Saturday, April 30, 2016

Gold Miners (GDX): Looks Like I Just Picked A Big Bouquet Of Woopsie-Dasies

I have made terrible calls on Gold Miners since February and have paid dearly, but I've only just realized that I identified the beginning of the run earlier while others hadn't. The wider market entered late driving GDX well past over-bought levels at a time when I thought a pull-back was appropriate and timely in order to develop and sustain a longer, healthier drawn out rise (sometimes this happens in the stock market, believe-it-or-not). Short positions by large commercial investors are at their highest in years and this fact can't be ignored. People are getting greedy at this point. It's still the very beginning of a long rise as faith in Central Bankers has steadily been eroded, but looking at the weekly chart our next and now most likely stop is about $26.25. This level will represent the resistance line for a long term downward channel and a level for highs put in back in February and August of 2014. At the rate we've been going this looks to be happening in the next week or two as the the weekly RSI(5) is hopelessly overbought and the RSI(14) just crossed 70.