expected to deliver a AU$165 billion ($125 billion) boost to the Australian economy, according to Deloitte Access Economics. Recently, China reported an annual growth rate of 6.9 percent for the first…

Positive, But Precarious

IMF: Global Economic Growth Speeds Up a Bit

The International Monetary Fund says the global economic outlook is "brightening," but warns that "protectionism" and geopolitical tensions could hurt economic growth. The IMF published the report Tuesday, ahead of this week's gathering of top economic officials from around the world for meetings of the World Bank and the IMF. The IMF's Maurice Obstfeld told journalists…

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Market Continues To Oscillate

Rubber Seoul

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OK, the pun doesn’t really work, because Seoul is in Korea, but it’s all I could come up with at this hour. Anyway, the point is that the USD/JPY is pretty badly stretched to the downside, and thus has ample room to push higher, even within the context of a general downtrend. It’s already happening this morning.
0419-usd

This is having the regular effects of (a) pushing gold lower, as well as its miners (b) strengthening equities. Indeed, neither bulls nor bears can get any lasting traction in this tug-of-war. The ES has, in fact, gone nowhere for two months.
0419-es
My “big event” today is the oil inventory report at 7:30 a.m. Slope time. I have a pretty big concentration of energy shorts, which have been doing well, and those are far more at the mercy of what oil is doing rather than what the Yen is up to.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Incentivization Of Green Financing

China central bank official urges efforts to boost green financing

BEIJING — A central bank official on Saturday said green financing must be improved as the country seeks greener and more sustainable growth. In a speech delivered at a meeting on green financing, vice governor of the central bank Chen Yulu said China's green financing is still at an early stage and it has the potential…

China's Natural Resource Acquisition Continues Unabated

New pipeline broadbases gas supplies

PetroChina's petrol station is pictured in Beijing, China, March 21, 2016. [Photo/Agencies] The 1,454-km Kazakh-China link will transport 5 billion cu m annually A new strategically important natural gas pipeline running from southern Kazakhstan to China began operating on Friday, China National Petroleum Corp said in a statement. The company said the pipeline, which has annual…

That's Enough Money To Actually Bring Walt Disney Back To Life (The Person, Not The Company)

Analysts Speculate On Apple Acquisition Of Disney

Wall Street is looking into an Apple-Disney merger, a note by RBC Capital Markets analysts obtained by Variety indicates. The analysts say Apple has the money to take over Disney, and such a merger would create a company worth $1 trillion with “almost limitless opportunities in content and technology.” Although it's all speculation at this point,…

Monday, April 17, 2017

Near Term Gold Correction, But Otherwise More Weakness For The Dollar

Next Important Test for Gold Bulls

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0417-gold

Further Energy Independence For U.S.

Alaska Has a New Oil Boom Thanks to Fracking

This article originally appeared on The Conversation. Arctic lands and waters hold irresistible allure for global oil companies. Despite opposition from environmental groups and President Obama’s 2016 ban on drilling in federal Arctic waters, exploration in Alaska has revealed massive new volumes of oil. This comes at a time of low oil prices, when many observers…

Apple Swooping In To Pick Over Toshiba's Pieces

Apple Is Considering Teaming Up With Foxconn To Bid For Toshiba Chip Unit

Apple is reportedly considering getting together with its iPhone assembler Foxconn Technology to bid for Toshiba’s semiconductor business, a Japan public broadcaster NHK reported Friday, according to Reuters. Apple would be making its own bid next to Foxconn’s bid, and is considering investing at least several billion dollars for a stake of more than 20 percent.…

Traditional Retailers Re-Inventing Themselves Through M&A

Walmart is close to expanding their empire with the purchase of a huge online retailer

As countless iconic brand name stores are shutting their doors, Walmart looks to only get bigger and bigger. Reports claimed this week that Walmart was in the end stages of talks to purchase Bonobos, a popular online men’s clothing retailer. RELATED: Two new digital upgrades could send Walmart sailing past competitors Amazon and Target Watch the…