Monday, June 29, 2015

John Oliver's Explanation of the Greek Crisis


Commodities Report: Emergency Edition (CORN, DBA, JO, WEAT, BAL)

I don't know how many of you have been glued to your computer screens as I have for the last 36 hours but hyperbole aside, this really has been a "Lehman weekend." The following events have taken place:
  • An extension was requested by Greece beyond the June 30th due date to have a referendum on the ECB terms.
  • The 'referendum extension' was promptly declined.
  • Emergency liquidity has been frozen by Drahgi.
  • Capital controls by Greek banks will be enacted on Monday. (The Telegraph)
  • Piraeus Bank has publicly stated that they will remain closed for a week. (Zerohedge)
  • The Greek stock market will not open on Monday. (Reuters)
  • 1.6 billion Euros is due on Tuesday.
For this reason I don't believe doing complete coverage of the commodities market like I normally do is important but I will highlight a few surprises from Friday.

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA is listed as a speculative buy, but this could change after today and the expected flight to safety in the U.S. dollar which will have a knock-on effect on commodities.
  • The breakout in agricultural stocks has been quite surprising. EMA's are crossing over bullishly.


Coffee: JO
  • JO is still listed as a neutral.
  • The only exception to this breakout by agriculturals is coffee which is a little confusing given the dryness of South America at the moment. 
  • We won't be reaching the last resistance line of the large declining channel until the end of July.


Corn: CORN
  • CORN is listed as a speculative buy.
  • A breakout from it's long-term downward channel has occurred but has done so so strongly that it's outside the Keltner channel. The EMA's have bullishly crossed over but still remain below the MA(144).


Cotton: BAL
  • BAL is now listed as a strong long/buy.
  • This remains the only agricultural commodity above the MA(144) so it is no longer 'speculative.'
  • The indicators for cotton are looking very good.

Wheat: WEAT
  • WEAT is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • The 4.69% jump has been utterly fantastic and the gap up is quite bullish however the RSI is already above 70. I do expect the EMA's to eventually move above the MA(144) but only after a little respite. 

Jakob Richardson © 2015

Friday, June 26, 2015

Market Index Report: EDZ, EWZ, IBB, XLF, KTN, XLK, VGK, IYR, TLT, SMH, RSX, IYR, PIN, XLV

Down channels are beginning to appear in our larger ascending channels as they begin to lose control. The general theme seems to be that the the lowermost support line of these down channels is made up of the lower-highs from the previous weeks. Of course this is just a theory but too many points are lining up for me to think this is all coincidence. The critical point though that can't be forgotten is that the large ascending channels that we have been in for years (in some cases) are beginning to break down.

The 'general' theme of these new declining channels which are taking control is the following:
  • A 'false' breakdown in late May or early June.
  • The lower support line is made up of a top sometime in April and a higher low in June.
  • The upper resistance line is made up of lower-highs appearing somewhere in April, May or June.

Biotechnology: IBB
  • IBB is still listed as a short/sell which is unfortunate because last Thursday's ascent would have been catastrophic for those of you invested on the short-side.
  • We are still within the bearish rising wedge with a support line is approaching over the next two weeks (blue dotted line).
  • The EMA's look poised to cross-over, again.
  • Sorry for the premature call but I do not like the medium-term outlook for biotech and healthcare.

Brazil: EWZ
  • EWZ is now listed as a short/sell.
  • I was able to make a little off of the bounce in EWZ but now it's time to short as the declining channels are now taking control. 
  • Again you will notice that the lower support line is made up of a top back in the second week of April and a higher low in June with the upper resistance line made up of lower highs in May and June. 

China: FXI
  • FXI is listed a short/sell but may have a bounce as we get nearer to the lower support line.
  • The Chinese central authority is trying to put a cap on speculation on non-state run enterprises and reign in margin calls. This morning the Shanghai fell 8.3%, need I say more?

Emerging Markets: EEM
  • EEM is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • A week ago we witnessed the beginning of weak bounce but now a lower high looks like it is being put in while the larger channel breaks down.

Europe: VGK
  • VGK is now listed as a strong short/sell.
  • Does anyone actually think a resolution to the Hellenic debacle is going to happen?

Financial Sector: XLF
  • XLF is still listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • Currently not a great place to buy in as the EMA(9) and EMA(4) are quite detached from the EMA(13) and EMA(34).
  • PMO and KST have all bullishly crossed over.

Healthcare: XLV
  • XLV is listed as a short/sell.
  • XLV has also formed a bearish wedge and has failed to breakout above $75.75 three times before.
  • Please be aware of the blue dotted lines as resistance levels.

India: PIN
  • PIN is listed as a neutral.
  • We've reached the proposed upper resistance line so a retracement to around $21.40 should be seen in the coming weeks.

Real Estate: IYR
  • IYR is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • A bullish declining wedge has emerged. If interest rates are rising this is bullish for real estate.

Russia: RSX
  • RSX is a short/sell.

Semiconductors: SMH
  • Listed as a speculaitve short/sell.
  • EMA's have bearishly crossed over and the breakdown from a bearish rising wedge is also evident.

Technology: XLK
  • XLK is listed as a speculative short/sell.

Transportation: XTN
  • XTN is listed as a short/sell.
  • The red declining channel is firmly in control and has been re-drawn and improved. 
  • A break below the middle blue channel line has occurred.

U.S. Treasuries: TLT
  • TLT is listed a speculative long/buy.
  • The sell-off in treasuries is a little over done at the moment. A bullish declining wedge has appeared and EMA's appear poised to crossover. 
  • Pattern appears identical to real-estate which is of course not a coincidence.


Jakob Richardson © 2015

Monday, June 22, 2015

Commodities Report: Daily Charts

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA is listed as neutral with a possible bull flag developing.
  • A decline to $21.70 did happen and DBA continues to be stuck in a tight trading range.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is a short/sell.
  • My speculative call turned out to be wrong and the strong support we had at $16.20 has broken.

Coal: KOL
  • KOL is listed as neutral.
  • Around the 18th of May a sell was issued and I think the sell-off has finally finished. 
  • Things are looking a little oversold and $12.00 is a good place to begin forming a base.

Coffee: JO
  • JO is listed as a neutral.
  • Momentum continues to make positive directional movements and we are approaching the end of the dominant downward channel.
  • If $21.00 breaks down my theory of a commodities turnaround is wrong. 
  • It may look like a speculative long/buy right now but the ceiling is now drawn in at $23.23.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is being changed to neutral.
  • The current red channel is very much in control and a further slight decline is expected this week. 
  • A higher low may be in so target is tentatively set to $17.97. 

Copper: JJC
  • JJC is listed as a neutral for this week.
  • Weakness is still very much evident in it's chart but the stock has strayed outside the Keltner channels for five sessions now. A move back up to around $31.00 to get back inside is likely.

 Corn: CORN
  • CORN is listed as neutral, but a possible bull flag has developed.
  • We are still tantalizingly close to breaking out with a bottom in at $22.50.

Cotton: BAL
  • BAL is listed as a neutral.

Crude Oil: USO
  • USO is listed as a short/sell.
  • Holding $20.00 is essential - breaking below forecasts more weakness for crude.

Gold: GLD
  • GLD is a short/sell.
  • The large long term declining channel is still in control.

Lithium: LIT
  • LIT is being changed to a speculative long/buy.
  • The chart still looks weak but momentum is still positive so maybe the decline from mid May is coming to an end. 

Livestock: COW
  • COW is listed as a short/sell.
  • Support was broken at $26.90 so this means we might see a decline to $25.50.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • I expect some more weakness ("speculative short/sell") next in UNG but I have attempted to draw what the new channel may look like.
  • UNG could quickly change to a "buy" this week. 
  • UNG has to stay above $12.80 in order for this speculative uptrend to stay.

Palladium: PALL
  • No comment.

Silver: SLV
  • SLV is being changed to a speculative long/buy as a strong bounce may take place at $15.10.

Soy: SOYB
  • No comment.

Steel: SLX
  • SLX is listed as a neutral.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is listed as a long/buy.
  •  I am predicting a bounce off of the lowermost support line.

Timber: CUT
  • CUT is listed a short/sell.

Uranium: URA
  • URA is a short/sell.

Wheat: WEAT
  • WEAT is listed as a speculative long/buy.

Jakob Richardson © 2015

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Market Report: EEM, EWZ, IBB, IYR, SMH, TLT, VGK, XLF, XLK, XLV, XTN

I am inaugurating a new section on my blog called "The Market Report." This new section will cover major ETF indexes like biotechnology, emerging markets and healthcare. With this new section I will be able to provide more coverage to my readers but will also allow you to take advantage of triple leveraged ETF's.

Biotechnology: IBB
  • IBB is listed as a short/sell.
  • I've been short a long time on this and it's gone nowhere. Momentum remains above zero however it has been slowly declining over time. 
  • A bearish rising wedge has been produced and a support line is approaching over the next two weeks (blue dotted line).
  • The EMA's look poised to cross-over, too.

Brazil: EWZ
  • EWZ is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • We only have two hits on the lower support line so it does suggest upward movement and my KST and PMO indicators suggest the same but something still doesn't feel right.  

Emerging Markets: EEM
  • EEM is listed as a neutral.
  • We have had a very strong decline in EEM starting back in late April and now we find ourselves at the final support line. I think it's asking a little too much for it to simply breakdown here so perhaps an enfeebled bounce beforehand is what will happen.
  • RSI looks like it is putting in a higher low indicating a possible rise from here. 

Europe: VGK
  • VGK is listed as a strong short/sell.
  • The bearish wedge broke down and now we find ourselves hovering above the final support line. Does anyone actually think a resolution to the Hellenic debacle is going to happen?

Financial Sector: XLF
  • XLF is listed as a long/buy.
  • Currently not a great place to buy in as the EMA(9) and EMA(4) are quite detached from the EMA(13) and EMA(34).
  • PMO and KST have all crossed bullishly over.

Healthcare: XLV
  • XLV is listed as a short/sell.
  • XLV has also formed a bearish wedge and has failed to breakout above $75.75 three times before.
  • Please be aware of the blue dotted lines as resistance levels.

India: PIN
  • PIN is listed as a strong long/buy.
  • A strong bounce off the final blue support line was seen on 12th of June and now headway is being made towards the final resistance line of the red descending channel.

Real Estate: IYR
  • IYR is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • A bullish declining wedge has emerged. If interest rates are rising this is bullish for real estate.

Russia: RSX
  • RSX is a speculative long/buy.
  • The red channel appears to be in control but emerging market fundamentals look really good at the moment.

Semiconductors: SMH
  • Listed as a speculaitve short/sell.
  • EMA's have bearishly crossed over and the breakdown from a bearish rising wedge is also evident.

Technology: XLK
  • XLK is listed as a speculative short/sell.

Transportation: XTN
  • XTN is listed as a short/sell.
  • The red declining channel is firmly in control and it appears poised to break below the middle blue support line.
  • News from today's events should provide more direction.

U.S. Treasuries: TLT
  • TLT is listed a speculative long/buy.
  • The sell-off in treasuries is a little over done at the moment. A bullish declining wedge has appeared and EMA's appear poised to crossover.

Jakob Richardson © 2015