Sunday, September 06, 2015


The markets are right now holding the line at 1900 (for the S&P) so my prediction for a rise from here for the remainder of the month seems slim. We are seeing a lot of consolidation across the various indexes, but the one commonality I am noticing is that we previously had a low (from about seven days ago) which shows up prominently on the RSI(14). We are now waiting for a higher low to appear which will give us our "buy" signal. That higher low should conclude the current five wave down structure. 

  • SPX is looking like a neutral.
  • Best to be in cash at this point but it looks like it's going down. We don't have a third hit yet on the downward line for the RSI(14). Its consolidating very quickly so an imminent move is expected that will dictate direction for the short term.

 U.S. Dollar: $USD
  • U.S. dollar is listed as a long/buy.
  • An inverse head-and-shoulders has appeared and with interest rates expected to increase this would be bullish for the dollar. I expect it to break resistance at 97.

Biotechnology: IBB
  • IBB is listed as a neutral.
  • A higher low has not been put in yet so there is no way I would consider buying at this stage.

China: FXI
  • FXI is listed as a short/sell.
  • China continues to slide downwards and no attempt has been made to break the trendline on the RSI(14).

Consumer Staples: XLP
  • XLP is listed as a neutral.

Emerging Markets: EEM
  • EEM is listed as a neutral.
  • No buy signals have emerged on the RSI index meaning a higher low has not yet been put in.

Energy: XLE
  • XLE is listed as a neutral.

Europe: VGK
  • VGK is now listed as a short/sell.
  • Divergence is beginning to emerge on the RSI but does not yet look strong enough to be a "long/buy." I think another low is still imminent.

Gold Miners: GDX
  • GDX is listed as a short/sell
  • The KST indicators have crossed bearishly and an RSI support was breached recently. I believe any fall from here is in reaction to a rising dollar.

Real Estate: IYR
  • IYR is listed as a neutral.
  • If people are afraid that interest rates will increase it's certainly not being reflected in real-estate. The question now is, " will support at $68.00 hold?" This really looks like the end of a five wave down structure so next week should be interesting.

Russia: RSX
  • RSX is a strong short/sell
  • Two excellent support lines on the RSI(14) show us exactly where we are with Russia. RSX still has further to fall.

Semiconductors: SMH
  • Listed as a short/sell.
  • Excellent short signals have emerged for this ETF. SMH has come up to the diagonal resistance which was mirrored in the RSI(14) perfectly. This should put in the second higher low.

Transportation: XTN
  • XTN is listed as a neutral.
  • XTN is now sitting right at a long term support from five years ago! This is only it's second hit so we may see a bounce from here.

U.S. Treasuries: TLT
  • TLT is listed as a long/buy.
  • Coincident with U.S. dollar strength would be an increase in treasuries.

Jakob Richardson © 2015