Tuesday, December 15, 2015

This is probably why the "market" will react "positively" tomorrow

I've noticed in the six or twelve month leading up to tomorrow that there have been a lot of false starts and therefore plenty of opportunity to gauge how the "proper market" will react to a rates rise. I think it also helps that there is already a little bit of "interest rate fatigue" at this point because this charade has been done so many times before you can't help but be a little cynical.

My personal belief is that the "false starts" have been in preparation for mapping by the powers that be, and in particular the hedge fund Citadel, what moves could be expected in a stock market with a rising interest rate. To save face the market has to react positively whether it's genuine or not as we finally cross the rubicon. A market collapse at this stage would represent a tremendous loss of confidence in the general system and so my bet is that we will have a general rise for all markets tomorrow and for the forseeable future.

Just by coincidence the $NYMO indicator is well outside the Keltner channel and recently scored below 80 which as Northmantrader.com points out has only happened 12 times since 1999. Very sharp market rises are what followed in all of those instances.