Saturday, May 09, 2015

Commodities Charts and Other Things: Part I

I am back in London for more exam preparation and so I will not be presenting a complete commodities report. I will however be presenting some 'select' commodities and other index ETF's that I think are interesting.

I expect next week to represent a 'retracement' period for commodities after the good run they've had lately. For the most part I would pessimistically expect them to return to their EMA(34).

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is still listed as a speculative long/buy
  • This is the most excitment I've had watching JJU since I began covering it last year! We've had contact on the final resistance line and a solid support seems to be in place at $17.00.
  • I've chosen to cover JJU this weekend because sometime the most unlikely stocks or equities making big moves can be foreshadowing of things to come
  • JJU is poised to breakout of it's current long-term declining channel, but not after first retracing to the EMA(34)

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a neutral.
  • Upper target of $18.30 was approached.
  • My sell signal a few days back was beautifully timed and we are now finally getting the retracement I expected before it breaks out of it's current horizontal pattern.

Crude Oil: USO
  • A short/sell signal is now issued.
  • I don't like USO. I called a short/sell at a previous resistance of $20.00. When it did breakout I'll still listed it as a short/sell because COT draw downs are still less than forecast and production in Saudi Arabia continues to ramp up. 
  • Please continue watching USO skeptically.
  • The fan lines I inserted last week were quite good at showing the possible turnaround we are seeing in crude.
  • 30 minute point-and-figure charts are showing a possible return to $18.50.
  • I have personally shorted USO via DWTI. 

Gold: GLD 
  • GLD is listed as a short/sell.
  • The head-and-shoulders pattern I was expecting did end up materializing.
  • A double head-and-shoulders pattern may be emerging although I think this is more of an accidental curiosity than an actual pattern. 
  • My medium term KST indicators are imminently about to cross-over downwards with my near term KST and PMO indicators already bearishly aligned.
  • My indicators have the same appearance as those patterns that look like they're about to fall off a cliff - a period of a long gently descending plateau followed by a drop.
  • Daily point-and-figure charts still have a bottom in at $95.00.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a long/buy.
  • Bullish pennant inside the the bull flag has materialized and some fantastic progress has been seen with natural gas. 
  • A very long term resistance line on the Slow Stochastics (60,3) indicator has been breached. 
  • Upper resistance around $17.00.
  • On Friday we had a break outside the bull flag which was a little unexpected after the bearish energy report on Thursday. I didn't fully take advantage of it as why expecting a more solid fall to the EMA(34).
  • Medium term KST is about to cross over bullishly. 

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a speculative short/sell.
  • The diagonal resistance line is still approaching with two hits already on it.

Jakob Richardson © 2015