Friday, January 16, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily and Weekly Charts

Agriculture: DBA
  • The weekly chart we've hit the lower band for the second time. I have feeling the fall in agriculturals is about to accelerate.
  • DBA changed to a strong short.


Aluminum: JJU
  • On the weekly chart JJU has found support at $17.50 after a decline since November. There will be a pause here before resuming it's slide
  • The pause will serve to widen it's current downward channel. After the second fall I think nice bottom will be in place, but that's not expected until 2Q of this year.
  • JJU is being listed as short.


Coal: KOL
  • KOL has broken below the critical $14.20 support. It is currently positioned in the middle of the large descending channel means this has a lot of room to continue falling.
  • The fall in coal is likely to accelerate and won't stop until contact is made with the blue dotted line on the weekly chart. 
  • KOL is a short.


Coffee: JO
  • Sorry, but the recent agricultural reports coming in on global coffee stocks blindsided me. I don't have the time I used to to be able to follow this closely. 
  • Regardless of the strength of coffee stocks I know think JO will get dragged down with the rest of commodities. 
  • It's taken a long time but I have revised the channels governing JO on the weekly charts into something more accurate. Please note that the EMA(17) has just crossed below EMA(43).
  • JO is listed as a short.


Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a short.


Copper: JJC
  • The weekly chart now shows the scale of the breakdown from the expanding 'megaphone' pattern. Interestingly it has contacted the lower band of the declining channel. This could be a bottom.
  • JJC listed as neutral.


Corn: CORN
  • Please take profits on CORN
  • On the daily charts I previously warned that "EMA's have all crossed and are headed downwards. In the long term I still like CORN, but now it's time to catch our breath and rejoin CORN once a higher low has formed."
  • The weekly charts are showing a break in the channel. 
  • CORN is listed as a short.


Cotton: BAL
  • Still above critical support at $40.00.
  • Listed as a weak short.


Crude Oil: USO
  • $BPENER index is below 20 meaning this thing horribly oversold.
  • A short signal is still issued. USO continues to astound and amaze me. Feels like 2008 all-over again.


Gold: GLD
  • EMA(13) above EMA(34) on the daily chart along with the EMA(4) above the EMA(9). 
  • On the weekly chart it has hit the upper blue dotted resistance line. A pull back should ensue followed by a higher low and a proper breakout. Watch the consolidation pattern on the weekly chart closely.
  • GLD between $120.00 and $110.00 is a buy and accumulation zone.  
  • Gold is now a strong buy long term, but a near term short.


Lithium: LIT
  • Sitting at a crucial support level at $11.00.  
  • Lithium is changed to neutral.


Livestock: COW
  • Livestock was listed a strong short and the weekly charts and the daily charts are now reflecting this.


Natural Gas: UNG
  • We had a terrific day on Wednesday when UNG climbed over 10%. I was in the triple leveraged ETF UGAZ and sold at 27% so I'm pretty happy. We are still in the declining channel but our gap up mid-week is a good sign. I expect a small pull back before an eventual breakout. I would gradually accumulate natural gas positions while a higher low is formed.
  • Like many commodities at the moment, UNG is holding at the low put in during Q1 2012.
  • The XNG natural gas index was reported in an article on CNBC as having a 19% return over the last 20 years between the months of February and June. 
  • Natural gas storage levels are still below the five year average.
  • Momentum indicators are beginning to cross over positively. 
  • Natural gas is listed as a buy. I am very certain a bottom is forming as the mean StochRSI indicator is now finally crawling out above the 20 line.


Palladium: PALL
  • Daily chart looks like a bearish flag. Fall towards $71.00 is still predicted. 
  • EMA's on the weekly chart are all holding at the same level. PALL is gradually moving towards the final channel support line.
  • Palladium is listed as a strong short.


Platinum: PPLT
  • Close today outside of declining channel which is a bullish sign. 
  • The daily chart is showing a bullish convergence of the EMA(13) above the EMA(34). Possible bottom in at $114.50.   
  • EMA(4) has moved above EMA(9). 
  • I see resistance at around $125.00.
  • Platinum is still listed as a speculative buy.


Silver: SLV
  • A very big break above resistance of $16.50 on the daily charts.
  • Pullback expected in the coming week but this should continue it's march upwards now that clearer picture has emerged on the channel.
  • Silver is a buy.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Support broke today in a very disconcerting development.
  • Soy has been changed to a short all the way to about $19.00.


Steel: SLX 
  • Weekly chart is not very helpful here however the daily chart is saying that the declining red channel is firmly in-charge with no chance of the perceived bounce.
  • Steel is listed as short.


Sugar: SGG
  • Odd! The EMA(4) has moved above the EMA(9) and the critical EMA(13) and (34) are converging.
  • Sugar is listed as a neutral.


Timber: CUT
  • Timber is still a strong short first to $23.40, then all the way to $22.80 to $22.5.


Uranium: URA
  • Head and shoulders pattern has come to fruition.  
  • Uranium is a strong short all the way $6.00 and beyond.


Wheat: WEAT
  • Retracement towards $10.60 is foreseen. 
  • Wheat is a short on the daily chart.



Jakob Richardson © 2015