Monday, May 25, 2015

Commodities and Market Report: Daily Charts (BIS, DBC, BAL, USO, GLD, UN, TMF, EDZ)

Stockcharts.com was down for most of the weekend so I wasn't able to update the website. A lot of interesting things are happening such as the realization of rising interest rates, a bullish dollar, falling oil, bullish U.S. T bills, and absolutely no chance of Greece being able to pay back creditors by the 5th of June. Furthermore, my Norwich Canaries beat Middlesborough 2 to 0 and are back in the Premier League!


Below is the photo of a rather guilty looking four legged fan named Freddie who was responsible for eating his master's tickets to the final match at Wembley today (the tickets were thankfully replaced in case you're interested)!


I'm a little behind today so we'll only have an abridged report today. From now on I'm going to begin breaking my news into a 'Commodities' report and now a 'Market' report, the latter of which will include developments in treasuries, leveraged ETF's, and other market indexes.

Commodities:
Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is now listed as neutral.
  • Sorry but I need to revise my previous 'buy' signal and make it neutral. A rising dollar isn't traditionally good for commodities and a lot of my near term and medium markers are pointing downwards.
  • Once it breaks $17.90 DBC will change to 'short/sell.'

Cotton: BAL
  • BAL is listed as a short/sell.
  • BAL has broken through some important barriers recently and is now precariously positioned right on the last support line of the ascending channel. 
  • The next support is the MA(144) line at $42.50 and after that a lot lower.

 Crude Oil: USO
  • USO is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • It seems to want to stay at the EMA(13) and is having a really hard time breaking below the EMA(34) which is understandable given only one rig closure last week and large draw-down of reserves.
  • I'm still in favor of USO following or stradling the fan line so I have drawn a speculative third channel line above the current one to show what pattern might look like.
  • My target is $19.00.

Gold: GLD
  • Gold is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • I think it might go down to $1180 despite the fact that Russia and China are rumored to be announcing a return to the gold standard sometime this summer. 
  • If the U.S. dollar is rising next week we can expect weakness in gold.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • UNG is still listed as a speculative short/sell.

Market:
Biotechnology: BIB & BIS
  • BIB looks poised to breakdown from it's long-term channel.
  • BIS is a long/buy with BIB heading towards the declining channel support line of $70.00.

Real Estate: DRN & DRV
  • Rising interest rates should be bullish for real estate so DRN is a speculative long/buy although not looking particularly sprightly at the moment.
  • A lot of indicators are sitting at critical resistance levels and we might begin to see a pivot beginning this week and next of this becoming a great long-term bullish buy.
  • Stochastics (60,3) is holding steady and my stochRSI combined indicator has just transitioned to above 50%.

Emerging Markets: EDC & EDZ
  • A market retreat next week would be bearish for emerging markets as money is pulled out from 'high-risk' investments. EDZ is a long/buy.

U.S. Treasury 20 Year Bill: TMV & TMF
  • TMF is a speculative long/buy this week.


Jakob Richardson © 2015

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