I've been worried about the trajectory of the general market since about January 2013. More and more websites and casual market observers such as myself in recent weeks have begun to make a lot more noise regarding the bear flag that's been developing in the SPX and associated index funds where the worry has begun to find it's way into the 'legitimate' news (I can recall recent memories of Marketwatch and Bloomberg running similar articles a week or two ago). I have restrained myself from making big pronouncements on market direction for a long time but it's an urge I can no longer hold back. I implore all who read this website to please exercise extreme caution in the immediate to medium-term time frame and keep the majority of your positions in cash.
- JO is still a speculative long/buy.
- We had a break outside it's current downward channel today.
- Upper target of $26.50 is still on deck.
- JJC listed as a neutral on the daily charts.
- A large bearish pennant had begun to taken shape and has already broken down. This is not a positive development and copper has just had it's worst day in a month.
- EMA's are still below the MA(144) and they themselves have begun to cross over bearishly.
- Lower resistance of around $31.75
Crude Oil: USO
- A short/sell signal is now issued.
- It has reached the upper resistance at $20.00. A small retracement should take place next week to $18.50.
- USO continues to close in on the MA(144) and the medium and short term KST's have both crossed over bullishly.
- Please continue watching USO skeptically.
- GLD is listed as a speculative sell/short.
- My predictions of a head-and-shoulders pattern developing took a very big step forward today. We had a decline of 1.33% with the diagonal resistance not being breached.
- My pessimism for GLD also applies to the other precious metal ETF's PALL, PPLT, and SLV.
- If there is increased volatility next week this would support my thesis of lower gold prices.
Natural Gas: UNG
- Natural gas is listed as a speculative long/buy.
- I shouldn't be hyper-examining natural gas but I have to because I need to make money to pay off student debt!
- I have been going on and on about how UNG had to either make a significant drop or break-out of it's downward channel because lateral room is declining. The last few trading days have been very encouraging and with the EIA's weekly energy report being released tomorrow we'll find out better where UNG is headed.
- The long-term momentum trajectory has been very positive.
- Sugar is being switched to a short/sell on the daily charts.
- One of my favourite commentators at tradingchannels.co.uk has become bullish on sugar in the medium to long-term so I'd just like to remind everyone that at least for the near-term I am still bearish.