Saturday, September 26, 2015

Market update: Counter-trend bounce in the S&P

Further to my earlier post it looks as if we are just entering the "reprieve" part of the trend. I think the S&P means to 'melt' higher after it's second bounce on the lower channel support line but I don't see it rising above the diagonal line (resistance at about 1970). The 50% Fibonacci for the year is at 1975 so I would watch this VERY closely.

Things appear very weak at the moment. Janet Yellen's speech on Thursday was bullishly received on Friday but eventually gave way to some bearish selling as the trading session wore on. I think Friday's overall trend is what one can expect in the new week: strong opens higher with weakness throughout the day.
This strikes me as being a fairly obvious counter-trend bounce and one I would not be interested in trading in from a risk standpoint. The full stochastic indicator (14) is still strongly down with the (5) firmly up. All the RSI's and MACD's are trending strongly down. I believe short positions should slowly be accumulated throughout the week as we approach 1975.