Thursday, September 11, 2014

At the open: "fucked" (DBC, COW, JO)

It was an ugly opening this morning. My channels a majority of the time are bang on when extrapolating into the future. Most of them already had a fairly severe downward pitch to them, but now I have to revise most of my channels and charts because the pitch just got a whole lot steeper. Case in point, DBC shown below:

Even after extending the channel lines today's opening is well outside the resistance lines. For a chartist two options present themselves in this situation: one, re-draw making a steeper channel but focusing on the middle data points in the trend to get the pitch right, or two, keep the channel the same but simply widen it.

The subtext is clear regardless of how I choose to present my data - the momentum downwards is gathering pace. I went short on Natural Gas a few days ago and I hope you all have taken some cover as well, but the pattern shown here is appearing in virtually every single commodity reported on this website (with the possible exception of livestock, COW).

Since breaking out of it's channel final week of July, COW has been moo-ving upward at breakneck speed (sorry, couldn't resist). It has now paused and is down 1.29% on the morning so far but the EMA(13) is above the EMA(34) and right on top of the MA(144).

Coffee ETF JO has also done some peculiar things this morning. After get smacked down 6.0% yesterday it has found resistance at a line I had previously drawn back in August. Holding this line will mean that the uptrend is still intact and that the channel has simply widened.

Jakob Richardson © 2014