Wednesday, June 04, 2014

All of the world's problems can be solved with coffee. For everything else there's wine.

   I and other commentators such as Trading Channels had long suspected a rally brewing (no pun intended) in the coffee market late in 2013. I made the call on Facebook that coffee looked like a superb buy, and it was! Starting January 1st the coffee ETF 'JO' opened at around $22.50 and by about the second week of March it was $42.00.

   It was an outstanding run and normally I would continue to feel bullish about JO and the current pattern it has assumed except a report recently released suggests that summer in Brazil (source of most the coffee beans in the world) was not as dry as originally feared leading Bloomberg to speculate that current warehouse surpluses means coffee has entered a bear market.

   My own projection was that JO would bounce off the very firm resistance line established at around $34.00 and will now not come to pass. With this report now in hand I am revoking my "buy" signal on JO. New resistance should see at one of the many gaps established during it's ascent ($31.75, $29.50, and $28.00).

   Confusing the near term projections however is that although the dry spell in Brazil did not cause the damage to this year's crop to the level that was originally feared, some damage is expected and will not be known until July once the harvest is complete. This leaves a lot of questions about what percentage of the rise early in the year will be retraced. Between now and July the lower resistances will come into play but a bounce may also be expected in anticipation of the final losses.