Tuesday, June 03, 2014

Daily Commodities Report:

Agriculture: DBA
"Strong buy" signal is issued. Some of the indicators have finally turned around and we should see a breakout over the coming week.
  • RSI showed a strong upward signal today
  • The daily chart even shows its current level as a good site for a bounce as two resistance lines are converging. 

Aluminum: JJU
JJU appears to still be cresting. Because of the poorness of the data on the two hour chart its much hard to say what's happening. I would currently label JJU as a "hold."

Coal: KOL
A "minor buy" is being issued for KOL for those interested in perhaps taking advantage of small bounce that I believe is taking place. In the long run coal in general has much further to go down when one considers the recent macro-economic events of late so I won't even bother. The signal is very weak.
  • President Obama has just announced a further 30% reduction in commercial greenhouse gases.
  • China's recent natural gas deal with Russia is done to wean industry off of coal.
  • China has also announced the planning for a number of new nuclear facilities. 

Coffee: JO
A "buy signal" is being issued JO. I have reason to believe that the current downward channel will be broken. It doesn't appear to a particularly strong signal but upward momentum might begin to be seen. More should become clear in the coming trading sessions.

Commodities: DBC
DBC is also showing signs of life. I'd like to wait a day or two longer but a "weak buy" signal appears to be fomenting.

Corn: CORN
One of the "buy" signals I am a little more confident issuing, albeit another "weak" signal. I believe a base has formed and the signs of a weak breakout will become apparent.

Cotton: BAL
BAL is listed as a "weak buy" at the moment. I expect this ascent to be not so impressive as the channel is a little narrow and a bit on the steep side. Make sure to have some solid trailing stops in place.

Crude Oil: USO
I closed out my short at a very small profit. This was my fault as I was a little late issuing it due to glitches in some of algorithms as I was still getting the website established. Now the question becomes, "where is headed now?" Based on its trends over the last few months I can't quite say. In fact I'm still not sure this downward channel will be broken. I remain "neutral" on crude oil until some convincing signals become apparent.

Gold: GLD
GLD is listed as a "buy." Certainly a stronger one than some of the other commodities I've covered. A good base has developed and a shallow channel can be seen. It is not hugely impressive and as I have stated before this could be just a small bounce (in the grand scheme) that provides a brief interruption in an otherwise overall downward trend. Take advantage with caution.

Silver: SLV
SLV is also showing upwards movement and although it is tempting to list this as a "buy" the indicators (and particularly momentum) are telling me its not worth the bother. This will simply be an exercise in getting a better short position sometime in the next few trading sessions.

Lithium: LIT
I still hope everyone took advantage of the fantastic "buy" signal I issued around the third week of May. I'm revoking my "sell/short" because the movement is simply too shallow to be considered significant. I'd buy back in even though this still may decline a bit or even hit the furthest line on the channel.

Natural Gas: UNG
A "minor sell" signal is being issued and much stronger than my aborted one a week ago (again due to glitches in getting the website established). This is an opportunity to take some profits and buy in again at a lower value.

Palladium: PALL
Similar to LIT my hourly "sell/short" signal is being revoked. The upward channel feels far too strong at this stage to even be able to take advantage of a small bounce.
  • My daily "sell/short" signal issued over the weekend is still in place but it might be a while of horizontal movement before a profit is seen. PALL is looking strong.

Platinum: PPLT
According to the daily chart we have some distance to go before we hit my proposed resistance level at around $138.00, so for now let's keep PPLT listed as a "neutral." The last few buy and sell areas have been tight and steep so watch out for a "buy" in the coming days.

Soy Bean: SOYB
Presented without comment

Sugar: SGG
"Weak buy" signal issued, however on the daily scale (as I mentioned over the weekend) some more of this descending triangle pattern needs to play out. I don't think this is worth the bother.

Uranium: URA
A "sell" was issued and it stands. It may break back into the previous descending red channel and make contact with the lower limit line of the blue channel. This still has some distance to fall.
  • Remember that the overall daily chart is a massive downward channel with some pretty wild swings.

Wheat: WEAT
I was hoping more positive movement would have been seen at this stage on my foreseen "buy" recommendation but it looks like this is falling to at least $14.50 before some sort of pause is seen. Currently listed as "neutral." It has not made contact or even gotten close to the far descending limit line so I hope no one has purchased. It might even hit $14.00 or $13.50 based on the momentum seen on the daily charts. Let's hang back.

Copyright © Jakob Richardson 2014