Sunday, July 19, 2015

Hot Picks: Treasuries, Real Estate, India, Agriculture, Natural Gas and Oil

I've noticed some hot setups coming into view that I think people should be aware of. Treasuries are looking particularly promising for the remainder of the year and Natural Gas along with Crude Oil I believe are poised to begin a large ascent. I will be the first to admit I am not the best when it comes to knowing when to 'hold' an investment, but I do have an uncanny ability to see when things are turning and most of what follows are examples of this.

Treasuries: TLT
  • TLT is listed as a very strong long/buy.
  • We have an EMA(13) poised to cross an EMA(34) with a descending MA(144) closing in. A bullish scenario is already beginning to present itself.
  • The large declining red channel that TLT currently finds itself has undergone a typical Elliot Wave 5/3/5 decline. 
  • I expect a rise from here to around $122.00 followed by a modest retracement to the EMA(13) before finally breaking out. In the meantime momentum has diverged very nicely for three months now.

Real Estate: IYR
  • IYR is listed a very strong long/buy.
  • Real estate (apparently) becomes more attractive in an environment of rising interest rates. This might explain IYR's curve mirroring that of TLT.
  • Currently we have strayed a little too far from the EMA(13) and (34) as well as having come up on some resistance in $74.25 to $75.75 region so I expect a decline before continuing onwards. 
  • Upward resistance is at $76.50 before breaking out.

 India: PIN
  • PIN is listed a long/buy.
  • I was able to take advantage of the first half of this rise but not rest!
  • The EMA(13) has crossed over the EMA(34) and both are now over the MA(144). PIN is currently filling a gap going back to April which it most likely will.  
  • A retracement is expect judging by the RSI(5) but the medium term prospects look really good for PIN.

Crude Oil and Natural Gas: USO UNG
  •  UNG and USO are listed as very strong speculative long/buys.
  • I am not able to describe one without the other since UNG often follows USO. Of the two UNG appears to be the most optimistically positioned but an ascent is not very likely without USO following in tow. Looking at USO the last week or so has been punishing, a few days of which were spent outside the Keltner channel.
  • USO has been planted to the lower-most support line and indicators are showing that it's oversold at the moment. The RSI(5) is flashing a 'long/buy,' too.
  • In short, a recovery is needed at least to about $19.80 which keeps USO in the neighborhood of the fibonacci fan (shown in pink).
  • theartofchart.net (for whom I have an enormous amount of respect) is forecasting a crude return to $67.00.
  • This recovery may signal the moment for UNG to finally resume its ascent. First there needs to be a tap on the EMA(13) or (34) in the following week after-which I expect it to continue rising.

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA is listed as a strong long/buy
  • "Aggies" have been doing quite well of late (please refer to JO, WEAT, COW). 
  • DBA is a breath away from touching the EMA(34) which makes it a great buy opportunity. Furthermore, the MA(144) has finally been passed which is making this a great bullish setup.
  • Consumer staples typically do very well this time of year until around mid-September. 


Jakob Richardson © 2015

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Market Index Report: IBB, EWX, FXI, EEM, VGK, XLF, XLV, IYR, RSX, SMH, XLK, TLT, XLE

We find ourselves in interesting times on Wednesday. The S&P has had five sessions of gains and Greece is expected to vote on austerity measures tonight signalling a final capitulation to Germany. 

Biotechnology: IBB
  • IBB is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • I didn't have any other trades going on at the moment so I decided to short IBB (via BIS) at the morning bell when it opened outside the Keltner channel. IBB is a little too far away from EMA(13) at the moment and the RSI is overbought. 

China: FXI
  • FXI is listed as a short/sell.
  • The bounce we were expecting has taken place but the Chinese government has just put restrictions on the sale of over 1200 listed companies so issues seem far from resolved.

Consumer Staples: XLP
  • XLP is listed as a neutral.
  • A major breakout occured this week with XLP moving north of $49.50. From now until early September is often a bullish period for staples.

Energy: XLE
  • EEM is listed as a neutral.
  • A modest 'buy' was advised when XLE moved outside the Keltner channel a week and in that time retraced to the EMA(13).
  • Tentative bottom in at $72.50.
  • I've begun to pay much closer attention to XLE as a strong long/buy moment may be approaching.

Europe: VGK
  • VGK is now listed as a neutral.
  • Does anyone actually think a resolution to the Hellenic debacle is going to happen? 
  • Our channel has dramatically widened and the direction of VGK is governed entirely by the news so I unfortunately cannot provide anymore direction.

India: PIN
  • PIN is listed as a speculative short/sell.
  • We've reached the proposed upper resistance line so a retracement to around $21.60 should be seen in the coming weeks (or wherever the EMA(34) happens to be). 
  • Upper target set at $24.35 but I would really like to first see a move above $22.20. 

Real Estate: IYR
  • IYR is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • A bullish declining wedge has emerged. If interest rates are rising this is bullish for real estate.
  • Near-term please take profits if you can but my PMO and PPO indicators have bullishly crossed over. We're still below the MA(144) which makes this speculative but a bottom may be forming.

Russia: RSX
  • RSX is a speculative short/sell
  • Near term at least RSX doesn't look great. The EMA(13) and (34) are both diverging downwards.
  • A good short entry at $18.20.

Semiconductors: SMH
  • Listed as a speculaitve long/buy.
  • We were recently outside the Keltner channel which forced a retracement. Evidence of a large downward channel is emerging but near term SMH may crawl back to $55.20
  • There may be a slow ascent from here before there's another leg downwards which could take six weeks.

Transportation: XTN
  • XTN is listed as a speculaitve short/sell.
  • I listed this as a 'buy' until it hit the EMA(34) two days ago. 

U.S. Treasuries: TLT
  • TLT is listed as a long/buy.
  • The sell-off in treasuries is a little over done at the moment. A bullish declining wedge appeared and TLT has broken out. 
  • After testimony today it is virtually assured that we will witness interest rate increases later in the year.
  • EMA's are crossing over bullishly.

Jakob Richardson © 2015

Sunday, July 12, 2015

Commodities Report: DBA, JJU, KOL, GLD, SLV, PALL, PPLT, URA, USO, UNG, JO, COW, SGG, SLX, URA, CUT, WEAT

Given the critical pivoting the market is making these days I thought it best to post both daily and weekly charts.
  • Agriculturals are generally looking very strong in the long-term.
  • Precious metals like SLV and GLD are holding at critical support lines at the moment. Failure to hold would be very bearish.
  • Crude oil next week might see a little bounce but it has much further to fall.
  • Natural gas has a critical resistance line to break through.

Agriculture: DBA
  • DBA is listed as speculative short/sell.
  • The weekly chart is showing some short term over-bought qualities and I think a little retracement is still in the cards when looking at the daily chart. 
  • The EMA(34) on the daily chart is at $22.57 which is where I see this as a buying opportunity
  • The EMA's are closing in on the MA(144) though which is bullish.

Aluminum: JJU
  • JJU is a short/sell.

Coal: KOL
  • KOL is listed as a speculative long/buy
  • On the weekly chart KOL has contacted a long term support line which has served as a bottom in previous scenarios. I'm making the call, KOL is a long term buy.

Coffee: JO
  • JO is listed as a speculative long/buy.
  • Momentum continues to make positive directional movements and we are approaching the end of the dominant downward channel.
  • If $21.00 breaks down my theory of a commodities turnaround is wrong. 
  • The weekly chart indicators are showing a lot of bullish crossovers.

Commodities: DBC
  • DBC is being changed to neutral.
  • The current red channel is very much in control and a further slight decline is expected this week. 
  • A higher low may be in so target is tentatively set to $17.97.  
  • A firm bottom seems to be in at around $16.70 but the complicating issue here is that the crude oil component is dragging the other strong commodities down in the DBC index.

Copper: JJC
  • JJC is listed as a short/sell.
  • The weekly chart still looks very unhealthy.

 Corn: CORN
  • CORN is listed now listed as a long-term buy.
  • Resistance will permeate from $27.00 to $28.00 and the RSI(5) is showing overbought conditions so a pause is in order for the foreseeable future. 

Crude Oil: USO
  • USO is listed as a short/sell.
  • In the coming week we may have a pause in USO's fall, however a final collapse to $15.60 is still likely.

Gold: GLD
  • GLD is a neutral.
  • The large long term declining channel is still in control but a very solid support at $110.00 is present. Let's watch....

Lithium: LIT
  • LIT is being changed to a speculative long/buy for next week.
  • The long term chart of LIT still looks very very unhealthy and I foresee it reaching the the lowermost support red support line on the weekly chart. Long term LIT is a short/sell.
  • Medium term LIT is still a short/sell.

Livestock: COW
  • COW is listed as a short/sell.
  • Support was broken at $26.90 so this means we might see a decline to $25.50.

Natural Gas: UNG
  • UNG is a speculative long/buy.
  • Looking at the weekly chart an excellent "bottoming" pattern is appearing (although I am fearful that what has been created is a bear flag).
  • On the daily chart early in the week we should hopefully see UNG break through the diagonal resistance (blue dotted line).

Silver: SLV
  • SLV is being changed to a speculative long/buy.
  • SLV is dangerously close to falling through support at $14.50 on the weekly chart but is also making excellent progress towards the final channel resistance line. I'll play the devils advocate and say that support will hold.

Soy: SOYB
  • SOY is a long/buy in the medium term.
  • On the weekly chart an eventual rise to $21.50 looks possible.

Sugar: SGG
  • Sugar is listed as a neutral.

Timber: CUT
  • CUT is listed a short/sell
  • There might be a bounce next week but the long term outlook for CUT is negative.

Uranium: URA
  • URA is a short/sell.

Wheat: WEAT
  • WEAT is listed as a long/buy.
  • Long term wheat is looking quite strong although near term there may be a minor retracement.

Jakob Richardson © 2015