Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Commodity Charts and Other Things: GLD, SLV, DBC, ERY, TMV, UNG, USO

I am still in London for my board exam training so rather than going through the entire list of commodities I will instead highlight my favorites as well as some ETF's that have caught my attention.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • It has been closing in on the MA(144) very nicely and the EMA's are bullishly aligned, however now would be an opportune moment to take profits. 
  • The run for the past six weeks has been quite impressive but cannot go on forever.
  • I want to see three closes above $18.35 before I am convinced that the march upwards will continue.

Crude Oil: USO
  • USO is listed a strong short/sell.
  • I have been saying for two weeks now that I did not have much confidence in it's rise above $20.00.
  • Saudi Arabia is continuing to fight for market share and production is currently 2 million barrels a day, excess!
  • USO has come into contact with my second fan line twice and has been rebuffed strongly both times.

Gold: GLD
  • GLD is a long/buy
  • Gold was looking very weak and appeared to be poised for an imminent breakdown, however strong sales figures from the U.S. have driven the dollar down leading to GLD gapping up 1.75% which is very bullish.
  • Upper limit is set at $120.00 for the formation of this second "right shoulder."
  • EMA's are bullishly crossing over and the MA(144) is very close to be crossed as well.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • UNG is listed as a strong long/buy.
  • Bull flag has broken up and continues to look strong.
  • Upper limit is set around $17.00.

Silver: SLV
  • SLV is listed as a strong long/buy.
  • Confidence in any rising trend of precious metals must first have silver leading gold which is thankfully exactly what is happening.
  • SLV had it's own diagonal resistance line to cross before I felt confident enough to jump in (which I have with both feet). That resistance line was smashed today.
  • Upper limit for SLV is about $18.20.

Euro Index Fund: VGK
  • VGK is still listed as a strong short/sell.
  • Impressive growth numbers from France today have meant the VGK has risen but still within the boundaries of a bearish pennant. 
  • I've kept my short position (via EPV) at a loss and continue to do so as nothing in Europe has instilled confidence in me.
  • The slow stochastics (60,3) is heavily overbought at the moment.

Energy Bear Index Fund: ERY
  • ERY is a speculative long/buy.
  • Crude oil price has collapsed yet energy companies continue to have rising stock prices. 
  • Upper limit at $19.00 and $22.00.

Real Estate Bear Index Fund: DRV
  • DRV is a strong long/buy.
  • How on earth did I miss this!

U.S. Treasuries Bear Index Fund: TMV
  • I understand that yields have risen dramatically over the last three weeks but TMV is approaching a key resistance point line imminently.
  • Please take profits on TMV.

Jakob Richardson © 2015