Sunday, March 22, 2015

Commodity Report: Daily Charts

A lot of charts are showing an imminent breakout from their long-term declining channels (KOL, UNG, DBC, JJC, USO, COW) and it has developed into something of a theme recently. I'm not yet convinced that these are genuine breakouts instead of bottoming patterns or consolidation areas that will simply widen the existing declining channel. Precious metals (GLD, SLV, PPLT, PALL) are also showing near-term strength and have all been upgraded to speculative long/buy's. I am not convinced yet that this is the beginning of a long-term trend, though.

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA still listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • Agriculture didn't break down as I feared it would after coming into contact with the last long-term support line. Since then it has made four strong moves.
  • My PMO indicator crossed over which is bullish sign and my momentum indicators are suggesting that a double-bottom has just been completed.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is still listed as a short/sell
  • JJU is still stuck in the lower half of the declining red channel and has been for some time. Support has been put in at $17.00 and appears ready for an imminent breakdown. 

Coal: KOL
  • Daily chart shows KOL as a neutral
  • Still have a bearish configuration on the EMA's, however, my long term MACD indicator is about to turn up just my PMO is about to crossover too.
  • The long term descending channel looks like it might finally break upwards.

Coffee: JO
  • JO remains a speculative long/buy
  • Support looks good at $22.50 but I'm afraid I am not able to comment on JO's strange behavior of breaking down from it's previous channel and now rejoining it.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a neutral.
  • Support at $16.75 has continued to hold and a breakout from the long-term descending channel appears imminent. 
  • No crossovers on my long-term indicators have been seen so let's just wait a few days and see what happens.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as a speculative buy on the daily charts. 
  • Can someone else explain this to me? One of the prime indicators for global economic health is looking, well, kind of healthy. 
  • EMA's have made a bullish crossover, albeit far below the MA(144) still. 
  • Copper is going to have to be watched closely.

Corn: CORN
  • CORN has been switched to a neutral.
  • We're so close to the uppermost resistance line with a great day on Friday and the EMA's pinching closer (although still bearishly aligned).

Cotton: BAL
  • Listed as a speculative buy/long
  • I'm sensing a strong turnaround for cotton here in the chart and have upgraded it's status. Momentum looks quite strong where another move above the last descending channel resistance line might be seen. 
  • This is still a speculative investment. Some great in-roads have been made however I want to see this well and truly above the MA(144) and my long-term indicators a little more bullishly configured.

Crude Oil: USO
  • A sell/short signal is now issued.


Gold: GLD 
  • Gold is still a speculative buy on the daily charts.
  • The call six sessions ago was a good one and precious metal markets have been reaping the benefit after the Fed's statement.
  • My long term indicators are poised to crossover however I feel like this most recent ascension is still temporary.

Lithium: LIT
  • Lithium is still listed as a speculative long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • My short-term indicators have crossed over and my long-term indicators are not far behind.
  • The long tail made three days ago I think is the higher low signalling an ascending triangle.

Livestock: COW
  • COW is still listed as a long/buy.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • This is the riskiest position I am in currently! It is still holding above my diagonal resistance line and the engulfing bull pattern is still present. 
  • We still have a series of higher lows which I also like. So much momentum has developed over the last four months I can't imagine this not breaking out.

Palladium: PALL
  • Palladium is listed as a speculative long/buy.

Platinum: PPLT
  • Platinum is still listed as a speculative long/buy.

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a speculative buy.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Soy is still a neutral.
  • We are approaching support at $19.30 and $19.10. 
  • Momentum on the longer term charts has not yet turned positive so a more permanent breakout should occur over the coming weeks.

Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as speculative long/buy.
  • A breakout of the long-term declining channel looks imminent.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is being switched to a speculative long/buy on the daily charts.

Timber: CUT 
  • CUT is listed as a long term buy.

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a strong short/sell.

Wheat: WEAT
  • Wheat is speculative long/buy on the daily chart. 
  • The breakdown of the $10.65 level made me feel quite pessimistic about wheat but looking at the longer term momentum charts so some strong divergence is developing. 
  • Very strong resistance at $11.60.


Jakob Richardson © 2015

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