Thursday, January 22, 2015

Commodities Report: Weekly Charts

Before I go away for ten days on business I want to post the weekly charts because several interesting things are happening. Of particular important is the appearance of lumber (CUT) which is precariously positioned for a fall and has been listed as a short for some time. Zero Hedge observed this morning that more than copper (JJC) or oil (USO), lumber tracks the economy the best. Despite the ECB news due this week and I believe a fall in the stock market is upon us. 

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA still listed as a strong short.
  • The fall has begun to pick up speed. We are entering the final phase of it's collapse as it has now broken down from the original declining channel.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is being listed as a long term short despite the apparent bottom. I noted this on the daily charts.
  • A bounce will occur whereupon the decline will continue. The descending channel for aluminum will simply widen as it goes downwards.
  • Resistance at $19.00.

Coal: KOL
  • KOL is listed as a short.
  • I don't know where the bottom-most line is but it looks to be between $13.00 and $13.50. A pause will take place but I don't expect it to hold either.

Coffee: JO
  • JO is listed as a short.
  • The revised declining channel (which has taken months to identify by the way) appears to be firmly in control. 

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a short.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as neutral.
  • The bounce off of the lower channel happened nicely by about a dollar, but I expect it to return to the $30.00 level.

Corn: CORN
  • Please take profits on CORN. It's hard to say this because I have been very strong on agriculturals but a fall back to $22.50 looks to be taking place.
  • All EMA's appear to crossing downward.
  • CORN is listed as a short.

Cotton: BAL
  • Listed as a short.
  • BAL has been falling since contact with the EMA(21) was made.

Crude Oil: USO
  • $BPENER index is below 20 meaning this thing horribly oversold.
  • A neutral signal is issued.

Gold: GLD 
  • Gold is now a speculative short. There needs to be a pause in this ascent. 
  • Euro ECB action has reduced demand for gold.

Lithium: LIT
  • Lithium is changed to neutral.

Livestock: COW
  • Livestock was listed a strong short on the weekly charts and the daily charts three weeks ago so I hope you all took advantage. 
  • It is currently outside the Keltner channels so a pause will occur whereupon it will resume it's fall to $25.50.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a neutral. Weather report issued on Bloomberg stated that higher than expected temperatures were expected for the next two weeks. 
  • Current gas stores are below the five year average. A high risk speculative buy could be made off of the bounce at $15.00.

Palladium: PALL
  • Palladium is listed as a strong short
  • I called a bounce back to the EMA's with a resumption of the fall back in November. This is not a 'happy' pattern.
  • First stop is $70.00.

Platinum: PPLT
  • Platinum is still listed as a short
  • It has met resistance at $125.00 and will likely return to $115.00. The problem is that it there is still a lower resistance limit far below it which it might contact later this year. Will $115.00 hold?

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a speculative short. It too has approached a critical resistance level established back in June and February of last year so profits should be taken.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Soy has been changed to a short all the way to about $18.25, the low established in June of 2012.

Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as neutral.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is listed as a neutral. A bottom looks like it's going in however the declining channel may just be widening. Let's watch closely.
  • I expect a fall as Indian sugar refineries are apparently inundated with product and hoping for export subsidies.

Timber: CUT
  • Timber is still a strong short first to $23.40, then all the way to $22.80 to $22.5.

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a strong short all the way $6.00 and beyond.
  • Head and shoulders pattern was confirmed.

Wheat: WEAT
  • Retracement towards $10.60 is foreseen. 
  • Wheat is a short on the daily chart.




Jakob Richardson © 2015

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily Charts

I'm only going to be able to give the listed recommendation tonight. I have a twelve hour shift at the care home tomorrow.

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA still listed as a short.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is being listed as short despite the apparent bottom. This is simply a 'channel widening exercise,' the decline will continue.

Coal: KOL
  • KOL is now as a short.

Coffee: JO
  • JO is listed as a short after breaking down from it's upward channel.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a short.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as short.

Corn: CORN
  • Please take profits on CORN
  • EMA's have all crossed and are headed downwards. In the long term I still like CORN, but now it's time to catch our breath and rejoin CORN once a higher low has formed.
  • CORN is listed as a short.

Cotton: BAL
  • Listed as a short

Crude Oil: USO
  • $BPENER index is below 20 meaning this thing horribly oversold.
  • A short signal is still issued

Gold: GLD 
  • Gold is now a speculative short. There needs to be a pause in this ascent.

Lithium: LIT
  • Lithium is changed to neutral.

Livestock: COW
  • Livestock was listed a strong short on the weekly charts and the daily charts are now reflecting this.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a neutral. Weather report issued on Bloomberg stated that higher than expected temperatures were expected for the next two weeks.


Palladium: PALL
  • Palladium is listed as a strong short.

Platinum: PPLT
  • Platinum is still listed as a speculative short. A pause is needed here as well and it has reached my proposed resistance of $125.00. I still really like precious metals in the long-run.

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a speculative short. It too has approached a critical resistance level so profits should be taken.


Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Soy has been changed to a short all the way to about $19.00.


Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as speculative buy.


Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is listed as a neutral. A bottom looks like it's going in!

Timber: CUT
  • Timber is still a strong short first to $23.40, then all the way to $22.80 to $22.5.

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a strong short all the way $6.00 and beyond.

Wheat: WEAT
  • Retracement towards $10.60 is foreseen. 
  • Wheat is a short on the daily chart.



Jakob Richardson © 2015

Friday, January 16, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily and Weekly Charts

Agriculture: DBA
  • The weekly chart we've hit the lower band for the second time. I have feeling the fall in agriculturals is about to accelerate.
  • DBA changed to a strong short.


Aluminum: JJU
  • On the weekly chart JJU has found support at $17.50 after a decline since November. There will be a pause here before resuming it's slide
  • The pause will serve to widen it's current downward channel. After the second fall I think nice bottom will be in place, but that's not expected until 2Q of this year.
  • JJU is being listed as short.


Coal: KOL
  • KOL has broken below the critical $14.20 support. It is currently positioned in the middle of the large descending channel means this has a lot of room to continue falling.
  • The fall in coal is likely to accelerate and won't stop until contact is made with the blue dotted line on the weekly chart. 
  • KOL is a short.


Coffee: JO
  • Sorry, but the recent agricultural reports coming in on global coffee stocks blindsided me. I don't have the time I used to to be able to follow this closely. 
  • Regardless of the strength of coffee stocks I know think JO will get dragged down with the rest of commodities. 
  • It's taken a long time but I have revised the channels governing JO on the weekly charts into something more accurate. Please note that the EMA(17) has just crossed below EMA(43).
  • JO is listed as a short.


Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a short.


Copper: JJC
  • The weekly chart now shows the scale of the breakdown from the expanding 'megaphone' pattern. Interestingly it has contacted the lower band of the declining channel. This could be a bottom.
  • JJC listed as neutral.


Corn: CORN
  • Please take profits on CORN
  • On the daily charts I previously warned that "EMA's have all crossed and are headed downwards. In the long term I still like CORN, but now it's time to catch our breath and rejoin CORN once a higher low has formed."
  • The weekly charts are showing a break in the channel. 
  • CORN is listed as a short.


Cotton: BAL
  • Still above critical support at $40.00.
  • Listed as a weak short.


Crude Oil: USO
  • $BPENER index is below 20 meaning this thing horribly oversold.
  • A short signal is still issued. USO continues to astound and amaze me. Feels like 2008 all-over again.


Gold: GLD
  • EMA(13) above EMA(34) on the daily chart along with the EMA(4) above the EMA(9). 
  • On the weekly chart it has hit the upper blue dotted resistance line. A pull back should ensue followed by a higher low and a proper breakout. Watch the consolidation pattern on the weekly chart closely.
  • GLD between $120.00 and $110.00 is a buy and accumulation zone.  
  • Gold is now a strong buy long term, but a near term short.


Lithium: LIT
  • Sitting at a crucial support level at $11.00.  
  • Lithium is changed to neutral.


Livestock: COW
  • Livestock was listed a strong short and the weekly charts and the daily charts are now reflecting this.


Natural Gas: UNG
  • We had a terrific day on Wednesday when UNG climbed over 10%. I was in the triple leveraged ETF UGAZ and sold at 27% so I'm pretty happy. We are still in the declining channel but our gap up mid-week is a good sign. I expect a small pull back before an eventual breakout. I would gradually accumulate natural gas positions while a higher low is formed.
  • Like many commodities at the moment, UNG is holding at the low put in during Q1 2012.
  • The XNG natural gas index was reported in an article on CNBC as having a 19% return over the last 20 years between the months of February and June. 
  • Natural gas storage levels are still below the five year average.
  • Momentum indicators are beginning to cross over positively. 
  • Natural gas is listed as a buy. I am very certain a bottom is forming as the mean StochRSI indicator is now finally crawling out above the 20 line.


Palladium: PALL
  • Daily chart looks like a bearish flag. Fall towards $71.00 is still predicted. 
  • EMA's on the weekly chart are all holding at the same level. PALL is gradually moving towards the final channel support line.
  • Palladium is listed as a strong short.


Platinum: PPLT
  • Close today outside of declining channel which is a bullish sign. 
  • The daily chart is showing a bullish convergence of the EMA(13) above the EMA(34). Possible bottom in at $114.50.   
  • EMA(4) has moved above EMA(9). 
  • I see resistance at around $125.00.
  • Platinum is still listed as a speculative buy.


Silver: SLV
  • A very big break above resistance of $16.50 on the daily charts.
  • Pullback expected in the coming week but this should continue it's march upwards now that clearer picture has emerged on the channel.
  • Silver is a buy.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Support broke today in a very disconcerting development.
  • Soy has been changed to a short all the way to about $19.00.


Steel: SLX 
  • Weekly chart is not very helpful here however the daily chart is saying that the declining red channel is firmly in-charge with no chance of the perceived bounce.
  • Steel is listed as short.


Sugar: SGG
  • Odd! The EMA(4) has moved above the EMA(9) and the critical EMA(13) and (34) are converging.
  • Sugar is listed as a neutral.


Timber: CUT
  • Timber is still a strong short first to $23.40, then all the way to $22.80 to $22.5.


Uranium: URA
  • Head and shoulders pattern has come to fruition.  
  • Uranium is a strong short all the way $6.00 and beyond.


Wheat: WEAT
  • Retracement towards $10.60 is foreseen. 
  • Wheat is a short on the daily chart.



Jakob Richardson © 2015