Thursday, July 27, 2017

I Knew It...

Money Is the Secret to Happiness, Science Says

Money can buy you happiness, a new study shows. But it must be spent wisely: not on material possessions, but on time-saving activities that will contribute to living a more satisfied, relaxed life. A team of researchers led by Harvard Business School professor Ashley Whillans surveyed nearly 4,500 people, including millionaires, from the U.S., Canada, Denmark…

Hopefully With Business Comes Regional Stability

Independence will open doors to investment in Kurdistan

The liberation of Iraq in 2003 brought with it economic opportunities that the people of Iraq had never before imagined. In Kurdistan, we seized upon this chance to grow our society in the ways we had long dreamed - in the first 10 years annual per capita GDP grew from around $500 to $7,000. Although the…

England Follows Suit

UK To Ban Sale Of Petrol And Diesel Cars By 2040

The U.K. is set to ban all petrol and diesel cars and vans from 2040. Ministers will unveil a fund of £225 million ($332 million) to help councils take measures to deal with pollution from diesel vehicles. "What we're saying to local authorities is come up with an imaginative solution to these proposals," said Environment Secretary…

Great, But Adding Jobs At A Market Top?

Amazon seeks to fill 50,000 warehouse jobs

SEATTLE — Amazon.com says it will hold a giant, multisite job fair on Aug. 2 to help fill some of the 50,000 jobs open across its U.S. network of fulfillment centers. The e-commerce giant, based in Seattle, says that on the occasion it calls "Jobs Day," it will welcome applicants at 10 of its warehouses. Amazon…

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Coal's Influence Continues To Wane

China's LNG imports jump in H1

BEIJING — China increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in the first half (H1) of 2017, as part of an effort to clean up its coal-dominated energy mix. The LNG channeled into the world's biggest energy consumer rose 38.3 percent year-on-year to 15.89 million metric tons in the January-June period, according to data released by the…

U.S. Not Ready For A Multi-Polar Economic World

US Losing Heft In Global Economy: IMF

Six months after President Donald Trump assumed office, the economic heft of the United States is already diminishing. Several experts predicted better economic growth for the country under the Republican administration and the International Monetary Fund too began the year on optimistic note. The IMF predicted Trump’s ascension as the US president would trigger a fiscal…

Toyota Continues To Muscle In On Electric Vehicles

Toyota May Produce Electric Vehicles In China By 2019

Toyota could start mass production of electric cars in China as early as 2019, according to Nikkei. China is planning to set production quotas for “new energy cars” next year, and Toyota is planning to meet the goal. Read: Summer Olympics 2020 News: Toyota-Backed Flying Car Could Light Torch In Tokyo For Opening Ceremony In 2012,…

Knock On Effect Of Strong Loonie

Canadian Buyers Storming US Real Estate Market

Canadians have been purchasing property in the United States in record numbers, with the period between spring 2016 and 2017 seeing an all-time high of $19 billion, it was reported Saturday. The figure from a report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is believed to be something of a surprise due to the relative weakness…

Monday, July 24, 2017

Confusing Energy Pivot For U.K To Volatile Market In Africa

We're Interested in Nigeria's Oil, Gas - Britain

Britain has expressed its interest in Nigeria's oil and gas industry. It expressed its readiness to invest in pipeline infrastructure, renewable energy, gas and power of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry. British High Commissioner, Mr. Paul Arkwright, made this promise when the Group General Manager, Group Public Affairs of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Mr.…

Never Waste A Good Crisis

'Clean cars' will save us from climate change deniers

Donald Trump has, as we all know, withdrawn America from the Paris Climate Change Accords. The biggest, most promising international agreement since the founding of the United Nations. It was to be expected. He said he would. When he took office, the official White House website removed every mention of climate change. Except for the promise…

Regional Resource Grab Boxing China In

Philippines Pokes China With Intent to Drill for Oil in Disputed Sea

Plans in the Philippines to reopen a tract of the disputed South China Sea for oil and gas exploration is likely to complicate the foreign policy of Manila’s new friend Beijing, which claims the same waters, and adds to a regional pushback against Chinese maritime influence. Philippines oil drilling plans The Philippine Department of Energy is…

Sunday, July 23, 2017

Volatility Could Be Turning A Critical Corner

XIV Hits All Time Highs – VIX Sets Records That May Never Be Broken

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By Mike Golembesky, ElliottWaveTrader.net


In an article published widely last week, I had noted that as long as the XIV was able to hold the 83.93 level, I expected to see it hit the 87.76 – 91.53 zone into this week with the potential to see a move into the mid 90’s prior to making a large degree top.


On Tuesday of this week, the XIV closed at the upper end of this 91.53 zone and then on continued to extend higher into Wednesday, and as of Thursday’s close is now trading at the 93.83 level having so far been contained by the 238.2 Fibonacci extension level of the move up off of the 7/6 low.


While the XIV is so far following through on the smaller degree pattern and is tracing out a very clean impulsive pattern off of the 7/6 low, it is now starting to push the limits of the upper end of what I still prefer to count as a large Ending Diagonal pattern off of the April 12th low.


The price action over the next several trading sessions should be key in helping give further clues as to where the XIV is heading in the near term.


As I noted in the title of this article, the CBOE Volatility Index or the VIX index has set some records in 2017 that have been truly remarkable and may never be seen again. Not only in ultra-low price levels but in the frequency that these ultra-low price levels have occurred.


The VIX hit an all-time low closing reading this year using both the new VIX methodology that was created in 2003 and also the old VIX methodology, which is trackable by using the VXO symbol, that dates back to the early 90s. The VXO saw a 7 handle this year, while the “new” VIX closed at 9.51 last Friday, the lowest level since the new methodology was introduced by the CBOE in 2003.
As impressive as these record low closes are, even more impressive is how long the VIX has maintained these ultra-low levels.  Prior to 2017 the new VIX going back to 2003 had only closed under the 10 level four times. This occurred three times in November through December of 2006 and once more in January of 2007.


In 2017 the VIX has closed under the 10 level a total of 13 times. These occurred in May, June and July of this year. In fact, as of July 20th the last six consecutive sessions all saw the VIX close under the 10 level. That is more closes under 10 in just the last six days than had ever occurred in every year combined prior to 2017.


While closing under 10 is certainly ultra-low level to see, a close under the 11 level is still also very low. So low in fact that prior to 2017 the VIX had only closed under 11 in a handful of months 2006, 2007 and 2014.


This year the VIX has closed under the 11 level at least once in every single month of the year . Having closed under 11 in nineteen of the twenty-two trading days in May and eighteen of the twenty-two trading days in June. This month the VIX has closed under the 11 level in eight of the thirteen trading days that we have seen so far in the month. The total days that the VIX has traded under the 11 level in just six and half months in 2017 comes to 58; the previous record for a single year was 35 in 2006.


So while I cannot predict the future and say with certainty that these records will not be broken, I can say that I would be truly impressed if the VIX can manage to once again accomplish a feat like we have seen in 2017.


As noted above the current pattern off of the 7/6 low has been following the shorter term pattern quite well and has hit all of our expected fibs almost perfectly. The one possible exception to this is that we may have extended beyond the ideal upper target for our minor degree wave iii up off of the 7/6 low. I say possible exception because while I am still leaning towards seeing another minor degree wave iv down and v up as shown in the white count on the 20-minute chart I can make the case that we have already topped in wave iii and are currently already in wave v up per the yellow path.
I would need to see a break of at least the 86.87 level to have the initial confirmation that we have indeed topped per the yellow count with further confirmation coming with a break of the 83.74 and then 77.52 levels.


While I am still leaning towards seeing another high back into the mid-90s prior to topping, there is still quite a bit of risk in attempting to play the XIV to the upside here or Volatility in general to the downside. While I am still looking for a tradable top in the XIV, the setup has still yet to present itself. Until that setup comes I will continue to remain content on the sidelines as we still have no confirmation that this period of record setting low Volatility is behind us.


See charts illustrating the wave counts on the XIV.

Saturday, July 22, 2017

What Could Be More Terrifying, China And AI Taking Over The World In The Future

Plan to put China in AI industry vanguard

China aims to build a 1 trillion yuan ($147.9 billion) artificial intelligence industry by 2030, as the country scrambles to lead the world in research and application of the cutting-edge technology, a new plan said on…

Well That Settles It, North Korea Is A Buy

North Korea economy undergoes rapid growth

North Korea’s economy grew at its fastest pace in 17 years in 2016 despite the isolated country facing international sanctions to curb its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The expansion, driven by mining and energy, marked the biggest rise since a 6.1 percent gain in 1999. The robust economic growth may also partly be due to the…

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Seems About Right

Calling for Market Top Within The Next Three Weeks

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Last week, I noted to members: “As long as last week’s low is not broken, the market still has a set up in place to rally up towards the 2500SPX region.”

And, as we saw, the market has rallied up towards our long-term target region. The high we struck on Friday is now only 24 points from the bottom of our long-term target box, which we set several years ago.

Since bottoming back in February of 2016, the S&P500 has rallied 38%. That is one of the best runs in the market’s history. But, were you prepared for it?


The truth is that most in the market were quite bearish back in February of 2016. As I have noted before, back on February 10, 2016, bearish sentiment, according to the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, was at one of its highest readings, hitting 48.7% (with only 24% responding as bullish), whereas it has a historical average of 30.5% bears and over 40% bulls. The February 10th measurements are considered to be relatively extreme bearish numbers.

How many of you even reasonably considered that the market could attain 2500+ in the S&P 500 back in February of 2016, even after I continued to strongly suggest that potential? If you are honest with yourself, the answer is likely going to be an extremely small percentage. But, the potential was clearly on the chart for all those who knew where to look.
You see, the market does offer clues as to where and how it can move. In fact, back on the last days of 2015, I warned that the SPX could drop down to the 1800 region before it began its rally to 2500.

And, as we know, the drop we saw into February of 2016 just below the 1800SPX level provided us with sufficient bearishness to catapult us up towards our long-term rally targets which were viewed in disbelief by most.

And, this happens over and over in all different markets. Yet, because investors are looking for the next 2008-type of crash to happen at any time, they fail to understand that many of these fear-intensive drops are what sets the market up to rally just as strongly. Even this weekend, I have seen at least 3 other articles calling for the market to crash.

Another example of how markets fool most participants was seen around the time of the Presidential election. You see, as the market was dropping into our pullback target days before the election in early November, on November 5th, I wrote:

“once the market moves strongly through the 2098SPX level and is able to continue through 2125SPX, that is our initial indication that we could have a long-term low in place, and finally begin our run to 2350SPX next.”

Now, consider the general market expectation at the time. We were within days of the election, and the common expectation was that if Trump was going to win the election, the market was certainly going to crash. However, it did not matter who won the election in our analysis, as the market was set up to rally to 2300+ no matter who was in the White House. And, despite many scoffing at my perspective at the time, the market has certainly proven me correct, as Mr. Trump is now sitting in the White House, and the market is approaching our longer-term target regions.

This is simply another example of how most of the market is fooled by their expectations surrounding news, whereas it truly is market sentiment which “trumps” all other factors when it comes to the stock market. This was likely one of the most obvious recent examples of this perspective, and those who are willing to recognize it are much more wealthy for their willingness to open their minds.
Moreover, as our government continues to seem in disarray, the market does not seem to care. In fact, our government has been doing nothing other than dithering over this ridiculous Russian issue for months. But, again, none of this matters to the market, and it never will, as the market has simply continued to rally towards our long-term targets. Despite what many believe, it matters not who is in office, nor what they are doing. The market has a mind of its own, and if you have not learned that lesson over the last two years with Brexit, terrorism, Trump, Syria, rising interest rates, etc. being unable to derail this rally, then I am not sure you have been paying attention.

As the DOW and S&P500 hit new all-time highs this past week, and the NASDAQ has come back almost all the way from the “scary” drop we saw in June, many market participants are starting to believe this market may never come down again. Even though you have analysts coming out week after week calling for a market crash, many of them have been saying this weekly during this last 37% rally in the SPX. Oh, and don’t forget about all those Hindenburg Omens which were supposed to portend a market crash. At this point in time, investors may have begun to view these analysts as the little boy who cried wolf.

But, are we approaching the time of day when those broken clocks will finally be right? I think so.
Last Tuesday evening, July 11, my evening update to my members at Elliottwavetrader.net stated the following:

Market Will Be Tested Tomorrow

With the market pullback today, we have a completed i-ii, 1-2 in the bullish set up for wave 5 of (V) of (3). But, with that set up, it means the market is just about out of room to break out to the upside. In fact, I would need to see a strong confirmation as early as tomorrow, with a potential gap up over the downtrend line on the 60 minute chart.

The next day, we gapped up over the downtrend line, as the market tacked on a 20-point rally on Wednesday. It followed up with a further 20 points the next two days, and struck a new all-time high.
As you can see from the charts linked below, the market is now approaching our long-term target we set several years ago. In fact, we are now within the final “squiggles” of this segment of the rally.

And, I think we can strike a top to the market within the next 3 weeks. In fact, Luke Miller, who runs one of our proprietary timing models at Elliottwavetrader.net, notes that there is a potential timing target around August 9th which can mark a larger degree top in the market. (Just so you know, Luke’s timing model called for this current rally in the SPX over a week ago).

While many will now turn bullish in disbelief of the action in the equity markets, I am now finally turning somewhat cautious, and will likely remain so until the fall. My expectation is for last week’s ascent to slow down in the SPX over the coming weeks, which will likely result in a multi-month top being struck, sending us back down to the 2300 region in the SPX in the coming months. (Click for larger image)
0718-avi

Following In Lock Step With China

Issues As Nigeria Prepares for First Sovereign Green Bonds

As Nigeria prepares to issue the first Sovereign Green Bonds by this third quarter, CHIKA OKEKE examines several inter-agency collaboration, benefits of the bonds and how it would green Nigerian economy. Prior to Nigeria's participation at the 22nd session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 22) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change…

The Demographic Earthquake Emerges

Starting in 2022, Social Security will pay out more than it takes in

According to the Social Security Board of Trustees, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds will be depleted in 2034. When this happens, only 77 percent of benefits will be payable. That estimate is no change from last year’s estimate. In addition, the Disability Insurance trust fund will be depleted in 2028,…

Industry Majors And A Push Towards Sustainability

Nornickel Unveils Major Sustainability and Work Safety Advances for 2016

MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC (Nornickel; MCX: GMKN, LSE: MNOD), the world’s largest nickel and palladium producer, released its annual Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) report on Wednesday, detailing the company’s performance in 2016 and progress towards achieving environmental and social responsibility goals set for 2023. In 2016, Nornickel spent US $383 million on environment protection, up 8.9%…

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Solar Cheaper Than Coal

Wind of change is blowing through energy sector

Two farmers on a tractor pass through a wind power farm in Inner Mongolia. [Photo by Su Weizhong/For China Daily] Coal mining has become a way of life for Inner Mongolia but a new wave of green energy is about to change that. Bu Xiaolin, chairman of North China's Inner Mongolia autonomous region, talked with pride…

Never Waste A Good Crisis, Even If Our Survival Is Threatened

Earth Is Getting Warmer And There’s A Reason To Worry

Climate change is real and it’s happening now. The data published Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) highlighted the first half of 2017 was the second warmest in 138 years. The global average temperature recorded between January and June was 1.48 F degrees above the 20th century average of 59.9 degrees. Besides, the…