Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Daily Charts:

Due to my absence I thought it best that I review the daily charts before I start reviewing the hourly charts (and not a moment too soon either as some interesting developments have taken place in my absence). Charts will be posted first with commentary written throughout the day, so please check back!

Agriculture: DBA
DBA has had a catastrophic fall lately and I believe it will soon be coming to an end. It has contacted the lower resistance line whereupon a final resting place around $25.85 ("buy") will be found. For the time being I think DBA will undertake some horizontal movement.

Presented without comment, but the upper resistance has been contacted ("sell/short").

Coal: KOL
I still have very bearish tendencies towards KOL. The downward red channel shown is firmly in control which has included a break from the upward blue channel. This breakdown might begin to pick up speed. You'll notice the green line has also exerted some control on this equity with a succession of lower highs. Listed currently as a "short/sell."

Coffee: JO
JO had a great day yesterday but you'll notice that it is currently filling a gap left back in February. For the time being JO is going to spend the next few sessions in the $30.50 to $31.50 trading range. My indicators are still pointing downwards so I am not yet issuing a "buy" signal on JO but this may be an area where it bounces out of the descending red channel.

Commodities: DBC
The declining red channel is firmly in control and a break has been made from the ascending blue channel. I believe a bounce will take place here in the $25.70 region before continuing it's descent. This latest descent I believe is due to falling prices in crude oil which is itself due for a brief bounce. I'm listing this as a "weak buy."

Copper: JJC
JJC is being listed as a "short/sell." There is a gap between $39.25 and $39.50 that needs to be filled so this will be JJC's first point-of-call in it's descent.

Corn: CORN
CORN is currently in a wide declining channel with surplus being reported in the United States despite mediocre weather. A bounce should be seen at this point (off of one lower resistance band and an intermediate resistance band of the larger declining channel) but time will be needed to determine whether this breaks out. What I am finding particularly troublesome is that after CORN's rise and fall out of the larger declining channel, it's current resistance has seemingly rejoined it. Does this mean with the high put in place back in May that the larger channel is now widened and the descent will continue? I would say 'yes.' CORN looks like it's still on a long term decline. An intermediate ascent to $28.50 is plausible but the big picture looks frighteningly similar to URA (a series of intermediate declining channels inside a massive decline).

Cotton: BAL
My call to "short/sell" cotton back in late June was perfect. Since then a sharp decline has taken place in a pattern that has required some widening. The bounce we are witnessing at $45.50 makes this a "weak buy" with my indicators showing signs of an impending upward trend. Closer to August we'll be able to tell whether this breaks out or not but for the moment horizontal movement should be largely seen.

Crude Oil: USO
USO is being listed as a "buy." A bounce in all likelihood will be witnessed off of it's current intermediate resistance line. Please be careful - this is still an extremely sensitive commodity given world events. 

Gold: GLD
The decline I have been waiting for finally arrived ("sell/short"). The COT reports are absolutely correct in identifying the presence of far too many speculative longs compared to institutional buyers. GLD will not breakout until a gradual increase in institutional longs has taken place ("smart money"). It is currently too early to identify the immediate declining channel that is developing but resistance at $124.40 looks the most plausible given the gap that occurred in late June on the way up.

Silver: SLV
I expect many of things I wrote for GLD apply to SLV however the volatility to be a bit greater. A "short" on SLV I think would be better than GLD.

Lithium: LIT
Presented without comment.

Livestock: COW
Contact has been made on the upper resistance band for the current declining channel but I am not seeing any momentum to suggest that a new channel is developing. If you have a "short" I would "hold" for now. The weekly chart suggests that the decline is just getting started with resistance at around $33.00.

Natural Gas: UNG
I've been carefully tweaking and adjusting my UNG chart and I think I have now identified the downward channel that is now unfolding within a larger ascending channel. Conveniently right now pause is being taken on an intermediate resistance line of the ascending channel and the lower resistance line of the descending channel. UNG is listed as a "buy." The triangle formation I was forecasting did not come to pass (instead creating the current channel seen in red) but in the immediate term a retracement of June/July's decline is in order.

Palladium: PALL
I've issued a "short/sell" signal on PALL.

Platinum: PPLT
I've issued a "sell/short" on PPLT. The ascending blue channel has been broken. Due to the convoluted nature of the ascending triangle resistance lines have been hard to find.

Sugar: SGG
The current declining red channel has come to an end. I am issuing a "buy" on SGG.

Uranium: URA
I think resistance will be found for URA at about $14.80. Since it's breakout of the declining red channel a larger declining triangle seems to be forming (created by the lines of the larger more massive declining channel that this is part of). Resistance really has firmed at $13.90 or so I do not expect this to fall further.

Wheat: WEAT
Presented without comment.

Jakob Richardon © 2014