Sunday, September 13, 2015


Things in the market still seem precariously positioned at the moment. SPX is still caught in a triangle that looks as if it could collapse yet with momentum indicators looking positive, it's difficult to decide direction.

SPX is looking like a neutral. I still think it's best to be in cash at this point. We don't have a third hit yet on the downward line for the RSI(14) and it is consolidating very quickly so an imminent move is expected that will dictate direction for the short term. If we are able to break above the resistance set by the resistance line RSI(14) then we will know where things are headed.

U.S. Dollar: $USD
U.S. dollar is listed as a short/sell. It had previously appeared as if an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern was forming but this has not come to pass. Right now it looks like it's headed for around 91 cents and is well contained within the declining RSI(14) resistance line. 

Biotechnology: IBB
IBB is listed as a speculative short/sell. Right now an ascending triangle has emerged which is a bearish sign and should be resolved early in the new week.

China: FXI
FXI is listed as a very speculative long/buy. Late last week the downward trend-line on the RSI(14) finally broke up which is a bullish sign and we may be seeing the beginning of a three wave up. Furthermore the diagonal resistance line (dotted red) already has two hits and the third may witness a break up. Any move above $37.00 is very bullish.

Consumer Staples: XLP
XLP is listed as a neutral. We still haven't seen two closes above the line at $47.25 yet and we need to see that before I think this is continuing upwards.

Emerging Markets: EEM
EEM is listed as a neutral. The RSI(14) set up a very strong downtrend back in May and the chart looks like upper resistance is appearing at $34.50.

Energy: XLE
XLE is listed as a neutral. I think a higher low still needs to go in before a "buy" signal can be issued. There's a red dotted resistance line which needs to be broken around $66.00 (and already has three hits on it) which appears at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Keep an eye on this for next two weeks.

Europe: VGK
VGK is still listed as a short/sell. Divergence emerged on the RSI but does not yet look strong enough to be a "long/buy." I think another low is still imminent. 

Financial: XLF
XLF is listed as a neutral. I'm really confused by this chart because of the long tail that appears on August the 24th and I am open to assistance from the community. In the meantime next week critical resistance levels are being approached on the RSI(5) and RSI(14).

Gold Miners: GDX
GDX is listed as a long/buy. If my surmise is correct about the U.S. dollar falling next week this would be bullish for precious metals and miners. A buy signal has just appeared on the RSI(5) although a higher low still needs to appear on the RSI(14) for a long term signal to be issued.

Real Estate: IYR
IYR is listed as a speculative long/buy. Support has held really nicely at $68.00 and now looks as if a three wave up-trend is about to begin.

Semiconductors: SMH
Listed as a neutral. I misjudged SMH where recently on the third hit of the red dotted diagonal line it closed above it twice. The slow stochastics are over-bought at the moment so perhaps a higher low is being put in.

Transportation: XTN
XTN is listed as a neutral. XTN is now sitting right at a long term support from five years ago! This is only it's second hit so we may see a bounce from here. XTN is also coming up to a critical long term support on the RSI(14). Breaking above it would be quite bullish but for now upper resistance is put at $47.50.

U.S. Treasuries: TLT
TLT is listed as a long/buy. It currently appears on the chart as if a bull flag has emerged.

Jakob Richardson © 2015