Sunday, April 12, 2015

Weekend Commodities Report: Daily Charts

I am back from my PLAB 2 course after passing my PLAB 1 and I am now able to return to writing (and studying). You will begin to notice some vertical lines on my charts from now on. These are just the cross-over points of my medium and short term KST indicators which I think really clearly indicate good bullish/bearish areas.

Many things have happened while I've been away, the most notable of which was China establishing the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Natural gas (UNG) broke a key support and is headed towards $2.40 (and possibly lower), precious metals (GLD, SLV, PALL, PPLT) are fabulous but are in need of a little break, bell-weather copper (JJC) is showing signs of life, crude oil (USO) continues to be an enigma inside a riddle wrapped in a matrix, and agricultural stocks (DBA, JO, CORN, COW, SGG, WEAT) have begun to look very poor.

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA is now listed as a short/sell and this is true for all other 'aggies' (JO, CORN, COW SGG, WEAT)
  • My medium term KST crossed over not too long ago and as I mentioned in the intro paragraph above the 'aggies' are looking weak overall. This is not a counter trend buy.
  • Momentum is building up after having been in very oversold conditions so I'd expect our current consolidation pattern to continue to the furthest resistance line. This is likely where we will rejoin the story.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is still listed as a short/sell
  • JJU is still stuck in the lower half of the declining red channel and has been for some time. Support is still in at $17.00 after testing $16.20 and appears ready for an imminent breakdown. 

Coal: KOL
  • Daily chart shows KOL as a long/buy
  • We should be prepared for a break upwards for KOL. Both the medium and short term KST lines crossed over at the same time. 
  • KOL has emerged from it's long term declining channel. The EMA's are bullishly configured albeit still below the MA(144).

Coffee: JO
  • JO is now a short/sell

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a long/buy.
  • Given everything that is happening in the world I'm fairly pessimistic of commodities, but I can't fault it's recent emergence from it's declining channel.
  • EMA's are all about to cross upwards although still below the MA(144).
  • Both medium and near-term KST indicators crossed over at the same time.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as a long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • Someone somewhere must be doing something right because JJC has also broken out of it's long-term declining channel. 
  • My medium term KST indicator is imminently about to cross upwards.

Corn: CORN
  • CORN has been switched to a strong short/sell.

Cotton: BAL
  • DBA is listed as a long/buy
  • Short and medium term KST indicators are bullishly aligned.
  • Near term there's going to be a bit of a retracement as BAL blasted outside it's Keltner channels on Wednesday and Thursday. 
  • Another short term buy should be issued later next week.

Crude Oil: USO
  • A long/buy signal is now issued.
  • I had expected the Iranian deal as the final nail in oil's coffin to take it back to $30. This does not look like it's happening, at least not in the foreseeable future.
  • Both short and medium term KST indicators have crossed over bullishly. 
  • Please watch USO skeptically.

Gold: GLD 
  • GLD along with SLV, PPLT, PALL are all buy/long on the daily charts for the medium-term.
  • I really like the medium term outlook however a bit of a consolidation pattern has emerged near term after it's meteoric rise at the end of last month. Some overbought conditions need to be relaxed before it can continue.
  • EMA's are all aligned to crossover the MA(144).

Lithium: LIT
  • Lithium is listed as a long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • Hopefully the third hit on the resistance line at $12.00 is a break.
  • EMA's have all crossed above the MA(144). 

Livestock: COW
  • COW is listed as a short/sell.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a short/sell.
  • DGAS made me 21% last week so I'm quite happy about my switch to a pessimistic stance on UNG. 
  • EIA reports showed strong buildups and low draw downs after warm weather is expected to roll into the east coast.
  • Trading channels has forecast a fall to $2.40, however making my own examination of $NATGAS (shown below) on the daily and weekly charts suggests that a fall to at least that far should be expected! Long term resistance lines are at $2.20 and $1.75 although the air-conditioning season should prevent it from falling that far.
  • UNG broke support at $13.70 and $13.00 so I expect to decline to the lowest support line in the channel.

Palladium: PALL
  • Palladium is listed as a long/buy.

Platinum: PPLT
  • Platinum is still listed as a long/buy.

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a long/buy.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Soy is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • We are approaching support at $19.30 and $19.10. 
  • Momentum on the longer term charts has not yet turned positive so a more permanent breakout may occur over the coming weeks.

Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as long/buy.
  • SLX broke out of it's long term declining channel and crossovers have been seen in both the short and long term KST's.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is being switched to a short/sell on the daily charts.

Timber: CUT
  • CUT is listed as a long term buy.

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a neutral.
  • Looking at this damn thing I'm left wondering "will it or won't it?"

Wheat: WEAT
  • Wheat is now a short/sell on the daily chart.

Jakob Richardson © 2015