Thursday, January 07, 2016

Market Update: Natural Gas (UNG, $NATGAS), Biotechnology ($BTK), Gold Miners ($GDM), Volatility (VXX), and $NYMO

A lot of recommendations I've made recently need to be reviewed so I just thought I would mention them here.

My short/sell on biotechnology ($BTK) was spot on except I exited the trade a little early and have subsequently missed out on the last two days. The problem is, the daily charts are not much help in suggesting whether there's going to be another buying opportunity (I really want to get back in). When I look at the weekly chart, another picture emerges and that's that the breakdown in the bearish ascending wedge has just started. When I do enter, it'll be a crap entry but I was previously of the belief that this would be a small short-term correction, but this recent development suggests there is more to come.
My suggested short/sell on natural gas ($NATGAS) will unfortunately take at least two more weeks to materialize. My apologies, but I called the downturn a little early.
My long/buy call on gold miners was also spot on, but embarrassingly it's a little stronger and faster than I originally imagined. This of course is because capital outflows from China have been about fifth of what's actually been reported. In addition to this, Saudi Arabia has now reported their interest in devaluation as well.
Where are we headed? Well the VXX chart might help you by showing that it has just broken upwards.
Also, the NYMO chart shows that we have a lot of distance still to cover before we reach the lower Keltner band. The 14 day stochastic indicator has (worryingly) just crossed over.