Monday, May 19, 2014

Daily Commodities Report

Sugar: SGG
Sugar has had a great little run as of late but unfortuntely just after breaking out it's trajectory is contained by yet another descending resistance line (and this one much more signficant since it covers a much greater length of time). Predictably it bounced off of the upper channel line around $58.30 and now rests mid-channel at $56.46. I wouldn't surprised if this went on to test the lower limits at $54.05 before breaking out properly.

Silver: SLV
Silver has been a disappintment and I expect will continue to disappoint into the foreseable future. Since April 21st price has oscillated between about $19.10 and $18.20 in a modest inclined bear channel. I fully expect it to test the lower channel lines in the coming days, however, a break out of this channel with a signifianct decline is in store. When this will occur I cannot say, but I do believe it will be coincident with a bullish turn in the American dollar.

Crude Oil: USO
Crude Oil I must admit has been a puzzelement to me lately with events in Eastern Europe and an unusually cold North American winter complicating issues. Currently oil is in a fairly tight channel having just bounced off the upper-most resistance line today. Highs put in place early in March and again on the 21st of April are just $0.20 away at the moment. This represents a significant barrier to further ascension. In the meantime I expect it to travel horizontally for a short while before moving up again in the following day or so.

Coal: KOL
Coal has been trading in a steady channel for some time which is rather uncharacteristic. Since the first week of April we've seen a range between approximately $19.20 and $18.50. Long term charts will be posted on the weekend, so it'll be interesting to catchup with this commodity. Needless to say my general outlook is rather bearish for coal and commodities in general as we begin to enter the summer months. For the short term I see a declining TRIX and MACD indicators so in future trading sessions I expect this to decline to the lower resistance lines.

Coffee: JO
After a monumental run a short while back coffee has found a wall and doesn't seem to be proceeding further. It continues to oscillate in this range with other commentators stating now is a good time to take profits. Currently coffee is making its third hit on the lower barrier with TRIX and MACD both showing an ongoing decline. Sooner or later I expect this channel to break down.

Natural Gas: UNG
Natural gas is not looking particularly hopeful at this point. MACD and TRIX both inclining, however I believe for the immediate term we will see a short pause or decline before the overall up-trend of this channel continues. Bottom line is that we are currently in a downtrend of an overall uptrend.