Monday, May 25, 2015

Commodities and Market Report: Daily Charts (BIS, DBC, BAL, USO, GLD, UN, TMF, EDZ)

Stockcharts.com was down for most of the weekend so I wasn't able to update the website. A lot of interesting things are happening such as the realization of rising interest rates, a bullish dollar, falling oil, bullish U.S. T bills, and absolutely no chance of Greece being able to pay back creditors by the 5th of June. Furthermore, my Norwich Canaries beat Middlesborough 2 to 0 and are back in the Premier League!


Below is the photo of a rather guilty looking four legged fan named Freddie who was responsible for eating his master's tickets to the final match at Wembley today (the tickets were thankfully replaced in case you're interested)!


I'm a little behind today so we'll only have an abridged report today. From now on I'm going to begin breaking my news into a 'Commodities' report and now a 'Market' report, the latter of which will include developments in treasuries, leveraged ETF's, and other market indexes.

Commodities:
Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is now listed as neutral.
  • Sorry but I need to revise my previous 'buy' signal and make it neutral. A rising dollar isn't traditionally good for commodities and a lot of my near term and medium markers are pointing downwards.
  • Once it breaks $17.90 DBC will change to 'short/sell.'

Cotton: BAL
  • BAL is listed as a short/sell.
  • BAL has broken through some important barriers recently and is now precariously positioned right on the last support line of the ascending channel. 
  • The next support is the MA(144) line at $42.50 and after that a lot lower.

 Crude Oil: USO
  • USO is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • It seems to want to stay at the EMA(13) and is having a really hard time breaking below the EMA(34) which is understandable given only one rig closure last week and large draw-down of reserves.
  • I'm still in favor of USO following or stradling the fan line so I have drawn a speculative third channel line above the current one to show what pattern might look like.
  • My target is $19.00.

Gold: GLD
  • Gold is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • I think it might go down to $1180 despite the fact that Russia and China are rumored to be announcing a return to the gold standard sometime this summer. 
  • If the U.S. dollar is rising next week we can expect weakness in gold.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • UNG is still listed as a speculative short/sell.

Market:
Biotechnology: BIB & BIS
  • BIB looks poised to breakdown from it's long-term channel.
  • BIS is a long/buy with BIB heading towards the declining channel support line of $70.00.

Real Estate: DRN & DRV
  • Rising interest rates should be bullish for real estate so DRN is a speculative long/buy although not looking particularly sprightly at the moment.
  • A lot of indicators are sitting at critical resistance levels and we might begin to see a pivot beginning this week and next of this becoming a great long-term bullish buy.
  • Stochastics (60,3) is holding steady and my stochRSI combined indicator has just transitioned to above 50%.

Emerging Markets: EDC & EDZ
  • A market retreat next week would be bearish for emerging markets as money is pulled out from 'high-risk' investments. EDZ is a long/buy.

U.S. Treasury 20 Year Bill: TMV & TMF
  • TMF is a speculative long/buy this week.


Jakob Richardson © 2015

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily Charts (DBA, DBC, JO, UNG, USO, GLD, BAL)

The markets have felt a little deflated and flat this week which is hardly surprising given the Fed's 'minutes' published on Wednesday and long weekend coming up for U.S. markets. Meantime I have done very well shorting crude oil and natural gas.  In the coming two weeks I still expect to be bearish on energy.

Agriculture: DBA
  • Listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • My position hasn't changed and DBA continues to hover just above $22.00. The furthest channel resistance line is fast approaching and momentum continues to develop positively.

Coffee: JO
  • Coffee is listed as a short/sell.
  • My call several weeks ago, the red arrow at the beginning of May, was early but today we finally had a close below $22.50.  

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • Whatever is bad for the American dollar is good for commodities, apparently.
  • The counter trend decline that I called at the beginning of May I think has run it's course. It seems poised to return to $18.30 but I need to see a convincing break above to believe this ascent is real. I've drawn in what I think this channel looks like.

Cotton: BAL
  • Cotton is listed as a short/sell.
  • BAL is not looking great at the moment. We already have two hits on the lower channel support line.
  • My longer-term KST and PMO indicators have been bearishly crossed over for some time so my feeling is this is going to break down with a $42.30 target.

Crude Oil: USO
  • Crude Oil is still a short/sell.
  • I did very well by shorting crude oil and exiting after it's 4% collapse two days ago (using DWTI). I have re-bought some shorts as a retracement was expected.
  • Today's 3.33% ascent has me a little worried but I'm not seeing any bullish crossovers yet and Saudi Aramco announced that crude oil production last month was the greatest in the last ten years.

Gold: GLD
  • GLD is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • Target is the support line at about $114.80. I really thought that an ascent to $120.00 was possible but we are approaching a very worrisome pivot point for the long term price of gold if it does in fact decline to that level.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is a speculative short/sell.
  • This is strictly a counter-trend play because I think natural gas will resume it's climb afterwards. UNG should be a buy when natural gas returns to about $2.75 BTU.
  • Meantime over the next week a gradual descent to the furthest channel line between $14.20 to $14.30 is expected.

Jakob Richardson © 2015

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily Charts (DBA, KOL, JO, DBC, JJC, USO, GLD, LIT, UNG, SLV)

Still in London studying (sort of) so here is a weekend update of commodities. I am sensing headwinds building up in the market which is still caught in an ascending bearish triangle with bull's failing to break above 2125 on the S&P and small cap stocks getting brutalized. Bearish ETF's, particularly in energy, should be evaluated carefully in the coming week to take advantage. Commodities are looking rather good overall at the moment and I feel this reflects general weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • The momentum that I have been commenting on for a few months now continues to build. 
  • A good support area at $22.00 seems to be in place. 
  • Medium term KST is poised to crossover in the coming weeks.

Coal: KOL
  •  KOL is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • The consolidation triangle I mentioned long ago is playing out, but a bullish crossover on the EMA's has occurred.
  • Momentum continues to move towards the 'zero' line.
  • PMO imminently about to crossover.

Coffee: JO
  • JO is listed as neutral.
  • JO is still caught in a large long-term downtrend but continues to move laterally towards the last resistance line.
  • Environmental reports continue to hint at an early dry season with adverse effects on next year's coffee crop.
  • Momentum is strongly moving towards the positive region.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a neutral.
  • I called a speculative short/sell when it came into contact with resistance around $18.30 about a week back and it has since contacted the furthest channel resistance line but seems poised to power on. 
  • I remain cautiously optimistic on DBC.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC is listed as speculative short/sell.
  • Still in a bearish pennant but the stock seems to be pivoting at the moment. 

Crude Oil: USO
  • USO is listed as a strong short/sell.
  • Price target is around $18.50

Gold: GLD
  • GLD is listed as a long/buy.
  • My target is around $120 however 'point and figure' charts are saying $125 which is a little confusing.

Lithium: LIT
  • LIT is still listed as a long/buy however there is a short term correction possible (near term speculative short/sell).
  • My call on LIT several weeks ago was superb but after the long run a bit of a break is necessary.
  • Please take profits.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • UNG is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • Too fast too furious - UNG needs a break and is currently overbought. I have no idea what the channel pattern actually looks like but I've taken a stab at it.

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is also listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • The ascent here has also been a little 'crazy' and a break is in order. Upper limit in the medium term is still around $17.10 to $17.30.

Jakob Richardson © 2015

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Commodity Charts and Other Things: GLD, SLV, DBC, ERY, TMV, UNG, USO

I am still in London for my board exam training so rather than going through the entire list of commodities I will instead highlight my favorites as well as some ETF's that have caught my attention.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • It has been closing in on the MA(144) very nicely and the EMA's are bullishly aligned, however now would be an opportune moment to take profits. 
  • The run for the past six weeks has been quite impressive but cannot go on forever.
  • I want to see three closes above $18.35 before I am convinced that the march upwards will continue.

Crude Oil: USO
  • USO is listed a strong short/sell.
  • I have been saying for two weeks now that I did not have much confidence in it's rise above $20.00.
  • Saudi Arabia is continuing to fight for market share and production is currently 2 million barrels a day, excess!
  • USO has come into contact with my second fan line twice and has been rebuffed strongly both times.


Gold: GLD
  • GLD is a long/buy
  • Gold was looking very weak and appeared to be poised for an imminent breakdown, however strong sales figures from the U.S. have driven the dollar down leading to GLD gapping up 1.75% which is very bullish.
  • Upper limit is set at $120.00 for the formation of this second "right shoulder."
  • EMA's are bullishly crossing over and the MA(144) is very close to be crossed as well.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • UNG is listed as a strong long/buy.
  • Bull flag has broken up and continues to look strong.
  • Upper limit is set around $17.00.

Silver: SLV
  • SLV is listed as a strong long/buy.
  • Confidence in any rising trend of precious metals must first have silver leading gold which is thankfully exactly what is happening.
  • SLV had it's own diagonal resistance line to cross before I felt confident enough to jump in (which I have with both feet). That resistance line was smashed today.
  • Upper limit for SLV is about $18.20.

Euro Index Fund: VGK
  • VGK is still listed as a strong short/sell.
  • Impressive growth numbers from France today have meant the VGK has risen but still within the boundaries of a bearish pennant. 
  • I've kept my short position (via EPV) at a loss and continue to do so as nothing in Europe has instilled confidence in me.
  • The slow stochastics (60,3) is heavily overbought at the moment.

Energy Bear Index Fund: ERY
  • ERY is a speculative long/buy.
  • Crude oil price has collapsed yet energy companies continue to have rising stock prices. 
  • Upper limit at $19.00 and $22.00.

Real Estate Bear Index Fund: DRV
  • DRV is a strong long/buy.
  • How on earth did I miss this!

U.S. Treasuries Bear Index Fund: TMV
  • I understand that yields have risen dramatically over the last three weeks but TMV is approaching a key resistance point line imminently.
  • Please take profits on TMV.

Jakob Richardson © 2015

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Commodities Charts and Other Things: Part II

In addition to commodities there are some other index funds that are making some interesting moves that I think are quite significant. I'd certainly be interested in hearing what other people have to say on the subject!

U.S. Treasuries: PLW
  • U.S. Tresuries are listed as a speculative long/buy
  • There was a sharp sell of last week and I anticipated the bottom a little too soon. Some of my near term indicators, like the slow stochastics (5,3) and PMO, are already showing a bullish crossover while longer term indicators are turning up and poised to cross over.
  • Curious is my observation with PLW that two separate bottoms were put in in it's current declining channel. One in mid-February and the other in the first week of March. These double bottom lines were also observed by tradingchannels.co.uk in the weekend edition when examining the S&P and Dow Jones. It may appear to breakdown in it's current configuration, but with those two horizontal lines guarding against any drop, not any time soon.
  • Upper resistance are $32.90


Chinese Index: FXI
  • Listed as an extremely risky long/buy.
  • I have been quite cynical of the Chinese stock market's rise for around a year now (perhaps longer, to be honest I've forgotten). Four million brokerage accounts were added last week alone and now, more than ever before, the Chinese economy seems to be trying to maintain unrealistic growth expectations through increasingly risky lending and leverage mechanisms
  • I was expecting to write about possible shorts against FXI but after the Chinese Central Bank's announcement today that it was cutting interest rates by a quarter percentage point the desired effect of levitating markets will be apparent, at least in the short-run.

Euro Index Fund: VGK
  • Listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • At lot of movement in the near-term is going to be driven by events surrounding Greece. Friday was a strong day for markets with good U.S. employment numbers, German growth and James Cameron's victory in the U.K. elections.
  • Confusing stories were coming from sources on Friday involved in the Greek negotiations with the Greek Prime Minister saying "positive steps have been taken" and European members saying "an agreement seemed unlikely by Monday." They have 48 hours left. Members of Merkel's own party today lobbied her to finally cut Greece lose.
  • VGK is still in a bearish pennant despite it's 2.4% climb.


Jakob Richardson © 2015

Saturday, May 09, 2015

Commodities Charts and Other Things: Part I

I am back in London for more exam preparation and so I will not be presenting a complete commodities report. I will however be presenting some 'select' commodities and other index ETF's that I think are interesting.

I expect next week to represent a 'retracement' period for commodities after the good run they've had lately. For the most part I would pessimistically expect them to return to their EMA(34).

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is still listed as a speculative long/buy
  • This is the most excitment I've had watching JJU since I began covering it last year! We've had contact on the final resistance line and a solid support seems to be in place at $17.00.
  • I've chosen to cover JJU this weekend because sometime the most unlikely stocks or equities making big moves can be foreshadowing of things to come
  • JJU is poised to breakout of it's current long-term declining channel, but not after first retracing to the EMA(34)

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a neutral.
  • Upper target of $18.30 was approached.
  • My sell signal a few days back was beautifully timed and we are now finally getting the retracement I expected before it breaks out of it's current horizontal pattern.

Crude Oil: USO
  • A short/sell signal is now issued.
  • I don't like USO. I called a short/sell at a previous resistance of $20.00. When it did breakout I'll still listed it as a short/sell because COT draw downs are still less than forecast and production in Saudi Arabia continues to ramp up. 
  • Please continue watching USO skeptically.
  • The fan lines I inserted last week were quite good at showing the possible turnaround we are seeing in crude.
  • 30 minute point-and-figure charts are showing a possible return to $18.50.
  • I have personally shorted USO via DWTI. 

Gold: GLD 
  • GLD is listed as a short/sell.
  • The head-and-shoulders pattern I was expecting did end up materializing.
  • A double head-and-shoulders pattern may be emerging although I think this is more of an accidental curiosity than an actual pattern. 
  • My medium term KST indicators are imminently about to cross-over downwards with my near term KST and PMO indicators already bearishly aligned.
  • My indicators have the same appearance as those patterns that look like they're about to fall off a cliff - a period of a long gently descending plateau followed by a drop.
  • Daily point-and-figure charts still have a bottom in at $95.00.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a long/buy.
  • Bullish pennant inside the the bull flag has materialized and some fantastic progress has been seen with natural gas. 
  • A very long term resistance line on the Slow Stochastics (60,3) indicator has been breached. 
  • Upper resistance around $17.00.
  • On Friday we had a break outside the bull flag which was a little unexpected after the bearish energy report on Thursday. I didn't fully take advantage of it as why expecting a more solid fall to the EMA(34).
  • Medium term KST is about to cross over bullishly. 

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a speculative short/sell.
  • The diagonal resistance line is still approaching with two hits already on it.

Jakob Richardson © 2015

Monday, May 04, 2015

Daily Commodities Report: Daily Charts

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA is listed as a neutral.
  • The final support line at $22.10 was broken today but I am still hopeful that with all the momentum that has developed behind DBA that a turnaround in a months time is still possible.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is still listed as a speculative long/buy
  •  Please take profits as this is coming up on an earlier resistance line and is outside the Keltner channels.

Coal: KOL
  • Daily chart shows KOL as a speculative long/buy
  • Consolidation pattern continues to unfold with lower support at $13.40 and upper resistance at $14.20.  
  • Where it stands right now it looks like it's consolidating upwards.

Coffee: JO
  • JO is now a short/sell.
  • That strategic pause didn't materialize like I had anticipated. The gradually ascending channel was a bear flag and now my PMO indicators are all pointing and crossing downwards which means "sell."

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is listed as a neutral.
  • Upper target of $18.30 is approaching. Please be mindful of this.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC listed as a long/buy on the daily charts. 
  • My medium term KST indicator has crossed upwards. 
  • A large bearish pennant has taken shape however in the meantime this means JJC will be ascending. 
  • Upper target of $36.00, however the last two sessions have been outside the Keltner channels which means a pause is needed before continuing.

Corn: CORN
  • CORN continues to fall almost uninterrupted since I signaled a "sell/short" back in March.

Cotton: BAL
  • BAL is listed as a speculative short/sell
  • Lower limit of current pennant is at around $44.25.

Crude Oil: USO
  • A short/sell signal is now issued.
  • I don't like USO. I called a short/sell at it's current resistance of $20.00 and it looks poised to breakout. When it does breakout, I'll still list it as a short/sell because COT draw downs are still less than forecast and production in Saudi Arabia continues to ramp up. 
  • I have inserted some blue fan lines so I now expect a much needed retracement to occur around $21.00.
  • Please continue watching USO skeptically.

Gold: GLD 
  • GLD is listed as a speculative long/buy to around $120.00.
  • The head-and-shoulders pattern did materialize. Couple this with a fall in the U.S. dollar and my near term indicators are pointing upwards.
  • A double head-and-shoulders pattern may be emerging. 
  • My medium term KST indicators continue to pinch together as if a crossover is expected in a few months.

Lithium: LIT
  • Lithium is listed as a neutral on the daily charts (long term "buy" still holds though). 
  • Please take profits as LIT is dangerously overbought and outside the Keltner channels.
  • Critical resistance on my Slow Stochastics (5,1) indicator is approaching this week.

Livestock: COW
  • COW is now listed as a long/buy.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • Natural gas is listed as a long/buy.
  • Bullish pennant inside the the bull flag has materialized and some fantastic progress has been seen with natural gas. 
  • A very long term resistance line on the Slow Stochastics (60,3) indicator has been breached. 
  • Upper resistance around $17.00.

Palladium: PALL
  • Palladium is listed as a long/buy.
  • Break out from diagonal resistance. I should have released a buy signal three days ago.

Platinum: PPLT
  • Platinum is still listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • PPLT has also emerged from it's long term declining channel (again).

Silver: SLV
  • Silver is a neutral.
  • Fantastic day with a 2.3% rise at one point. Important for any precious metals bull market that silver leads gold, however please be aware that like the other precious metals a diagonal resistance line is approaching.

Soy Bean: SOYB
  • Soy is listed as a neutral.

Steel: SLX 
  • Steel is still listed as neutral.
  • SLX broke out of it's long term declining channel and crossovers have been seen in both the short and long term KST's. 
  • In the near term however we have reached a resistance point and a retracement to around $32.00 might be possible.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is being switched to a short/sell on the daily charts in the near term.

Timber: CUT
  • CUT is listed as a strong short/sell.
  • Bearish pennant has formed so please take profits. CUT broke the diagonal support line today.

Uranium: URA
  • Uranium is a neutral.
  • A pause is needed after it's incredible rise. 

Wheat: WEAT
  • Wheat is now a short/sell on the daily chart.


Jakob Richardson © 2015