The FOMC report that came out this afternoon was 'dovish' but it did not rule out the possibility of a rates rise in June. In the meantime I got hammered shorting gold and ironically it looks like a 'buy' at the moment. The market still looks a little too hot for my liking with biotechnology stocks falling dramatically a few days back, but all of this may be changing as we enter the spring/summer trading season. Of particular note is that the American dollar is currently getting pummeled and no one seems to have noticed or commented on this. I think this development is quite bullish for commodities. In closing, I think the reason this particular period is so hard to trade is because the market is pivoting downwards.
- DBA is still listed as a neutral.
- The fall in the American dollar has made me reconsider the fall in commodities.
- JJU is still listed as a speculative long/buy.
- Daily chart shows KOL as a speculative long/buy.
- Consolidation pattern continues to unfold with lower support at $13.40 and upper resistance at $14.20.
- JO is now a neutral.
- This is a strategic pause but I think coffee will continue onwards and upwards.
- EMA's are consolidating nicely and poised to cross-over.
- DBC is listed as a long/buy.
- Upper target of $18.30 is approaching. Please be mindful of this.
- JJC listed as a long/buy on the daily charts.
- My medium term KST indicator has crossed upwards.
- A large bearish pennant has taken shape however in the meantime this means JJC will be ascending.
- Upper target of $36.00.
- CORN has been switched to a neutral.
- BAL is listed as a speculative short/sell.
- Upper limit of current pennant is at around $46.00
Crude Oil: USO
- A short/sell signal is now issued.
- I don't like USO. I called a short/sell at it's current resistance of $20.00 and it looks poised to breakout. When it does breakout, I'll still list it as a short sell because COT draw downs are still less than forecast and production in Saudi Arabia continues to ramp up.
- I have inserted some blue fan lines so I now expect a much needed retracement to occur around $21.00.
- Please continue watching USO skeptically.
- GLD is listed as a speculative long/buy.
- The head-and-shoulders pattern did not materialize. Couple this with a fall in the U.S. dollar and my near term indicators are pointing upwards.
- I apologize for the incorrect call a week ago but this has been an extremely frustrating period.
- Lithium is listed as a long/buy on the daily charts.
- Smashed through the resistance line and didn't even pause like I thought it might.
- COW is now listed as a long/buy.
Natural Gas: UNG
- Natural gas is listed as a speculative long/buy.
- Still a speculative long/buy but I have tried to identify a bullish pennant that developed inside a declining channel.
- Palladium is listed as a long/buy.
- Break out from diagonal resistance. I should have released a buy signal three days ago.
- Platinum is still listed as a long/buy.
- PPLT has also emerged from it's long term declining channel.
- Silver is a neutral.
Soy Bean: SOYB
- Soy is listed as a speculative short/sell.
- Steel is still listed as long/buy.
- SLX broke out of it's long term declining channel and crossovers have been seen in both the short and long term KST's.
- Sugar is being switched to a long/buy on the daily charts in the medium term.
- CUT is listed as a strong short/sell.
- Bearish pennant has formed so please take profits. CUT broke the diagonal support line today.