Saturday, May 02, 2015

Shits n'Giggles: China Short (YANG), Natural Gas (UNG), Gold (GLD), and Treasuries (PLW)

Here's a list of some real opportunities that are presenting themselves. I'm interested in hearing what other people have to say, particularly gold (GLD).

Shits: China (FXI)
I think FXI is putting in a double top. The momentum indicators have that 'look' and 'feel' about them. I think a lower high will be put in afterwards, but not before a decline to the MA(144). People can take advantage of this with the triple leverage ETF short YANG.

Shits and Giggles: Gold (GLD)
My call last weekend on gold was correct but I lost my nerve so I apologize for flip-flopping. Part of this confusion arises from the fact that I am having trouble reconciling that with rising interest rates gold would be going up whereas it should instead be the dollar. My head-and-shoulders patterns has emerged but I now think there is a double head-and-shoulders pattern developing. It can be rationalized thusly: with a delay in interest rates gold buyers will be "risk ON," piling into the equity and raising prices to around $117.50. Notice that this second right shoulder would occur just before June and another FOMC meeting when presumably more hints are going to be dropped about rates.

I have also noticed that the close on Friday GLD came to rest on a thick red line whose origins are the peak at 2012 and a subsequent series of lower highs! If I had to guess GLD is going to rise to around $120 before falling to $95 (based on my calculations). Gold junior miners are looking very bullish at the moment so I really can't imagine gold falling next week.

Shits: U.S. Treasuries (PLW)
I'm sorry but I have be calling a top in the bond market for a long time (two years almost). Quantitative easing has created too many bubbles and finally with interest rates  finally set to increase this should be bearish for treasuries. Since the end of 2013 they have been in a steadily inclining channel, however recently a declining triangle has emerged. Furthermore, looking at PLW Friday's close broke the lowermost support line. You can take advantage of falling treasuries with TMV. Curious also is that looking at the MFI indicator (aka. money flow) we can see three closely arranged tops. I don't think treasuries have anywhere else higher to go.

Giggles: Natural Gas (UNG)
UNG is something who's time has finally come. We've had a breakout on the weekly charts and it is currently confined to a bull flag on the daily charts.

Jakob Richardson © 2015