Sunday, July 24, 2016

Commodities (DBC): Long Term Trend Break Or Double Top?

I'm getting a little sick and tired of this market. I haven't had this long a stretch of not being able to 'read' it for a very long time, but it keeps grinding higher. As we get into the vacation month of August I expect things to get worse and this trend to continue. All I can advise at this stage is, buy the dip!

Commodities ETF DBC made a break with a long term up-trend recently. Slope of Hope and others have made a big deal about this and are using this, I think mistakenly, as a sign that it forecasts worse things to come. I feel quite the opposite as DBC now is in a bullish declining wedge and putting in wave 3 of a possible larger 5 wave uptrend, a double top might even go in. In the near-term however I would expect a retracement before it either breaks resistance of the channel line or turns back down.