Saturday, September 27, 2014

Commentary Update: Daily (and some Weekly) Charts

Agriculture: DBA
Commodities continue to take it on the chin and DBA is no different. It's spent the whole week in a declining channel after breaking support at $25.80. The one significant development that has occurred since I posted a "sell" on DBA at the beginning of September is now the MA(144) is pointing downwards. I do expect a relief rally at some point soon because the EMA(14) and EMA(34) are quite divergent. The StochRSI(14) indicator is below 0.2 so this is as good a place as any to have it!

On the monthly chart DBA has reached its lowermost support line. Looking at the indicators (which are almost all oversold) would suggest a relief rally as well. Any movement below this support would be ominous.

Aluminum: JJU
JJU has made a very erratic move downwards and on Thursday and Friday found support on the MA(144). The StochRSI(14) indicator is suggesting a move up from here which I think would take it to the upper resistance line of the current descending red channel. 

Coal: KOL
Presented without comment.

Coffee: JO
JO didn't turn out to be on the ascent I had previously envisioned but it is at least staying above a lower support point set in early August. An optimistic bounce off of it was seen around the 22nd of September and it continues to occupy the upper half of the larger descending channel. A lot of indicators have begun to crest upwards or have already crossed over.

Commodities: DBC
This continues to be a depressing chart to look at. Some optimism can be found in the fact that indicators are in the oversold region on the daily chart. This on its own doesn't say very much other than increasing the likelihood of a move upwards, but that's about it. In addition DBC has spent a lot of the last two weeks outside the Keltner channel so I would expect some movement back towards the median.

The monthly chart is 'shocking,' to say the least. The sharp narrow channel started back in July has not let up. The EMA(17) is well below EMA(43) at this point which is very bearish with indicators all in the oversold areas. Additionally this is the third close outside the Keltner channels so I would hope for some horizontal movement back to the channel region.

Copper: JJC
Economic data out of China coupled with the current global financial state continue to leave me feeling pessimistic about copper. It's current downward channel, that thankfully was identified very early on, is still very firmly in control. This week saw the movement of both EMA(13) and EMA(34) below the MA(144).

Corn: CORN
Presented without comment.

Cotton: BAL
This is probably the only "buy" I'm going to issue. Even though a break was made below support at $41.50 my indicators are showing signs of life telling me that perhaps a double bottom has formed. Next week will be critical, but if there is an ascent resistance will be at $45.00.

Crude Oil: USO
Let's be clear, short term USO will go up however long term I think USO is setting up for a breakdown. Any rise in oil will take it EMA(17) on the monthly chart, but from there given global oil supplies Libya coming back online I don't feel the attack on Syria is going to raising prices long term. As I have pointed out before, the ascending channel on the daily chart has already broken down so upper resistance is about $36.20. 

Conveniently for me the EMA(17) is at about exactly $36.00 so the upper resistance proposed on the daily chart makes sense.

Gold: GLD
I don't want to jinx it but Friday saw GLD find support at a long term support line (blue) just below $117.00! It is still part of a larger declining channel but we now have the foundation for another attempt on the resistance line at $126.00.

Lithium: LIT
Like many others LIT has entered the oversold region so I would expect some relief. LIT's downward channel was the narrowest and steepest of them all.

Livestock: COW
I'm going to issue a second "buy" on COW as it has confidently found support at the MA(144) with indicators cresting or crossing over. 

Natural Gas: UNG
As my readers will know I have previously complained about only having $2,000 to day trade with because medical school has bankrupted me and my family. The only thing I can trade in to make money is natural gas. I've been waiting for a turn up from its oversold status for some time but the continuation pattern goes on and on. So many of my indicators are right below the '0' point and will not cross up like TRIX, Coppock and KST.  A series of lower highs have been made at the end of August, September 9th, 17th, and this past Friday. I still think UNG is going to break down and find support at around $19.00 or $20.00.

Palladium: PALL
Presented without comment.

Platinum: PPLT
Presented without comment.

Silver: SLV
Presented without comment (daily and weekly charts are presented in case you need a hint).

Sugar: SGG
SGG had an odd week. It broke down from it's descending channel, fell some more then decided to post a strong rebound off of $40.20. This coming week let's see if this was the first half of a bottoming pattern.

Soy Bean: SOYB
Presented without comment.

Steel: SLX 
I called a "sell" on September 8th and that remains in place. This past week saw the EMA(14) cross the MA(144. As well please be observant of SLX's current place outside the Keltner channels.

Timber: CUT 
Presented without comment.

Uranium: URA
What I was afraid was going to happen, happened. Support broke down at $13.90 on Monday. I really like uranium and all the possibilities it holds for the future but the ascending channel I had so optimistically identified back in June didn't hold.

Wheat: WEAT
Presented without comment.

Jakob Richardson © 2014