Sunday, September 25, 2016

Energy (USO and XLE) Gone From Bad To Worse, Thanks To OPEC

So Saudi Arabia is apparently "willing to cooperate" and "cut output levels" according to an article published by Bloomberg, and this after a tumble of 3.7% on Friday, but that the upcoming meeting in Algiers of OPEC members will be "consultative" and unlikely to produce any firms commitments. What I find laughable about this proposal is the effect it will have on the actual price of oil. 800,000 more barrels of oil are being pumped into the market now compared to August while Nigeria and Libya have solved previous supply disruptions. I'm not sure where all this oil is going since capacity is at an absolute limit at the moment, but it seems conditions are being created to lower prices even further.

Energy ETF's are not looking hot at the moment. Energy Sector ETF XLE seems to be putting in a large topping pattern while recently being in a declining triangle formation. A critical support at $67.00 is in, so please monitor carefully.
What's particularly worrisome is the appearance of the Crude Oil ETF USO which I think might be showing a head-and-shoulders pattern. I haven't always been the best at identifying these patterns, but regardless, the EMA's are bearishly aligned with important support levels at $9.80 and $9.30. It could be that the rebound in energy was all a pipe dream if these supports are lost.

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