Sunday, April 10, 2016

Weekend Review: Consumer Staples (XLP), Real Estate (IYR), Financials (XLF), Gold Miners (GDX), Technology (XLK), Volatility (VXX), American Dollar (UUP), Natural Gas (UNG), Gold (GLD)

Markets:
Consumer Stapes: XLP
Consumer Staples (XLP) is showing several strong sell signals on the RSI(5), is in a bearish declining wedge and is heavily over-bought on the MACD. 
Real Estate: IYR
This is one of the most unhealthy charts I've seen in a while. IYR should be a strong short/sell. Sell signals abound on the RSI(5), TRIX, and MACD. 
Financials: XLF
XLF was rejected by a resistance line about a week ago which initiated our sell/short signal and was later confirmed by an RSI(5) sell signal. I'm not sure where this is headed though.
Gold Miners: GDX
What can I say? My sell call recently was disastrous so I am calling an intermediate top at $22.30 to $23.00. Gold miners are still heavily over-bought and we need a breather at some point in the medium term.
Technology: XLK
XLK has come up on a long term resistance line and has also put in a bearish ascending wedge. A short/sell signal has appeared here on the RSI(5).
Volatility: VXX
I really like the look of VXX at the moment. We recently witnessed a (mixed) breakout from its declining bullish wedge

Currencies:
American Dollar: UUP
Uncle Buck has been in a bullish declining wedge for a while now and looks set to make moves in the next week or so. UUP is a long/buy but we do not have a clear signal on the RSI(5). 
Australian Dollar: FXA
FXA has been punished lately which is hardly surprising given what a commodity heavy currency it is. We've seen a breakdown from one ascending bearish triangle which might produce a bounce at $74.50 but unfortunately I see nothing but more pain for the Dingo.

Commodities:
Natural Gas: UNG
UNG seems to be putting in an ascending bullish triangle. I think Natural Gas is good here for at least a little run higher.
Gold: GLD
A bullish declining wedge was created which recently saw breakout. I'm not sure how much further this is going to go, but please be warned this looks like it's going to end in a little blow-off top before correcting back and retracing. There's a lot of small speculative money in gold right now and COT reports are showing a lot of institutional shorts developing.