Thursday, June 05, 2014

Daily Commodities Report:

In my enthusiasm to provide tangible information on good trades, I will admit one or two mistakes have been made but I've generally been pretty happy with the most of them so far. The first mistake I made was 'flip-flopping' on crude oil (USO). The second is agriculture (DBA), a recommendation I am personally invested in at the moment (remember the student debt). I apologise for these but the cobwebs are shaking lose and I am looking at much more polished product and so in the following two weeks we should be running a little more smoothly than the previous two weeks. As always on the weekend weekly reviews will take place and closer look at the bigger picture will take place.

Agriculture: DBA
I'm still correct on DBA and I haven't moved or changed the blue "buy" arrow, it's just that I recommended it a little too soon. Conferring with the daily charts confirms this. I truly believe that the gap set up on March 1st (on the daily chart) will be an area of significant resistance. We are currently at the lower line of resistance of the gap and very near the upper resistance band of the red descending channel.
  • The mistake I made was overlooking the momentum on the daily chart. The timing was correct but the momentum said, "soon."
  • Slope of MACD is a good early indicator and has already turned up and positive. Signal lines have crossed and have also turned up.
  • RSI is oversold. Two higher-lows have already been put in but I'm still waiting.
  • PPO is still negative but the slope has been up for a while and is almost positive.

Aluminum: JJU
I thought JJU was cresting but it's still moving up. I might eliminate this from the hourly review simply because without enough data points following it becomes a problem. My channels however have withstood the test.

Coal: KOL
KOL has broken out and currently in an upward channel. It has rejoined the original channel. KOL is having a great day, up by 1.41% at the time of writing.
  • The RSI lows that triggered the buy wasn't very strong.

Coffee: JO
The red descending channel that JO is in I think is coming to an end. An hourly "buy" has been issued. 

Commodities Index: DBC
DBC is a critical chart to pay attention to since it has a significant bearing on the general trend the others charts will have. Brief mention of the daily chart will be made where the lower limit of the red descending channel has been extended down a tiny bit. Contact with the lower limit of the larger ascending blue channel is near by and with only two previous taps made on it I would hazard a guess that a third is made in the near term followed by a bounce.
  • The hourly "buy" signal was early but I'm leaving it. I think a turn is imminent on the hourly chart, but most importantly, imminent on the daily chart.

Copper: JJC
I called the "short/sell" back on the 19th! The time has come to close that out and remain in a "neutral" stance. 
  • RSI 5 period on the hourly chart has indicated a bit of a bounce from here and the 14 period chart is approaching oversold which is the reason for my neutral stance.

Corn: CORN
I'm retracting my "buy" signal for CORN as you would be losing money at this point. I feared a descent last weekend to a lower resistance point at around $30.60 and I think that's where we are headed.
  • RSI on the hourly chart gave a good "buy" which has been negated by another lower-ish low.
  • If you have bought, I apologize, but thankfully the "buy" recommendation was not on the daily chart. Let's see this settle at the next resistance whereupon we should see a transition.

Cotton: BAL
BAL is doing some strange things...

Crude Oil: USO
Presented without comment.

Gold: GLD
Presented without comment.

Silver: SLV
Presented without comment.

Lithium: LIT
Phew! Thank goodness I told ya'll to buy back in! I was never concerned that the blue ascending channel would break down, just that those of you taking advantage of some of the bumps in its ascent may get caught off guard. 

Natural Gas: UNG
My "sell" signal stands as the RSI's are beginning to look a little tired. A third lower-high has been put in. On the daily view don't forget I said that resistance wasn't until about $26.30, so we still have some room to go.

Palladium: PALL
Presented without comment.

Platinum: PPLT
Great breakout seen today of the descending channel, however on the hourly chart I don't have a confirmed buy signal. A higher-low has not yet been made on the RSI.

Soy Bean: SOYB
Yup, so SOYB has in fact entered a new descending channel. This chart, like JJU, may also be switched over to review exclusively on the weekends because there is simply not enough hourly data.

Sugar: SGG
I regret issuing that "minor buy" earlier in the week. I did mention that it was 'probably not worth bothering about,' and as it turns out, it isn't. Thankfully I covered myself by showing the "buy" on the daily chart out in the third week of June where the two resistance lines converge. I don't even know if it's going to make it as today's breakdown does not auger well.

Wheat: WEAT
WEAT's sharp descending channel continues to hold, however so movement outside was made today and the resistance lines from a gap on the daily chart have been drawn into the hourly chart. Maybe they'll hold?

Copyright © Jakob Richardson 2014