Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Gold Miners (GDX): Sizzling And Kind Of Burnt To A Crisp

I've used up my quota for my monthly 4G internet allowance so unfortunately I'm using my iPhone to get on the internet and post this so it must be short! Gold miners are getting seriously squeezed at the moment - frankly this is a pretty obvious sell/short trade for me. Right now on the 30 minute chart a bearish ascending wedge continues to go in with a major divergence appearing on the momentum indicator (MACD). This has been building for a few days now and I would expect that any decline to also take a few days. I've mapped out the Fibonacci retracements for our recent ascent in blue, however because of the prolonged rise since January the 19th I have also put out the retracements in pink for the medium-term. This is not a top, it is an intermediate 'pause' in the first stages a gold bull-market.
The daily charts for GDX are showing much of a sameness. Quite obviously any rise in an equity that skirts the Keltner channels like this and then ends up overbought on the stochastics, MACD and RSI with divergences appearing prominently in all of them is definitely going in for a slide. Support at $16.50 (the 38.2% Fibonacci level) is a real possibility as it's also the uppermost support line from our previous downtrend.