Monday, June 09, 2014

Weekly Commodities Report: Full

Sorry everyone, I know I promised a little bit of an explanation with some of the transitions we are beginning to witness in the charts, I'll just provide them now.

Agriculture: DBA
DBA is being listed as a "buy." We had a great day on Friday and today we could see a bit of a pullback before breaking out of the channel. The pullback, which should stay above the resistance lines, will give me the confirmation single on the RSI I've been looking for - I've seen it on the RSI (5) but not yet on the RSI (14).

Aluminum: JJU
I previously issued a "sell" on JJU as you can see with the red arrow and that prediction is holding. JJU is currently trending in the large declining blue channel.

Coal: KOL
KOL is still a "buy." Earlier I stated that a bounce off the lowermost line of the ascending channel was a strong possibility while simultaneously warning of a possible breakdown. With only one tap on the lower channel line I felt a bounce was more likely and that too has come to pass. Strong resistance is at $19.20 to $19.40 which might be a good place to take profits. Once we're closer to that area let's revisit KOL and see if it can pass that resistance line (I think it will). 

Coffee: JO
JO had a really day on Friday also rising 2.28% and filling a small gap created a few trading sessions earlier. JO currently is "neutral." You'll see I do have a "buy" single (blue arrow) placed on the chart but have moved it forward closer to the edge of the of the channel. This means I would forecast a breakout but RSI signals have not appeared and the resistance line created by the gap back in February seems like a good intermediate resting point ($31.60) so I think JO actually has further to fall

Commodities: DBC
DBC is critical to watch at this point. We've been in a declining channel since April and finally on Thursday contact was made with lowermost line of the channel. DBC is listed as a "buy" however I have placed the arrow forward a little bit meaning I expect a little oscillation around this $25.80 area producing a better buying opportunity. RSI, MACD and TRIX haven't started to point upwards yet is the other reason I feel DBC will spend a bit of time at this level. This should be last bounce before it breaks down from the larger blue channel so please keep your stops tight.

Copper: JJC
I previously called the "sell" (very happy) but I was not anticipating such a steep decline. There isn't enough data to even dray a channel. I've put in the resistance lines at around $36.50 where it will likely take a bit a breather. This is not a buying site, merely an area JJC will be trending through.

Corn: CORN
I don't have a confirmed "buy" yet but CORN is getting there. I think the final resistance line is where the RSI signals will be put in which is why I have shown the upper line of the channel as a buy area. Watch the hourly charts during the week for an update.

Cotton: BAL
The technicals  are telling me that this decline has come to an end but my gut is telling me this has further to go. I'll list it as a "neutral" although I have put in a "buy" arrow I think it's very weak. I am conflicted with BAL so let's wait for a convincing move before making a "strong buy" recommendation.

Crude Oil: USO
I thought a bounce would happen off the intermediate blue channel line and it has (I'm showing two charts to convey the development of my thinking on this). My feelings however think that USO is creating a wider declining channel. My sell signal at the upper limit was perfect so I hope profits were taken, but the subsequent decline has been a little hard to read as my two graphs show. I wouldn't short because I'm not really sure where this is going in the long run. I do feel it is trending downwards and perhaps more data will make a clearer picture. USO is listed as "neutral."

Gold: GLD
On the hourly charts I have a shallow ascending channel drawn in. On the daily there isn't quite enough yet but my buy signal was already put in at the lower limit. This is a "weak buy" as I expect this new channel to be narrow and therefore not particularly strong. GLD might reach $122 before coming back down. Don't forget my feelings of long term weakness in precious metals. A "mega buy" signal will be issued once this period of weakness has finished but we have some time before that occurs.

Silver: SLV
I need this to be down to $17.75 before I start getting excited. The weird thing is that if you look at this long term chart we could be building up to a really crucial buy in the intermediate term but not until some critical resistance levels are tested.

Lithium: LIT
I think LIT is putting in a top so it's currently listed a "sell." We've had a good run and now it's time for a retracement.

Natural Gas: UNG
Like LIT, UNG is also approaching a critical resistance zone. It hasn't yet touched the line but UNG is listed as a "sell/short." This transition should form over the next week.

Palladium: PALL
Even though you would be losing money at this point I maintain a "sell" on PALL. It has the feel of one of those trends that's fizzing out.

Platinum: PPLT
No confirmed buy signal yet on PPLT so please watch the hourly reports during the week. I need higher low in before I can say "buy."

Soy Bean: SOYB
I've issued a "weak buy" on SOYB however I have mixed emotions when I look at a chart like this. I will be able to issue a new recommendation during the week but a little more data is needed.

Sugar: SGG
We're still waiting on SGG. I've got my "buy" arrow way out near the convergence of resistance lines so there's a little time still.

Uranium: URA
We might have another "buy" signal for URA this week. It's looking good but is unconfirmed at this point (the reason for the blue arrow being moved forward on the chart). Again, please wait for recommendations throughout the week.

Wheat: WEAT
WEAT had a big day and is severely oversold. I think it's a "buy."

Jakob Richardson © 2014