Sunday, April 19, 2015

Weekend Commodities Report: Daily Charts

We've just concluded options expiration week so I would expect a lot of volatility beginning tomorrow. My head-and-shoulders pattern on gold (GLD) is still working itself out, but a critical resistance line is approaching so we will see what happens soon. Precious metals (GLD, SLV, PALL, PPLT) in general seem precariously positioned at the moment after their good run of late. Agricultural (DBA, COW, SGG, CORN, WEAT) stocks continue to seem unimpressive (exception here is coffee, JO) whereas steel (SLX) and copper (JJU) are looking quite good despite the contraction in the global economy.

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA is still listed as a short/sell.
  • Momentum is building up after having been in very oversold conditions so I'd expect our current consolidation pattern to continue to the furthest resistance line. This is likely where we will rejoin the story.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is still listed as a neutral
  • We've had movement above the middle resistance line and the EMA's have crossed bullishly over. All EMA's are below the MA(144) so this is speculative.
  • Near term resistance at $18.40.

Coal: KOL
  • Daily chart shows KOL as a long/buy
  • Consolidation pattern continues to unfold with lower support at $13.40 and upper resistance at $14.20. 

Coffee: JO
  • JO is now a speculative long/buy.
  • Coffee was changed on Wednesday after a report showed an early start to the dry season in Brazil which is bad news for next year's coffee crop.
  • Momentum has build quite steadily since mid March.
  • My short term slow stochastics (5,1) indicator had a break up on Friday.
  • Upper target of $26.50.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a long/buy.
  • Given everything that is happening in the world I'm fairly pessimistic of commodities, but I can't fault it's recent emergence from it's declining channel.
  • EMA's are all about to cross upwards although still below the MA(144).
  • Both medium and near-term KST indicators crossed over at the same time. 
  • Upper target of $18.30 is approaching. Please be mindful of this next week.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as a long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • My medium term KST indicator has crossed upwards. 
  • A large bearish pennant has taken shape. 
  • Upper target of $36.00.

Corn: CORN
  • CORN has been switched to a strong short/sell.

Cotton: BAL
  • BAL is listed as a speculative short/sell
  • Short and medium term KST indicators are bullishly aligned.
  • I said a week ago that a retracement is possible on BAL as the EMA's were getting a little too spread-out for me which could force a sell/short and that now appears to be happening. I don't like that it smashed through the EMA(34) so easily on Friday but support at the MA(144) should at least happen.

Crude Oil: USO
  • A short/sell signal is now issued.
  • It has reached the upper resistance at $20.00. A small retracement should take place next week to $18.50.
  • USO continues to close in on the MA(144) and the medium and short term KST's have both crossed over bullishly.
  • Please continue watching USO skeptically.

Gold: GLD 
  • GLD is listed as a speculative sell/short.
  • All of my predictions hinge on this crazy theory that a I am seeing a head-and-shoulders pattern developing. Next week will determine if it is true or not after resistance is made with the diagonal resistance line.
  • If there is increased volatility next week this would support my thesis of lower gold prices.

Lithium: LIT
  • Lithium is listed as a speculative short/sell on the daily charts. 
  • Support could be at $11.80 or $11.70 but we're above the MA(144) so long term this is a 'buy.'

Livestock: COW
  • COW is listed as a short/sell.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a speculative long/buy.

Palladium: PALL
  • Palladium is listed as a neutral.

Platinum: PPLT
  • Platinum is still listed as a short/sell.
  • Resistance was met at $114.00 a while back and I am now expecting the blue channel to break down.

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a short/sell.
  • Short term KST indicator just crossed over bearishly.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Soy is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • We are approaching support at $19.30 and $19.10. 
  • Momentum on the longer term charts has not yet turned positive so a more permanent breakout may occur over the coming weeks.

Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as long/buy.
  • SLX broke out of it's long term declining channel and crossovers have been seen in both the short and long term KST's.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is being switched to a short/sell on the daily charts.

Timber: CUT
  • CUT is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • Bearish pennant is forming so please take profits in-case this breaks down.

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a neutral.
  • Upper resistance at $11.00. 

Wheat: WEAT
  • Wheat is now a very strong short/sell on the daily chart.


Jakob Richardson © 2015