Thursday, July 31, 2014

Mounting concern regarding gold miners (GDX) and the juniors (GDXJ) in the immediate term

As an example I've used a 'transition' that was seen in the commodities ETF (DBC) some time ago. The area of interest has been highlighted with a green circle.

You'll see that leading up to the area in question was a steep ascent and then a gradual topping pattern characterized by a curve comprised of several data points clustered together in a very tight range. An "inverse hockey stick" pattern. What follows is an equally rapid decline testing the other channel resistance line.

This "hockey-stick" is being seen in several of precious metal mining companies, but more importantly, GDX and GDXJ. For both the proportions of the ascent are not been as dramatic as in the example I used for DBC, but if one uses their imagination the pattern holds. Similarily there appears to be what I fear is another topping pattern consisting a gentle curve cresting at the resistance line with a high concentration of data points clustered together in a tight range. I fear a steep fall in both ETF's with resistance around $23.25 for GDX and $35.00 for GDXJ.

From there, if the bullish scenario prevails (and it should with the higher lows we have been witnessing recently) they should stop there and reverse for a proper breakout.

Jakob Richardson © 2014