Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily Charts

The FOMC report that came out this afternoon was 'dovish' but it did not rule out the possibility of a rates rise in June. In the meantime I got hammered shorting gold and ironically it looks like a 'buy' at the moment. The market still looks a little too hot for my liking with biotechnology stocks falling dramatically a few days back, but all of this may be changing as we enter the spring/summer trading season. Of particular note is that the American dollar is currently getting pummeled and no one seems to have noticed or commented on this. I think this development is quite bullish for commodities. In closing, I think the reason this particular period is so hard to trade is because the market is pivoting downwards.

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA is still listed as a neutral.
  • The fall in the American dollar has made me reconsider the fall in commodities.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is still listed as a speculative long/buy

Coal: KOL
  • Daily chart shows KOL as a speculative long/buy
  • Consolidation pattern continues to unfold with lower support at $13.40 and upper resistance at $14.20. 

Coffee: JO
  • JO is now a neutral.
  • This is a strategic pause but I think coffee will continue onwards and upwards.
  • EMA's are consolidating nicely and poised to cross-over.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a long/buy.
  • Upper target of $18.30 is approaching. Please be mindful of this.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as a long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • My medium term KST indicator has crossed upwards. 
  • A large bearish pennant has taken shape however in the meantime this means JJC will be ascending. 
  • Upper target of $36.00.

Corn: CORN
  • CORN has been switched to a neutral.

Cotton: BAL
  • BAL is listed as a speculative short/sell
  • Upper limit of current pennant is at around $46.00

Crude Oil: USO
  • A short/sell signal is now issued.
  • I don't like USO. I called a short/sell at it's current resistance of $20.00 and it looks poised to breakout. When it does breakout, I'll still list it as a short sell because COT draw downs are still less than forecast and production in Saudi Arabia continues to ramp up. 
  • I have inserted some blue fan lines so I now expect a much needed retracement to occur around $21.00.
  • Please continue watching USO skeptically.

Gold: GLD 
  • GLD is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • The head-and-shoulders pattern did not materialize. Couple this with a fall in the U.S. dollar and my near term indicators are pointing upwards.
  • I apologize for the incorrect call a week ago but this has been an extremely frustrating period.

Lithium: LIT
  • Lithium is listed as a long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • Smashed through the resistance line and didn't even pause like I thought it might.

Livestock: COW
  • COW is now listed as a long/buy.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • Still a speculative long/buy but I have tried to identify a bullish pennant that developed inside a declining channel.

Palladium: PALL
  • Palladium is listed as a long/buy.
  • Break out from diagonal resistance. I should have released a buy signal three days ago.

Platinum: PPLT
  • Platinum is still listed as a long/buy.
  • PPLT has also emerged from it's long term declining channel.

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a neutral.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Soy is listed as a speculative short/sell.

Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as long/buy.
  • SLX broke out of it's long term declining channel and crossovers have been seen in both the short and long term KST's.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is being switched to a long/buy on the daily charts in the medium term.

Timber: CUT
  • CUT is listed as a strong short/sell.
  • Bearish pennant has formed so please take profits. CUT broke the diagonal support line today.

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a neutral.
  • A pause is needed after it's incredible rise. 

Wheat: WEAT
  • Wheat is now a short/sell on the daily chart.

Jakob Richardson © 2015

Monday, April 27, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily Charts

A lot of the patterns and consolidation signals I've identified are still in place because the FOMC's statement is due Wednesday. There isn't much to add beyond what I have already identified. Please expect a lot of volatility between now and then.

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA is still listed as a short/sell.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is still listed as a neutral

Coal: KOL
  • Daily chart shows KOL as a long/buy
  • Consolidation pattern continues to unfold with lower support at $13.40 and upper resistance at $14.20. 

Coffee: JO
  • JO is now a neutral.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a long/buy.
  • Upper target of $18.30 is approaching. Please be mindful of this.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as a long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • My medium term KST indicator has crossed upwards. 
  • A large bearish pennant has taken shape. 
  • Upper target of $36.00.

Corn: CORN
  • CORN remains a strong short/sell.

Cotton: BAL
  • BAL is listed as a speculative short/sell
  • I said a week ago that a retracement is possible on BAL as the EMA's were getting a little too spread-out for me which could force a sell/short and that now appears to be happening. I don't like that it smashed through the EMA(34) so easily on Friday but support at the MA(144) should at least happen.

Crude Oil: USO
  • A short/sell signal is now issued.
  • It has reached the upper resistance at $20.00. A small retracement should take place next week to $18.50.
  • USO continues to close in on the MA(144) and the medium and short term KST's have both crossed over bullishly.
  • Please continue watching USO skeptically.

Gold: GLD 
  • GLD is listed as a speculative sell/short.
  • All of my predictions hinge on this crazy theory that a I am seeing a head-and-shoulders pattern developing.
  • Contact was made with the diagonal resistance line with a 2.02% rise today but not enough to change my long term indicators. There's still room left for this to play out and convincing break with two closes above the line need to happen for me to reverse my position.
  • The 'daily' and '60 minute' point and figure charts still have bearish predictions.

Lithium: LIT
  • Lithium is listed as a long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • Smashed through the resistance line and didn't even pause like I thought it might.

Livestock: COW
  • COW is listed as a neutral.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • It fell below my $12.50 support line which means UNG should finally find a bottom at around $11.00 to $11.50 (about $2.40 per BTU).
  • Natural gas is about 7 cents away from my theorized bottom about 10 days ago but my long term indicators have crossed over so I think this is finally it.

Palladium: PALL
  • Palladium is listed as a neutral.

Platinum: PPLT
  • Platinum is still listed as a short/sell.

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a short/sell.
  • Short term KST indicator just crossed over bearishly.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Soy is listed as a speculative short/sell.

Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as long/buy.
  • SLX broke out of it's long term declining channel and crossovers have been seen in both the short and long term KST's.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is being switched to a long/buy on the daily charts in the medium term.

Timber: CUT
  • CUT is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • Bearish pennant is forming so please take profits in-case this breaks down.

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a neutral.
  • A pause is needed after it's incredible rise. 

Wheat: WEAT
  • Wheat is now a very strong short/sell on the daily chart.



Jakob Richardson © 2015

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Shits n'Giggles: GLD (DUST, DGLD, JDST), EPV, ERY and ERX

What follows are a couple of interesting opportunities that have presented themselves recently. I want to know what other people think of them but I wouldn't be posting them if I didn't think you could make money from them.

Giggles: Gold (GLD) Short (DGLD, JDST, DUST)
About a week ago I speculated about a possible head-and-shoulders pattern in GLD developing. The call was made at the last red arrow, about the 13th of this month. It seemed risky because the internet is generally alight with the talk of gold finally being in a bottom and naturally that made me start looking at alternatives. This week saw a 2% decline for the precious metal with a rest forecast to take place around $112.00. Other precious metals like silver and platinum have followed along with all their miners (DUST, JDST).

The really frightening thing is if this head-and-shoulders is actually true and the pattern continues to play out. Generally (and I mean this in the broadest sense of the word) a decline follows the pattern equal to 133% of the distance from the base to the top of the 'head.' On GLD this equal to $15.00 so a decline in the coming weeks may see it fall to around $92.00. Please take advantage with DGLD, JDST and DGLD ETF's.


Shits: Natural Gas (UNG)
UNG is hanging on by a thread above $12.50 after giving up on a previous support line I had marked. My KST indicator has still bullishly crossed over and we continue to inch our way towards the final resistance line of the large downward channel. It may be the beginning of May before we see this resolve itself but if in that time it remains above $12.50 that will be quite bullish. My 'long/buy' call was a little premature.


Giggles: Euro Index Fund (VGK, EURL) Short (EPV)
I was looking at EURL recently which is a long Euro Index fund that has been a successful favorite of Barrier Cove lately and I noticed a bearish pennant developing. VGK is a more liquid unleveraged Euro Index fund and it showed the same thing. Traders can take advantage with EPV.


Shits n'Giggles: Energy Fund Bull (ERX) and Bear (ERY)
Matched funds are always fun because they make a very convenient arbitration trade. Right now I'm looking at a "long/buy" on ERY and "short/sell" on ERX. I noticed recently that ERY was coming up the lowermost support line for it's current downward channel but that horizontal support going back to late November and earlier was also in play. This is a highly speculative play but ERX has just had it's third hit on it's current ascending channel and indicators are pointing to an stock that needs a bit of a break. The sell for ERY is set at around $20.00.



Jakob Richardson © 2015

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily Charts

I've been worried about the trajectory of the general market since about January 2013. More and more websites and casual market observers such as myself in recent weeks have begun to make a lot more noise regarding the bear flag that's been developing in the SPX and associated index funds where the worry has begun to find it's way into the 'legitimate' news (I can recall recent memories of Marketwatch and Bloomberg running similar articles a week or two ago). I have restrained myself from making big pronouncements on market direction for a long time but it's an urge I can no longer hold back. I implore all who read this website to please exercise extreme caution in the immediate to medium-term time frame and keep the majority of your positions in cash.


Coffee: JO
  • JO is still a speculative long/buy.
  • We had a break outside it's current downward channel today.
  • Upper target of $26.50 is still on deck.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as a neutral on the daily charts. 
  • A large bearish pennant had begun to taken shape and has already broken down.  This is not a positive development and copper has just had it's worst day in a month.
  • EMA's are still below the MA(144) and they themselves have begun to cross over bearishly.
  • Lower resistance of around $31.75

Crude Oil: USO
  • A short/sell signal is now issued.
  • It has reached the upper resistance at $20.00. A small retracement should take place next week to $18.50.
  • USO continues to close in on the MA(144) and the medium and short term KST's have both crossed over bullishly.
  • Please continue watching USO skeptically.
Gold: GLD 
  • GLD is listed as a speculative sell/short.
  • My predictions of a head-and-shoulders pattern developing took a very big step forward today. We had a decline of 1.33% with the diagonal resistance not being breached.
  • My pessimism for GLD also applies to the other precious metal ETF's PALL, PPLT, and SLV.
  • If there is increased volatility next week this would support my thesis of lower gold prices.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • I shouldn't be hyper-examining natural gas but I have to because I need to make money to pay off student debt! 
  • I have been going on and on about how UNG had to either make a significant drop or break-out of it's downward channel because lateral room is declining. The last few trading days have been very encouraging and with the EIA's weekly energy report being released tomorrow we'll find out better where UNG is headed. 
  • The long-term momentum trajectory has been very positive.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is being switched to a short/sell on the daily charts.
  • One of my favourite commentators at tradingchannels.co.uk has become bullish on sugar in the medium to long-term so I'd just like to remind everyone that at least for the near-term I am still bearish.  

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a long/buy in the medium term.
  • What-the-fuck! 6.12%!!! My call of a short/sell on URA at the $11.00 resistance level got smashed. This is a very bullish development for uranium but quite expected as Cameco (CCO.TO) has been on a tear since late March.

Jakob Richardson © 2015