Thursday, May 29, 2014

Daily Commodities Report: Morning Edition

Because I didn't post anything yesterday (hungover) and some very interesting developments have taken place with my charts, I'll have two posts today! This is the morning edition followed by one later this evening. Whatever has been left out, major transitions must be taking place so rather than make a mistake with too little data, they've been omitted.

Copper: JJC
JJC is continuing its movement horizontally along the channel. Still hasn't hit the lower band but I do expect it to in the next few days around $38.40 to $38.20. My PPO indicator has moved down but I expect to put in a cross shortly.

Corn: CORN
CORN has almost completed the steep declining channel I've noted for the past few sessions. Its currently approaching a resistance line at $31.60. Furthermore, MACD and TRIX are showing some life so at the bell this morning this might actually break out. My histogram is too oversold to confidently recommend a "buy" because it might just be working off the negative momentum and continue down to $31.60.

Crude Oil: USO
USO has broken below $37.80. USO was looking so strong, I thought it could stay up and continue this channel but now a pause seems more likely. All indicators are quite negative. Very difficult to know if this will continue but we will see contact with the lower resistance line and then a pause followed by either a bounce or a break. Personally I'm in favor of the latter. USO has even broken it's moving averages on my RENKO chart. The pause will be important since yesterday's decline was fast and furious. "Pause" here means a modest retracement of yesterday's losses while moving with the lower resistance line before heading down.

Gold: GLD
The decline I've been forecasting has occurred and in full swing. In the near term a pause seems likely since narrow channels never last. I hope everyone has been able to take advantage with some "shorts" or put options. The decline will continue and this channel should widen today or tomorrow. A near term pause should happen at just below $120.00. Further in the intermediate to long term I see capitulation to around $116.00

Lithium: LIT
I think LIT can be best described as "cresting," which is to say after its transformation into a new channel some of the intermediate bands will be tested. I expect oscillation in this region near term.

Sugar: SGG
SGG has a bounce and a very good day yesterday. This will continue to trend upwards.