Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Energy: Short-term bullish entry and another double head-and-shoulders pattern on XLE

Seems odd that not only would the biotechnology/medical index and ETF's show a double head-and-shoulders pattern but now one appears to be developing in the energy sector.

First off, after the low three days ago a nice channel appears to have developed starting with the low in late August as the lower boundary and the highs of mid-August and mid-November as the upper boundary. Now we have our second tap on the lowermost support line and beginning of what I hope is the final second right shoulder. I earlier discussed the first head-and-shoulders pattern taking us to around $57.00 a few weeks back but now we can expect that to abort if this new pattern is bona-fide. Our stop at around $60.00 appears all too convenient.
The final shoulder should go to around $65.00 to $66.00 for our short-term projection. The really troubling thing to note though is that once the pattern has completed we can expect a fall to around $50.00 to $45.00 in the medium-term.

Since the first week of November we appear to have had a classic five wave down structure which should be followed now by a three wave up representing our move to $65.00 whereupon the down structure will resume.