Sunday, August 31, 2014

Daily and Weekly Charts: Commentary Update

Agriculture: DBADBA broke out of the resistance set by the two previous lower highs. The bottoming pattern is taking shape nicely with EMA(13) and EMA(34) converging on the daily chart. I expect another dip towards the base resistance at $25.80 before breaking out firmly from the descending red channel.


Aluminum: JJU
Since the call-to-buy in June when it broke out from the long term descending channel JJU has been on a great run. But all great runs must come to an end, or at the very least take a bit of a "breather." On the monthly chart I have forecast resistance around $21.25 and $22.00. I am expecting a retracement here while the MA(144) on the monthly chart plays catch-up. If you have profits in JJU I'd take them (or "short") as a return to $17.00 is possible. The descent to this current pattern took years which means the oscillation between resistance bands in this bottom could also take a while. Right now we're trying to find the range it's going to trade in while market sentiment firms.


Coal: KOL
KOL's mid-August break out was a bit of a surprise but it's fall since then hasn't been. It had had a great run and needed to blow off some of the over-bought conditions. Downward pressure is still present however KOL is very bullishly positioned. On the daily chart it's above all three moving averages and on the weekly chart it's above the EMA(21). On the weekly chart it's been "bottoming" since before 2014. In the immediate future I expect a little more downward movement but otherwise I expect it to turn back up after it touches the EMA(21) on the weekly chart (not much further to go).


Coffee: JO
I've said this last week and I'm still saying it now, JO looks really really good. Agricultural data has emerged that forecasts the strong possibility of higher coffee prices for the next two years while Brazil contends with its current drought. The daily charts appear quite dangerous and I'm taking a huge risk encouraging people that now is a "buy" opportunity. As you can see on the daily chart it's approaching the upper-most resistance band after gaping up 5% on Wednesday. It currently sits above all three moving averages and overall bears a suspicious similarity to KOL - both are sitting at an upper resistance line, both had a recent lower high, both are positioned identically with relation to their moving averages. With both KOL and JO what really clinches it for me is the weekly chart. Both are above the EMA(21) and sitting right in the middle of a larger channel.


Commodities: DBC
DBC had to turn up, it just had to. Two weeks ago in bounced off of a resistance line at $24.75 put in place with two market lows in July of 2012 and December 2013. It's good to get some relief. However, big picture view is that the moving averages are all quite far off. Also, on the weekly chart it is still part of a massive downward channel (shown with the blue dotted lines), breakout from which will take the better part of 2015 and maybe even 2016. This current blue channel on the weekly chart is firmly in control and represents a great buying opportunity in addition to foreshadowing the commodities battling back for the remainder of the year. 


Copper: JJC
On the weekly chart JJC broke out in June but has struggled ever since when I called a "sell/short." I'm having a hard time developing a consensus at the moment, but if you had to ask me how I "feel" about it, I'd say this will probably breakdown from it's current blue channel (weekly chart) and test the bottom resistance at $35.00 sometime in the coming weeks. On the daily chart, the recent "surprise" high put in on Tuesday merely widened the downward channel it was previously occupying. The EMA's on the daily chart are moving toward the MA(144) and there's no reason they shouldn't cross.


Corn: CORN
CORN is pretty self explanatory at this stage. No further comment.


Cotton: BAL
On the daily chart BAL is also bottoming. The day after it topped out at around $46.00 I called a "sell/short." We are well below the MA(144) which means most of the time BAL can be found well below the EMA(13) (any stock for the matter) and then periodically it will move above it before collapsing below it again, all the while the EMA(34) is getting closer and closer. This is one of those "oh, it's so close" convergences between EMA(13) and EMA(34). I expect on the daily chart for BAL to move back towards $42.00.


Crude Oil: USO
Saudi Arabia warned that the recent weakness in oil prices was temporary, conveniently said while USO was on the lowermost resistance line and then looking rather strong. Confusingly Zero Hedge reported the removal of the most crude oil longs in market history. It's a politically charged commodity so please tread carefully. I think USO is a "buy."


Gold: GLD
On the weekly chart we will find GLD currently sitting on a resistance line I had drawn in about five weeks ago (you're welcome). This coming week will reveal whether GLD turns up making last week a higher low or whether it continues with it's current display of weakness and breaks down. The data tells me it's going to breakdown, but September statistically is the strongest month for gold. This is a critical moment for gold. 


Lithium: LIT
I erroneously thought a breakdown was possible, but luckily it clustered around $13.40 and I changed my mind. LIT is looking pretty good with the EMA(13) above the EMA(34). On the weekly chart all the conditions look set for a breakout above $14.00.


Livestock: COW
Presented without comment.


Natural Gas: UNG
I have been quietly biding my time waiting for a significant move in UNG and I think that moment has arrived. On the daily chart it appears that the EMA(13) is about to move above the EMA(34). When you mentally factor in this upward momentum you can see how on the weekly chart UNG is at the EMA(21) which is very bullish. Convenient, since it's that time of the year. 


Palladium: PALL
I think PALL has reached a very significant long term resistance point, put in place with higher highs from January 2012 and March 2013. Next week should be critical.


Platinum: PPLT
Presented without comment.


Silver: SLV
I don't see any reason on the weekly chart why SLV can't continue sliding to $18.00. On the daily chart it's taken a bit of a pause (in the middle of nowhere I might add) but I think it's downward channel is just widening and then the descent it had started with will continue.


Sugar: SGG 
I apologize but I think I may have put in a blue "buy" arrow on the daily chart a little early. On the weekly chart SGG still has some distance to go before coming into contact with the lowermost resistance line. The daily chart will be re-drawn, I promise.


Soy Bean: SOYB
I'm taking a bit of gamble here too but I think SOYB has found a resistance point and will not retrace some of it's loses. SOYB is a "buy."


Uranium: URA
Not much to say except that that URA still looks good.


Wheat: WEAT
After a bit of a false-start a bottom appears to be forming on the weekly chart. WEAT is a speculative "buy" at this point but so far I like what I'm seeing.






Jakob Richardson © 2014

Saturday, August 30, 2014

Commodities Report: Daily and Weekly Charts

Commentary will appear tomorrow.

Agriculture: DBA


Aluminum: JJU


Coal: KOL


Coffee: JO


Commodities: DBC


Copper: JJC


Corn: CORN


Cotton: BAL


Crude Oil: USO


Gold: GLD


Lithium: LIT


Livestock: COW


Natural Gas: UNG


Palladium: PALL


Platinum: PPLT


Silver: SLV


Sugar: SGG


Soy Bean: SOYB


Uranium: URA


Wheat: WEAT






Jakob Richardson © 2014