Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily Charts

The FOMC report that came out this afternoon was 'dovish' but it did not rule out the possibility of a rates rise in June. In the meantime I got hammered shorting gold and ironically it looks like a 'buy' at the moment. The market still looks a little too hot for my liking with biotechnology stocks falling dramatically a few days back, but all of this may be changing as we enter the spring/summer trading season. Of particular note is that the American dollar is currently getting pummeled and no one seems to have noticed or commented on this. I think this development is quite bullish for commodities. In closing, I think the reason this particular period is so hard to trade is because the market is pivoting downwards.

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA is still listed as a neutral.
  • The fall in the American dollar has made me reconsider the fall in commodities.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is still listed as a speculative long/buy

Coal: KOL
  • Daily chart shows KOL as a speculative long/buy
  • Consolidation pattern continues to unfold with lower support at $13.40 and upper resistance at $14.20. 

Coffee: JO
  • JO is now a neutral.
  • This is a strategic pause but I think coffee will continue onwards and upwards.
  • EMA's are consolidating nicely and poised to cross-over.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a long/buy.
  • Upper target of $18.30 is approaching. Please be mindful of this.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as a long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • My medium term KST indicator has crossed upwards. 
  • A large bearish pennant has taken shape however in the meantime this means JJC will be ascending. 
  • Upper target of $36.00.

Corn: CORN
  • CORN has been switched to a neutral.

Cotton: BAL
  • BAL is listed as a speculative short/sell
  • Upper limit of current pennant is at around $46.00

Crude Oil: USO
  • A short/sell signal is now issued.
  • I don't like USO. I called a short/sell at it's current resistance of $20.00 and it looks poised to breakout. When it does breakout, I'll still list it as a short sell because COT draw downs are still less than forecast and production in Saudi Arabia continues to ramp up. 
  • I have inserted some blue fan lines so I now expect a much needed retracement to occur around $21.00.
  • Please continue watching USO skeptically.

Gold: GLD 
  • GLD is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • The head-and-shoulders pattern did not materialize. Couple this with a fall in the U.S. dollar and my near term indicators are pointing upwards.
  • I apologize for the incorrect call a week ago but this has been an extremely frustrating period.

Lithium: LIT
  • Lithium is listed as a long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • Smashed through the resistance line and didn't even pause like I thought it might.

Livestock: COW
  • COW is now listed as a long/buy.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • Still a speculative long/buy but I have tried to identify a bullish pennant that developed inside a declining channel.

Palladium: PALL
  • Palladium is listed as a long/buy.
  • Break out from diagonal resistance. I should have released a buy signal three days ago.

Platinum: PPLT
  • Platinum is still listed as a long/buy.
  • PPLT has also emerged from it's long term declining channel.

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a neutral.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Soy is listed as a speculative short/sell.

Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as long/buy.
  • SLX broke out of it's long term declining channel and crossovers have been seen in both the short and long term KST's.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is being switched to a long/buy on the daily charts in the medium term.

Timber: CUT
  • CUT is listed as a strong short/sell.
  • Bearish pennant has formed so please take profits. CUT broke the diagonal support line today.

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a neutral.
  • A pause is needed after it's incredible rise. 

Wheat: WEAT
  • Wheat is now a short/sell on the daily chart.

Jakob Richardson © 2015

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