Thursday, July 17, 2014

Alert: Natural Gas (UNG) Breakdown

I have revoked my "buy" signal on UNG. Indicators such as the PPO and MACD are showing upward momentum but the market continues to pull the price downwards. This likely reflects a report by Goldman Sachs that a "super cycle" in commodities is ending in addition to decreased imports by Japan and increasing production and storage in North America.

The 15 minute chart shows how horizontal the stock has been for the past few days, sowing confusion that a possible bounce may occur after it contacted the lower resistance line. Momentum continues to collapse even the RSI is in oversold-neighborhood. The massive gap down is very bearish.

The 2 hour chart continued to confuse me as UNG drifted along the resistance lines for some time now. It now hides behind the second-to-last resistance line in this downward channel. You will also notice a new lower-resistance line has been drawn in after the lows of July 8th. Extending it upwards it matches perfectly with the extended rise on the 12th of June. A wider channel now gives more room for downward volatility to take place.

The daily chart has not yet reflected this breakdown. Two solid red lower resistance lines are in place in order to reflect a single uncharacteristic dip below the channel trend back on March 24th. One happens to be above an intermediate blue upward resistance line and the other below it. We have now fallen below that intermediate blue resistance line. Although my daily indicators which are usually quite accurate show the possibility of upward movement and a bounce off these levels, which may still happen, the trending is downwards. Resistance should first appear at around $22.25. issued a very bearish pronouncement on Natural Gas two days ago.

Jakob Richardson © 2014