Wednesday, July 02, 2014

"Naturally....it's a gas!"

I'm providing a separate medium to long-term update on natural gas (UNG). It's a commodity I watch closely since I have so little money to actually employ in the market that I feel it's useful to know at least two or three ETF's very very well.

As you can see from the daily charts shown UNG is currently in a declining triangle, a very bearish development, and has been since February. Additionally you'll notice I drew in the long term resistance lines of the larger asending channel that started back in 2012. My inclinations for UNG's movement over the medium to long term is a bounce from it's current level of $24.00 to the boundary of the declining slope at about $25.50 followed by a breakdown (movement shown with green arrows).


Interestingly another website I religiously follow and strongly recommend called Trading Channels has also forecast this trend but hasn't stressed the declining triangle pattern enough. In other words, successive lower-highs are being put in place.


The picture produced by Trading Channels appears almost the same as mine but because he is following the natural gas index and I'm following the ETF, his channel doesn't reflect the influence of the American dollar on price. My channel shows several lower resistance lines because it is wider and therefore shows where the eventual breakdown will come to rest ($23.00, $21.50, and around $19.00). He too expects a breakdown - looking at his chart he rightly points out (on his much tighter channel) that NATGAS has already touched the lower limit of his channel four times.

In summary, long term natural gas prices look set to fall over a considerable length of time after the bounce that is expected to take place over the next few weeks.