Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily Charts

I still don't have my results from my first medical board exam, the PLAB 1, but this has not stopped me from returning to London for a course in preparation for the second step of my licensing, the PLAB 2, and I will therefore not be making many posts for the next twelve days.

Tonight is an abridged view of commodities that are making moves or changing directions that I think investors should be aware of. My long/buy signal on precious metals (GLD, SLV, PPLT, PALL) has held up nicely with solid returns so far. I have since reversed my position on platinum (PPLT) and palladium (PALL), however. My long/buy signal on natural gas (UNG) has not yet materialized. I unfortunately closed out my position at a loss and am regretting it now as it has since retraced. It's best to remain neutral while this consolidation pattern resolves itself.

Coal: KOL
  • Daily chart shows KOL as a neutral
  • Still have a bearish configuration on the EMA's.
  • My long term KST and PMO indicators do not look like crossing upwards, but rather are plateauing for another journey downwards.
  • A break above $13.60 has not happened and it seems to be struggling to do so.

Coffee: JO
  • JO has been changed to a neutral
  • Support still looks good at $22.50 but the EMA's are still very bearishly aligned.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a neutral.
  • Support at $16.75 has continued to hold and a breakout from the long-term descending channel appears imminent. 
  • I'm still waiting to see what happens. After today it looks as if commodities will kiss the last resistance line and then plummet downwards, a very real and very worrying scenario. The channel of DBC is shallow enough that it can do that and any move downwards for commodities is likely going to be led by crude oil, a major component of DBC. Crude oil, as the USO chart will show you, is not looking hot at the moment and my sell/short signal for it still stands.

Corn: CORN
  • CORN has been switched to a neutral.
  • We're so close to the uppermost resistance line with a great day on Friday and again today with the EMA's pinching closer (although still bearishly aligned).
  • Please notice that CORN is poised to move above the last resistance line.

Gold: GLD 
  • Gold is a long/buy on the daily charts.
  • Could the massive new upward channel I've drawn in be the inflection point gold bulls have been waiting for? It's easy to see how it could all be the same "motif."
  • The call eight sessions ago was a good one and precious metal markets have been reaping the benefit after the Fed's statement.
  • My long term indicators (such as the KST and PMO) have just crossed over. 

Palladium: PALL
  • Palldium is a speculative short/sell and has begun to diverge rather precariously from the other precious metals, silver and gold most notably. 
  • Long-term indicators do not appear happy.

Platinum: PPLT
  • My position on PPLT has been changed to a speculative short/sell based on the widening pattern I have discovered and the declining series of lower-highs.
  • I want to see a break above the red resistance line first.

Jakob Richardson © 2015

Sunday, March 22, 2015

Commodity Report: Daily Charts

A lot of charts are showing an imminent breakout from their long-term declining channels (KOL, UNG, DBC, JJC, USO, COW) and it has developed into something of a theme recently. I'm not yet convinced that these are genuine breakouts instead of bottoming patterns or consolidation areas that will simply widen the existing declining channel. Precious metals (GLD, SLV, PPLT, PALL) are also showing near-term strength and have all been upgraded to speculative long/buy's. I am not convinced yet that this is the beginning of a long-term trend, though.

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA still listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • Agriculture didn't break down as I feared it would after coming into contact with the last long-term support line. Since then it has made four strong moves.
  • My PMO indicator crossed over which is bullish sign and my momentum indicators are suggesting that a double-bottom has just been completed.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is still listed as a short/sell
  • JJU is still stuck in the lower half of the declining red channel and has been for some time. Support has been put in at $17.00 and appears ready for an imminent breakdown. 

Coal: KOL
  • Daily chart shows KOL as a neutral
  • Still have a bearish configuration on the EMA's, however, my long term MACD indicator is about to turn up just my PMO is about to crossover too.
  • The long term descending channel looks like it might finally break upwards.

Coffee: JO
  • JO remains a speculative long/buy
  • Support looks good at $22.50 but I'm afraid I am not able to comment on JO's strange behavior of breaking down from it's previous channel and now rejoining it.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a neutral.
  • Support at $16.75 has continued to hold and a breakout from the long-term descending channel appears imminent. 
  • No crossovers on my long-term indicators have been seen so let's just wait a few days and see what happens.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as a speculative buy on the daily charts. 
  • Can someone else explain this to me? One of the prime indicators for global economic health is looking, well, kind of healthy. 
  • EMA's have made a bullish crossover, albeit far below the MA(144) still. 
  • Copper is going to have to be watched closely.

Corn: CORN
  • CORN has been switched to a neutral.
  • We're so close to the uppermost resistance line with a great day on Friday and the EMA's pinching closer (although still bearishly aligned).

Cotton: BAL
  • Listed as a speculative buy/long
  • I'm sensing a strong turnaround for cotton here in the chart and have upgraded it's status. Momentum looks quite strong where another move above the last descending channel resistance line might be seen. 
  • This is still a speculative investment. Some great in-roads have been made however I want to see this well and truly above the MA(144) and my long-term indicators a little more bullishly configured.

Crude Oil: USO
  • A sell/short signal is now issued.


Gold: GLD 
  • Gold is still a speculative buy on the daily charts.
  • The call six sessions ago was a good one and precious metal markets have been reaping the benefit after the Fed's statement.
  • My long term indicators are poised to crossover however I feel like this most recent ascension is still temporary.

Lithium: LIT
  • Lithium is still listed as a speculative long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • My short-term indicators have crossed over and my long-term indicators are not far behind.
  • The long tail made three days ago I think is the higher low signalling an ascending triangle.

Livestock: COW
  • COW is still listed as a long/buy.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • This is the riskiest position I am in currently! It is still holding above my diagonal resistance line and the engulfing bull pattern is still present. 
  • We still have a series of higher lows which I also like. So much momentum has developed over the last four months I can't imagine this not breaking out.

Palladium: PALL
  • Palladium is listed as a speculative long/buy.

Platinum: PPLT
  • Platinum is still listed as a speculative long/buy.

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a speculative buy.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Soy is still a neutral.
  • We are approaching support at $19.30 and $19.10. 
  • Momentum on the longer term charts has not yet turned positive so a more permanent breakout should occur over the coming weeks.

Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as speculative long/buy.
  • A breakout of the long-term declining channel looks imminent.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is being switched to a speculative long/buy on the daily charts.

Timber: CUT 
  • CUT is listed as a long term buy.

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a strong short/sell.

Wheat: WEAT
  • Wheat is speculative long/buy on the daily chart. 
  • The breakdown of the $10.65 level made me feel quite pessimistic about wheat but looking at the longer term momentum charts so some strong divergence is developing. 
  • Very strong resistance at $11.60.


Jakob Richardson © 2015

Friday, March 20, 2015

Market Review: Shits n'Giggles (UNG, ERX, DRN)

Below I have identified a number of opportunities in the market that I feel my readers could benefit from. These recommendations are being made over the short to medium-term time frame and look to take advantage of the recent delay in interest rate increases signaled by the Federal Reserve Bank on Wednesday. Our recent correction over the last few weeks I feel signals an intermediate bottom with new highs being made over the coming months. From there however, ominous signs of a larger and broader market correction seem to be emerging (there was a fabulous blog posted about this by I can't for the life of me find it again). Warnings have also been made on the talk-show circuit by numerous hedge fund managers, a former FOMC chief, and a slew of billionaires.

Giggles: Natural Gas (UNG, UGAZ)
I have been waiting for this for some time! I have included in the picture below my momentum indicators that I believe show a very steady and consistent increase over the last three to four months. More recently I identified a diagonal resistance line eminating from a series of lower-lows. This line was breached on Wednesday and we have since had two (barely) closes above it. Point and figure charts have this going to around $17.00. Additionally my indicators are all ideally positioned at the moment:
  • StochRSI (14) is above 50%
  • KST is crossed up and about to cross above the '0' line
  • Momentum indicators have been setting up divergence for a while

Giggles: Real Estate (DRN)
DRN has something I have also been following closely but stupidly closed out my positions in. I became interested in it when I noticed a convincing break out of the declining red channel was made. Already being above the MA(144) with imminent crossovers of the EMA indicators this looked like a strong buy to me. The point and figure charts have this going to $116.00.


Giggles: Energy (ERX)
This one seems slightly paradoxical given the fall of crude oil and natural gas over the last few months. This recommendation is speculative as we are still below the MA(144) but closing in fast. A higher low has also been made  along with favorable divergence on the long term MACD indicators. There is also a coincident breakout of the long term down trend. The EMA's are almost favorably configured. A little patience is required but I think ERX will emerge shortly looking quite good.


Jakob Richardson © 2015

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily Charts

Update of the significant commodities making moves after yesterday's good-cop/bad-cop routine from the FOMC.

Coffee: JO
  • JO remains a long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • We are approaching upper resistance but coffee is looking decent in the medium-term.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a neutral.
  • A lot people have been hammering commodities after today's open but thinking about the daily charts and looking closely at the MACD(13,34,0) indicator I think a double bottom has been put in. This will be monitored closely but a breakout seems imminent.

Cotton: BAL
  • Listed as a speculative buy/long
  • The turnaround that I was sensing in cotton has materialized. Not only is a strong advance being seen after yesterday's rise but a breakout of the long-term downtrend has happened (again).

Crude Oil: USO
  • A sell/short signal is still issued.
  • Yesterday was a real roller-coaster! I maintain my short positions on crude, especially after some disheartening comments by the Kuwaiti oil minister.

Gold: GLD 
  • Gold is still a speculative buy on the daily charts.
  • I maintain my long-term view that gold could still decline to $1000.

Livestock: COW
  • COW is listed as a long/buy on the daily charts and still quite precariously positioned near the last resistance level.
  • Momentum has begun to develop beneath COW and I have issued a short term 'buy' on it.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a long/buy. 
  • Like crude oil UNG also went on a roller-coaster yesterday. A convincing breakout was witnessed yesterday followed today by a near complete retracement today (a getting worse as the day goes on). The close might happen below our breakout line, however the reason I am recommending UNG as a long/buy is because of the massive amount of divergence that has developed on the MACD stretching over four months. 
  • We are still in the major buying season for natural gas which lasts until June, approximately.  

Timber: CUT 
  • CUT is listed as a long term buy
  • I called for some retracement of CUT after it's meteoric rise but I am seeing signs again that it is ready to move upwards again. Short term CUT is a speculative buy

Jakob Richardson © 2015

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily Charts

Today will be an examination of commodities that are making moves and/or changing directions that I think people should be cognizant of.

Coffee: JO
  • JO is a buy/long on the daily charts. 
  • I speculated that support looked good at $22.50 in my last post and so far it's holding up. My long term MACD indicator has crossed up so I don't think I can pass this up.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is still listed as a short/sell.
  • I should comment on this given the importance of DBC as a general indicator of economic health. 
  • In my last post I said that support at around $16.60 wouldn't hold and today we witnessed a breakdown. The frightening thing is that there is a lot of room for it to continue falling. Because of the low put in back in January the declining channel has widened. 

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as a short/sell on the daily charts. 
  • I listed this as a "speculative buy" if it could break above $31.75 and so far it hasn't. The "short/sell" arrow I put up back in March was the correct call. 
  • EMA's have crossed downwards.

Crude Oil: USO
  • A sell/short signal is now issued.
  • I hope you have all profited from my advice of shorting oil. Zerohedge ("The USO carnage has just begun") has reported a "sharp" increase in the number of outstanding USO shares in addition to a spike in the oil price contango. 
  • Support broke $16.50 and the curves on my KST indicator look like they are going to pick up pace.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a long/buy. 
  • I was wrong about natural gas following crude oil. 
  • My diagonal resistance line was broken this morning and UNG has powered up 3.82% at the time of writing. 

Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • Support at $31.00 is holding so upward resistance is put at around $34.50

Timber: CUT 
  • CUT is still listed as a long term buy
  • Timber is retracing some heavily over-bought conditions and is now sitting just above $24.60. Things will be interesting when they reach the lower blue support line. 
  • Over the next week CUT will be watched very closely.


Jakob Richardson © 2015

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily Charts

I apologize for my absence but the GMC board exam felt much better this time. I will return to my commodities charts with a review of the past week with a look at the upcoming week. Precious metals (GLD, SLV, PALL, PPLT) look like a speculative buy after their six week fall. I want to see GLD firm up a little more solidly around $110.00 before I start thinking it's a long term buy.  

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA still listed as a short/sell.
  • Agriculture looks like it's breaking down from the descending red channel. Not good!

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is still listed as a short/sell
  • JJU is still stuck in the lower half of the declining red channel and has been for some time. Support has been put in at $17.00 and appears ready for an imminent breakdown. 

Coal: KOL
  • Daily chart shows KOL as a short/sell
  • Bearish crossover on the EMA's and a new upper resistance level has been added to the larger red declining red channel.

Coffee: JO
  • JO remains a short/sell on the daily charts. 
  • I don't know where the lower channel line will be so it's a little arbitrarily placed at this point. Support looks good at $22.50.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a short/sell.
  • We are coming up on my support of $16.60 but the momentum indicators are suggesting that this won't hold. Please look to the lowermost channel as a guide of where this may go.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as a speculative buy on the daily charts. 
  • Can someone else explain this to me? One of the prime indicators for global economic health is looking, well, kind of healthy. 
  • EMA's have made a bullish crossover, albeit far below the MA(144) still. 
  • Copper is going to have to be watched closely.

Corn: CORN
  • CORN has been switched to a short/sell.
  • EMA's are crossing over the MA(144) which is very bearish.

Cotton: BAL
  • Listed as a speculative buy/long
  • I'm sensing a strong turnaround for cotton here in the chart and have upgraded it's status. Momentum looks quite strong where another move above the last descending channel resistance line might be seen.

Crude Oil: USO
  • A sell/short signal is now issued.
  • Greenspan was on CNBC saying that the fall in oil is not over and I'd have to agree. I published an article on this about ten days ago but I still maintain my belief that crude oil is destined for $30 to $35.00. 
  • Some of my longer term indicators are poised to cross downwards again.

Gold: GLD 
  • Gold is now a speculative buy on the daily charts.
  • GLD has not yet comfortably settled at $110.00 so a small further decline is expected.

Lithium: LIT
  • Lithium is still listed as a speculative short on the daily charts.

Livestock: COW
  • COW is listed as a short on the daily charts and still quite precariously positioned near the last resistance level.
  • I think the time for a renewed breakdown is upon us as no meaningful advance has occurred.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a short/sell.
  • There is no reason for natural gas to fall except that I feel it is following crude oil. 
  • I've drawn in some new resistance levels to watch that show a series of lower highs (bearish).

Palladium: PALL
  • Palladium is listed as a speculative buy.

Platinum: PPLT
  • Platinum is still listed as a speculative buy at the moment.

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a speculative buy.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Soy is still a short/sell.
  • We are approaching support at $19.30 and $19.10. 
  • Momentum on longer term charts is starting to look positive so a more permanent breakout over the next three months is possible. 

Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as speculative short.
  • The EMA's are suggesting that $31.00 will not hold.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is being switched to a short/sell on the daily charts.
  • A little lateral consolidation is likely in the near term for sugar.

Timber: CUT 
  • CUT is listed as a long term buy
  • Timber is retracing some heavily over-bought conditions and is now sitting just above $24.60. Things will be interesting when they reach the lower blue support line. In a weeks time CUT will need to be watched very closely.

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a strong short/sell.

Wheat: WEAT
  • Wheat is neutral on the daily chart. 
  • The breakdown of the $10.65 level made me feel quite pessimistic about wheat but looking at the longer term momentum charts so some strong divergence is developing. Best to stay on the sidelines and watch.


Jakob Richardson © 2015