Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Daily Charts: Commentary Update

Agriculture: DBA
Thankfully I've spotted the larger red downward channel that we are now firmly a part of and quite predictably a bounce took place on the lower most channel line. It's current inner blue channel uptrend looks a little too narrow so this blue channel may widen before finally falling back after touching the upper limit line.

Aluminum: JJU
Commentary appears in the image. I am very surprised to see it continue rising but our at least we know what the overall trend is. Calls will appear where appropriate.

Coal: KOL
KOL broke through my green line at which point a "buy" was issued and has since refused to let up. At the time of writing it has settled at the resistance set by a high in late April. Some of its recent bullishness might have something to do with an Australian/Indian coal deal that will be the largest of its kind. It could also mean that my red descending channel was just a temporary trend while it's recent climb now widens the original blue ascending channel. A break above today's point will clarify the picture to this. Listed as "neutral."

Coffee: JO
JO has had a good run too recently. I called a "buy" when it broke out from its inner red channel but now finds itself approaching a resistance point that was resistance in the previous cycle. If there are profits I'd take 50% of them and then gradually reduce as it rises to $37.00. It might continue on after pausing and then widening so let's continue wathcing this. 

Commodities: DBC
DBC does not look 'happy.' At the time of writing it is clinging for dear life on the border of my proposed ascending channel. My "buy" remains but I need some validation after this ascending channel widens a bit.

Copper: JJC
Some money was hopefully made when it broke out of it's current descending channel but I am now listing as a "sell/short" as this inner channel has simply widened. Let's return to whether we buy this again when it gets to $38.75 (there is only one previous tap on the channel limit line so the answer will probably be 'yes,' but as I said we will examine the issue again when it's closer to that price). Sorry for the muddled picture but a clearer one has emerged.

Corn: CORN
Comments appear within the image.

Cotton: BAL
Commentary appears within the image.

Crude Oil: USO
USO is listed as a "sell/short." Clearly international events are not playing the significance initially perceived as demand has been met comfortably. I am going to need to follow this closely too as an apparent inflection point has been reached.

Gold: GLD
Presented without comment ("sell/short")

Lithium: LIT
My "sell/short" recommendation remains as I feel a sell-off is building up. Daily charts for LIT are not looking positive. 

Livestock: COW
Near term weakness still seems evident in the chart but in the medium term I forecast another ascending channel to begin. A larger blue ascending channel may appear once the immediate term volatility resolves itself. Probably best to stay "neutral."

Natural Gas: UNG
UNG has firmed nicely on the lower most channel line. The question on my mind for the last two weeks has been, "where from here." One possibility is a proper bounce as we observed in May, a second being a trend taking on the approximate slope of the larger blue channel which would only take us to about $22.50 before declining again, or the third possibility of a complete breakdown. I'm leaning towards the second option, but only weakly.

Palladium: PALL
Presented without comment.

Platinum: PPLT
Still a weak "sell/short." The declining channel has been widened is all. PPLT will breakout above $149.00 in the medium term and has taken on a morphology similar to GLD and SLV.

Silver: SLV
Presented without comment.

Soy Bean: SOYB
SOYB's current weak ascending channel is holding. Still a "buy."

Sugar: SGG
I listed SGG as a "sell/short" yesterday with my forward looking red arrow and today prices fell 2.23%. Resistance is at $49.00.

Uranium: URA
Not much to say except everything looks good so far! My "sell/short" may have been a little early but near term weakness is evident, medium term however looks great!!

Wheat: WEAT
Urgh........





Jakob Richardson © 2014

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