Sunday, June 12, 2016

Week In Review: Volatility (VXX), Europe (VGK), Financials (XLF), Healthcare (XLV), Semiconductors (SMH), Small Cap (IWM), and Technology (XLK)

Next week is going to be a very interesting week with a verdict coming in on a rates-increase. The theme for next week is the resolution of all these bearish ascending wedges, most of which began their breakdown Friday. If I hadn't been on-call this past week at the hospital I would be a rich man with all the collapses currently occuring!

Europe: VGK
By far the most depressing chart on this weekend's list VGK has broken down from a long-term ascending channel that began back in January. This is a very bearish development.
Financials: XLF
I really wish I had caught this sooner  but an ascending bearish wedge in Financials has just broken down. Support can be found around $23.00 and $22.60. Support should be found somewhere along my proposed support channel line at $22.40 to $22.60.
Healthcare: XLV
There was a firm rejection at $72.50 this past week. XLV is currently in a channel that already has two hits on the lower support line which I don't think will hold. We should eventually see a breakdown.
Semiconductors: SMH
Another chart I wish I had been paying closer attention to. A very aggressive ascending wedge broke down on SMH Friday with support appearing at $55.00.
Small Cap: IWM
Another ascending wedge break down while also being rejected at $118.50 (which I called and tweeted earlier in the week). This is pattern is within an ascending channel with two hits on the lower support line which I think will also break down. Quite a bearish development has begun.
Technology: XLK
I hadn't appreciated XLK until recently but there is a massive ascending wedge going back a year on it with a smaller condensing triangle also developing. You can break either direction with a condensing triangle, but while it's within a bearish wedge I am leaning towards a move downwards.
Volatility: VXX
This has been a puzzlement as several declining wedges have appeared without a single bullish break upwards. What's put me off of VXX was the move Friday was a little too strong so I'm content watching it for now.