Wednesday, January 27, 2016

What's up with commodities and the U.S. dollar? Something going on the rest of us don't know??!?

I must confess I love being OCD, it has definite advantages. Not upsetting my mother so much while I was a child might have been nice, but now as an adult living on my own I have to say being OCD is actually cool. It means my little apartment is clean and smells nice when women come over. It means there's a certain present-ability about myself when patient's see how I dress at the hospital. It means I won't stop til I've landed a particular step-up or drop on my bike or risk having my ego implode if it means riding home knowing I couldn't do it. It means I won't stop till all six of my arrows have hit the red '10' area on my target before I can call it a day. It also means that I periodically return to charts, even if it means just glancing at them, because I live in mortal fear that I might be missing something (also, general curiosity).

When this website first started I thought I'd cover all the commodities, so the charts at least are all present for me to do this. Glancing at them recently I've begun to notice however that bullish declining wedges are appearing in a few of them which has left me a little confused as I can't rationalize the market in the next six months with rising commodity prices. The image I have of things unfolding over the next six months is increasing VIX/volatility and an S&P filling a megaphone shape. In a difficult global market that is trying to absorb and grapple with the sheer scale of the oncoming Chinese credit bubble doesn't really have any room for rising commodities, so what's going on?  Does this means the U.S. dollar is going to tumble in the near future to explain these rises, because I can't come up with anything else?!?

Coffee: JO
 Commodities ETF: DBC
Copper: JJC
 Crude Oil: USO
 Agricultural ETF: DBA
 Palladium: PALL
 Silver: SLV

The U.S. dollar seems to be putting in two separate ascending bearish triangles. Let's see how things pan out over the next few months.