Saturday, September 13, 2014

Update: Commentary for Weekly and Daily Charts

Agriculture: DBA
DBA broke down from a resistance line I had established back in August on the daily charts which is bad news. Quite clearly an attempt to break out of the larger red descending channel is off the books now. I mistakenly called a "buy" on the weekly chart once it had broken out off the inter-red channel, but that was subsequently corrected in a later chart. It continues to find resistance on the lowermost  channel line with EMA(17) just now falling below EMA(43). I expect some of the 'oversold' conditions to be worked off in the coming weeks but I'm not hopeful about any significant recovery in price. I see no reason for this not to continue sliding towards $23.00 and then $19.00 after that.

Aluminum: JJU
JJU also broke down from a long term ascending channel first established back in May. On the weekly chart a reversal was easy to call (in fact the red arrow was first put in two weeks ago) as it was approaching resistance lines at about $21.25 and $22.00. Overall on the weekly chart this is a bottoming pattern and the ranges for the security to oscillate between have now been established. The first signs of resistance on this downward leg should appear around $19.50.

Coal: KOL
KOL is above a diagonal resistance line (and touching) on the weekly chart but the EMA(17) is below the EMA(43). Some retracement upwards may happen in the coming week but longer term on the daily chart I don't have any problems seeing this return to $17.80.

Coffee: JO
JO is holding nicely at an intermediate resistance line. Additionally (on the weekly chart) the EMA(17) appears above the EMA(43) which is still bullish. News reports coming in say that coffee in some parts of Brazil will be lower than forecast but is offset by other reports that harvest numbers from Columbia are pretty good and therefore compensating for the loss further south quite nicely. Most recently however Vietnam is reporting their lowest coffee bean stores since 2011, so I am conflicted about how to call this stock. News says price may go higher, but fundamentals and a lower high in August leave the declining red channel firmly in control. My best advice is to stay "neutral" while we wait for more of my indicators to turn up.

Commodities: DBC
I complained about this already earlier in the week but DBC is appearing outside an already declining channel. This index commodity does not auger well for the market in the coming weeks. Major indicators like the Coppock curve and the KST have only recently turned down despite the fact this thing has been seriously sliding since late June. Shorting opportunities abound!

Copper: JJC
The daily chart is showing a declining red channel that is firmly in control and a weekly chart that just this past week has broken down from a long term ascending channel that started back in March. Another bottoming pattern looks to be developing and if you can short I would.

Corn: CORN
CORN continues to get slaughtered but funnily enough it has just this week made contact with the lowermost channel line on the weekly chart that I said way back in June it had a slim chance of meeting. Well, here we are and a bumper harvest is upon us. Some recovery in price has to take place over the next few weeks due to, one, the resistance line contact made, but two, it is currently outside the Keltner bands.

Cotton: BAL
I widened the channel to accommodate the rise we have had in September and we now find ourselves back at the $46.00 resistance line. The EMA's on the daily chart are still bearishly positioned but a buying opportunity may be presenting itself after a retracement is made.

Crude Oil: USO
I'll call it - crude oil will continue to fall. Not only is their a political motivation to see the price lower than is traditionally normal, namely Putin needs oil between $100 and $110, but I read recently 7 out of 8 barrels of oil from new sources in 2015 will be from the United States. On the weekly chart the EMA(17) just crossed below the EMA(43). A price for USO around $32.50 is expected.

Gold: GLD
I said that I expected gold to go to $1230 but precious metals are looking increasingly bleak, so why not further? The long term upward resistance band set back decades ago I think is about to breach and many technical analysts (myself included) are expecting a further slide to $1150. The gap down on Friday was an ominous sign.

Lithium: LIT
I still like LIT. I want to see a bounce off of the EMA(43) on the weekly chart which would be a great buying opportunity.

Livestock: COW
The ascent from late August has been impressive but a breakdown of the this narrow blue ascending channel happened on Friday (daily chart). If this bull run is to continue I want to see it bounce off of EMA (13) or (34) on the daily chart in the coming week. The EMA(13) did move above the MA(144) so everything is falling into place for a possible buying opportunity next week.

Natural Gas: UNG
I'm sick and fucking tired of Natural Gas, so here we go. A lower high was made on the daily chart last week. Additionally an article appeared on warning UNG may be exhibiting some bullish tendencies, but all that has happened since August argued this author is the production of a continuation pattern. The descent from June will continue and after last weeks EIA report I can see why. Natural gas is plentiful and easily accessible. The EMA's are still bearishly positioned and an unexpectedly large injection of gas took place last week (more than forecast).

Palladium: PALL
A resistance line with a little red arrow was put in a week or two ago at about $87.50 for a reason. 

Platinum: PPLT
Presented without comment.

Silver: SLV
Just as a critical resistance point appeared recently for gold, so too is one now appearing for silver. We already have three touches on this line making this week's the fourth one to happen at $18.00. If it slides further I don't know where it'll end up...$16.00 perhaps? Next week should tell us but from where I'm sitting, it doesn't look. I'm putting my money on a further fall.

Sugar: SGG 
Presented without comment.

Soy Bean: SOYB
It just keeps falling....

Steel: SLX
A breakdown of a long term resistance line on the weekly chart appeared which does not bode well. This past week was an excellent "short" opportunity as I expect this has further to fall.

Timber: CUT 
Recently CUT has being very well but I advise for those of you invested in it to sell your positions (or "short"). The downward channel is firmly in control with a successive chain of lower-highs and lower-lows. Furthermore on the weekly chart the EMA(17) looks set to cross the EMA(43).

Uranium: URA
I really like uranium so I really want to see the price start to recover at about $14.00 but I just don't think that's going to happen. A strike at a Cameco mine just ended which will unfortunately be bearish for prices in addition to the Cigar Lake Mine moving towards full production. The chart feels like it's going to land somewhere below $14.00.

Wheat: WEAT
Well, thankfully WEAT doesn't have further to fall! On the weekly chart this should be making contact around $11.40 so an excellent buying opportunity may appear next week.

Jakob Richardson © 2014