Sunday, October 11, 2015

Biotechnology and S&P: Earnings week and options expiration

Supposedly we just had the best week for the stock-market of 2015, and right on the heels of it we are entering a week that is going to be characterized by options expiration's and earnings reports. Taken together both of these are bullish, and yet the market is quite over-bought at the moment. The first half of the week might see a slight ascendancy in the market from current levels but I expect this euphoria to wear off in the second half. With some help from writers at Slope of Hope, I've modified my S&P chart a little. The first thing you should notice is that a green dotted line is now connecting previous lows in December and Febuary with recent highs in September and October. This line has only been violated twice in the last year so I expect it to represent serious resistance. The second point of interest on the chart is that S&P is currently in a bear flag. Taken together I think short positions are a prudent idea.
Curious to buck-this-trend is biotechnolgy. So far it has appeared to have entered a rising bearish wedge. The first high which sets the upper limit of the of the wedge has been set. It has since retraced, whereupon a slow grind along the lower wedge support line follows. We are now in the that grind upwards. The full stochastics and have all crossed over and the RSI(5) has given a short term buy signal. Biotechnology, from where I'm sitting, is speculative long/buy.