Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Daily Commodities Report

Coal: KOL
As previously stated, coal has reached the lower band and bounced today (but just barely). We have three taps on the upper-most band and three on the lower now. As you can see it is already resting at the first resistance line around $18.75. TRIX and MACD suggest that it will continue to move up from here for the remainder of the week as they are both oversold. We are transitioning to overall uptrend.

Coffee: JO
Earlier I speculated that because of the lower resistance put in place back in April, a breakdown from its current channel was a possibility and this is evidently what has happened. It is curious though that like other commodities such as uranium that similarly went through some fantastic gains around March and April, those gains have been either given up entirely or on their way to doing so. I fear coffee is no different and test of the lower resistance at $34.00 is entirely within the realm of possibility. Alternatively, it may continue to oscillate horizontally having just put in a new mid-channel low.Without a convincing close above $36.00 we're looking at a new descending channel.

Corn: CORN
As predicted today corn came in contact with a resistance line set back in March ($32.60) with some tepid movement lengthwise along it. MACD is hugely oversold so it seems as convenient a place as ever to work some of it off and try and come in contact with the upper-most line in this channel, appearing around $33.20 or so. TRIX just flipped up so at least for a short while we will be in an overall uptrend. Unfortunately, like so many other commodities I would expect overall downward channel to continue once the upper limit is reached, declining to $31.60.

Crude Oil: USO
Whatever it is crude oil is on, I'd like it to sell me just a teaspoon of it! We are not in a new channel despite the fact that it punched through it's upper-most band first established in late April. MACD is overbought so there is very little room  for it go further, but more significantly it's blasted through it's previous peak at $37.70. My prediction would be for some of the over-boughtness to work itself off, oscillate back in the original channel and then decide whether its going to stay above $37.70 and march upward or simply decline back to $36.00 or $35.10. My money would be on the former, further movement in crude upward. Today a significant gap was put in which will be tough to break. Look for USO staying within $38.12 to $37.80. for the next few sessions.

Gold: GLD
Currently still within its rather generous channel first set up in mid April. Currently moving downward in an overall downward trend. I fully expect it to reach approximately $123.00.

Silver: SLV
Silver continues to travel in its rather generously proportioned channel first established back in mid April. Not much movement has occurred over the last few trading sessions. MACD signal line has not crossed over, but rather has infuriatingly traveled horizontally since the 19th. We are still in a downtrend and moving downward according to the MACD. I'm still expecting a breakdown of this channel at some-point so not very much worth reporting here.

Lithium: LIT
Like USO, LIT has also enjoyed a nice jump today but has not closed above its upper-most band. I expect this channel to hold. Additionally, I do not expect it to close in the coming sessions below $12.70. The overall trend is up but MACD and TRIX are showing downward movement, so perhaps a little more time will be spent in the channel before it moves on. Three or four taps have already been put in place on the upper band so it will eventually breakout and continue a new trend. We could be seeing the beginning of that transition today.

Natural Gas: UNG
After briefly meandering out of the channel established on the 12th of May it returned today. Both MACD and TRIX look as if they are about to have signal lines crossover. UNG had already been showing downward movement, but now signals show a transition to a downtrend. Expect hits on $24.60 and possibly $24.21.

Sugar: SGG
Sugar had a nice bounce today off of the $55.20 line. Overall trend is downward but upward movement was seen today and may continue for the next session or two. I am hoping for a more convincing breakout of the triangle witnessed a few days previously. Longer term charts unfortunately suggest we will remain in this channel for some time to come.

Uranium: URA
URA had an important session today as I previously stated earlier in the week we might begin to witnessing the transition to a new channel. Longer term charts suggest a much more optimistic picture than presented on this 2 hour chart. I do not expect further movement downward. I believe a transition to a new upward channel is at hand, however as the current channel shows a breakout optimistically isn't happening until June at the earliest. Great buy point right now.



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