Thursday, January 22, 2015

Commodities Report: Weekly Charts

Before I go away for ten days on business I want to post the weekly charts because several interesting things are happening. Of particular important is the appearance of lumber (CUT) which is precariously positioned for a fall and has been listed as a short for some time. Zero Hedge observed this morning that more than copper (JJC) or oil (USO), lumber tracks the economy the best. Despite the ECB news due this week and I believe a fall in the stock market is upon us. 

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA still listed as a strong short.
  • The fall has begun to pick up speed. We are entering the final phase of it's collapse as it has now broken down from the original declining channel.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is being listed as a long term short despite the apparent bottom. I noted this on the daily charts.
  • A bounce will occur whereupon the decline will continue. The descending channel for aluminum will simply widen as it goes downwards.
  • Resistance at $19.00.

Coal: KOL
  • KOL is listed as a short.
  • I don't know where the bottom-most line is but it looks to be between $13.00 and $13.50. A pause will take place but I don't expect it to hold either.

Coffee: JO
  • JO is listed as a short.
  • The revised declining channel (which has taken months to identify by the way) appears to be firmly in control. 

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a short.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as neutral.
  • The bounce off of the lower channel happened nicely by about a dollar, but I expect it to return to the $30.00 level.

Corn: CORN
  • Please take profits on CORN. It's hard to say this because I have been very strong on agriculturals but a fall back to $22.50 looks to be taking place.
  • All EMA's appear to crossing downward.
  • CORN is listed as a short.

Cotton: BAL
  • Listed as a short.
  • BAL has been falling since contact with the EMA(21) was made.

Crude Oil: USO
  • $BPENER index is below 20 meaning this thing horribly oversold.
  • A neutral signal is issued.

Gold: GLD 
  • Gold is now a speculative short. There needs to be a pause in this ascent. 
  • Euro ECB action has reduced demand for gold.

Lithium: LIT
  • Lithium is changed to neutral.

Livestock: COW
  • Livestock was listed a strong short on the weekly charts and the daily charts three weeks ago so I hope you all took advantage. 
  • It is currently outside the Keltner channels so a pause will occur whereupon it will resume it's fall to $25.50.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a neutral. Weather report issued on Bloomberg stated that higher than expected temperatures were expected for the next two weeks. 
  • Current gas stores are below the five year average. A high risk speculative buy could be made off of the bounce at $15.00.

Palladium: PALL
  • Palladium is listed as a strong short
  • I called a bounce back to the EMA's with a resumption of the fall back in November. This is not a 'happy' pattern.
  • First stop is $70.00.

Platinum: PPLT
  • Platinum is still listed as a short
  • It has met resistance at $125.00 and will likely return to $115.00. The problem is that it there is still a lower resistance limit far below it which it might contact later this year. Will $115.00 hold?

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a speculative short. It too has approached a critical resistance level established back in June and February of last year so profits should be taken.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Soy has been changed to a short all the way to about $18.25, the low established in June of 2012.

Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as neutral.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is listed as a neutral. A bottom looks like it's going in however the declining channel may just be widening. Let's watch closely.
  • I expect a fall as Indian sugar refineries are apparently inundated with product and hoping for export subsidies.

Timber: CUT
  • Timber is still a strong short first to $23.40, then all the way to $22.80 to $22.5.

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a strong short all the way $6.00 and beyond.
  • Head and shoulders pattern was confirmed.

Wheat: WEAT
  • Retracement towards $10.60 is foreseen. 
  • Wheat is a short on the daily chart.

Jakob Richardson © 2015