Monday, February 29, 2016

Daily News Roundup: If you condense my whole life down to one day, it's pretty decent.

International Affairs:
Trump looks unstoppable (Bloomberg)
The party's front runner is unfit to lead America (The Economist)

Business & Finance:
Citi: Worrisome change in the new corporate debt market (Bloomberg)
Eurozone slides back into deflation (The Telegraph)
China slowdown bites with 1.8 million coal and steal jobs set to go (The Telegraph)
Chicago PMI collapses from "mysterious" January bounce as employment crashes to 7 year lows (Zero Hedge)
Commodities:
Natural gas futures decline as investors eye early spring (Bloomberg)
Bullish oil bets rise as hedge funds see supply tightening (Bloomberg)
Iran planning to ramp up oil production (Click 2 Houston)

Environment:
World's largest floating solar farm powers up outside of London (The Guardian)
PG&G  says 30% of the energy it delivers comes from renewables (Wind Power Engineering)

Art & Design:
Freight trucks to become mobile art galleries (Design You Trust)
Land Rover 40th Anniversary edition by Over Finch (Hi Consumption)
Presenting the Alfa Romeo Disco Volante (The Awesomer)
Chris Rock's opening monolgoue at the Academy Awards (The Awesomer)

Guest Post: China Continues to Slash and Burn

China Cuts Key Rate For Fifth Time In A Year

In a move aimed at addressing liquidity concerns in the country, China’s central bank announced Monday it will lower the amount of deposits banks need to hold in reserve by 0.5 percentage points. The move, which comes into effect Tuesday, marks the fifth time the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has reduced the ratio in the…

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Week in Review: Agriclture (DBA), Coal (KOL), Coffee (JO), Commodities (DBC), Corn (CORN), Crude (USO), Livestock (COW), Natural Gas (UNG), Platinum (PPLT) and Steel (SLX)

After the success of yesterday's Week in Review for the general market index ETF's I decided to post some interesting daily charts from the commodities market. Curiously, while bearish ascending wedges seem to be going in for the market ETF's, most the commodities ETF's are putting in bullish declining wedges.

Agriculture: DBA
As noted earlier in the week a very large bullish declining wedge has developed. The breakout so far seems a little tepid so let's watch this closely, but a breakout is a breakout.
Coal: KOL
No wedges here but we do have to respect the trend which is a narrow ascending channel. EMA's have also bullishly crossed over so I say "run with it."
Coffee: JO
We've been running on decalf since about July last year while a bullish declining wedge developed. It continues to pinch so a breakout feels imminent
Commodities: DBC
The commodities ETF seems to be doing something a little different than everyone else with it occupying a strong downward channel. It appears possible that a breakout of one bullish declining wedge occurred recently with DBC now in a triangle that's able to break either way.
Corn: CORN
CORN is also in a large bullish declining wedge holding at support at $20.75.
Crude: USO
This kind of went under the radar for me but crude had a weak breakout Friday! Nigerian Oil Minister said on CNBC that OPEC will agree to a production freeze with the price range around $50.
Livestock: COW
Livestock ETF COW seems to be bucking the trend with a bearish ascending wedge going in
Natural Gas: UNG
I am heavily invested in this one and I've been losing money all week, so I'm hoping I'm still correct with my call of a bullish declining wedge.
Platinum: PPLT
Platinum seems to have put in a bearish declining wedge and just broke down (along with many of the other precious metals).
Steel: SLX
Steel ETF SLX also seems to have put in a bearish declining wedge after having recently broken out from a long-term downtrend. There's a lot of room for further ascent, however, so the time for a fall is not immediate.

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Guest Post: Gold(corp) Losing It's Luster (G.TO)

Goldcorp Inc cuts dividend, lowers production guidance for next three years

Goldcorp Inc. slashed its dividend and lowered its production guidance for the next three years on Thursday as the company tries to maintain a strong balance sheet and faces unexpected problems at an Ontario project. The stock dropped 13 per cent on Friday in response to the news, closing at $18.73 in Toronto. It was the…

Week in Review: Biotechnology ($BTK), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), Gold Miners (GDX), Semiconductors (SMH), Short High Yields (SJB), Small Caps (IWM), and the S&P ($SPX)

A lot has happened this week and it will continue happening. The G20 is currently meeting with a statement to be made tomorrow, the European Central Bank is meeting on the 10th, the Bank of Japan on the 15th, the Federal Open Market Committee on the 16th and finally OPEX on the 18th. We have a very busy schedule this month. Meanwhile this past week has generally been positive but I have noticed a lot of bearish ascending wedges going in, albeit with plenty of room for upside movement. Below are a choice collection of some interesting patterns developing on the 30 minute charts for various equities.

Biotechnology: $BTK
I think there is still upside possible but it appears like an incomplete bearish wedge is going in.
Energy: XLE
It's hard to say if this is an bullish ascending triangle or a bearish rising wedge. There's a lot of resistance at $59.00 coming up on the daily chart and the 30 minute chart just doesn't look like it's going to break up.
Financials: XLF
Massive bearish ascending wedge going in but there is still plenty of upside in the meantime.
Gold Miners: GDX
Bearish ascending wedge that broke Friday - nuff' said.
Semiconductors: SMH
Another large bearish ascending wedge with plenty of upside still possible before it breaks down.
Short High Yields: SJB
Bullish descending wedge with a little room still to go down.
Small Caps: IWM
Another very large ascending bearish wedge has appeared. A little more room still present for upside movement.
S&P: $SPX
Finally, the S&P ascending bearish ascending wedge which still shows a very healthy ascent.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Daily News Roundup: I had some fruit today. Actually, it was fruit juice. The juice was a little old, so it had actually fermented. It was wine. I had wine today.

Business & Finance:
Pimco adviser sees "The trade of a decade in Emerging markets" (Bloomberg)
A Brexit-inspired sterling crisis could be just what the doctor ordered (The Telegraph)
The danger of a Brexit (The Economist)
Halliburton cuts 8% of workforce (Zero Hedge)

International Affairs:
Greece warns of humanitarian disaster over refugees (Bloomberg)

Commodities:
CIBC warns loan losses could double if economy slips into "recessionary environment" (Financial Post)
Ontario court ruling opens road to Ring of Fires $60 billion in mineral wealth (Financial Post)
China tries to tackle its commodities crisis (Bloomberg)
Energy price war spreads to gas as US shale storms global market, stalks Russia (The Telegraph)
Russia not to increase oil output in 2016 (Tass)

Environment:
Norway announces Europe's largest onshore wind project (Tree Hugger)
India plans 750 MW solar park with 100 MW storage capacity (Clean Technica)

Art & Design:
A plush Vincent Van Gogh doll that comes with a detachable left ear (Design You Trust)
Star Wars posters by Matt Ferguson (Bless this stuff)
Candide Thovex: One of those days 3 (Gear Patrol)

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Guest Post: Oil Producers Must Adapt Or Die

Oil price plunges after Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi rules out production cuts

OPEC and other key producers will meet once again in March to further discuss their proposal to freeze output, according to Saudi Arabian oil minister, Ali Al Naimi. As oilsands punished, tanker loads of cheap Saudi oil sail into Canadian ports daily Claudia Cattaneo: ‘Where is the political outrage over oil imports from rogue nations with…

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Gold Miners (GDX): Sizzling And Kind Of Burnt To A Crisp

I've used up my quota for my monthly 4G internet allowance so unfortunately I'm using my iPhone to get on the internet and post this so it must be short! Gold miners are getting seriously squeezed at the moment - frankly this is a pretty obvious sell/short trade for me. Right now on the 30 minute chart a bearish ascending wedge continues to go in with a major divergence appearing on the momentum indicator (MACD). This has been building for a few days now and I would expect that any decline to also take a few days. I've mapped out the Fibonacci retracements for our recent ascent in blue, however because of the prolonged rise since January the 19th I have also put out the retracements in pink for the medium-term. This is not a top, it is an intermediate 'pause' in the first stages a gold bull-market.
The daily charts for GDX are showing much of a sameness. Quite obviously any rise in an equity that skirts the Keltner channels like this and then ends up overbought on the stochastics, MACD and RSI with divergences appearing prominently in all of them is definitely going in for a slide. Support at $16.50 (the 38.2% Fibonacci level) is a real possibility as it's also the uppermost support line from our previous downtrend.

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Agriculture (DBA): The 'Aggies' Continue to Converge

I've mentioned before that agriculture (DBA) (like many resource based stocks/ETF's at the moment) appears to be in bullish declining wedges and have been for a long time, too. Agriculture looks the most enticing of the bunch because it's been squeezing very tightly at the moment. This should portend a significant move up at some point in the near future. I previously recommended DBA at the end of January and since then aside from a small decline my strong long/buy recommendation still stands. Momentum (MACD) has been slowly moving in a positive direction and hopefully a break above zero will happen, and soon too as there very little room left to maneuver. Stops should be set at around $19.50.

Guest Post: The global economy is addicted to lose monetary policy, Central Banks are planning QE4

Canada 'leading the charge' as calls for more fiscal stimulus grow

OTTAWA - Canada is emerging ahead of the pack as an increasing number of economic bodies around the world are calling on governments to ramp up public spending amid stubbornly weak global economic growth. OECD sharply downgrades Canadian growth, calls for urgent action on world economy The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said in a…

Saturday, February 20, 2016

Daily News Roundup: What's sailing like? Stand in a cold shower and tear up $100 bills

Business & Finance:
Canada's credit cycle has never been this desynchronized from the United States (Bloomberg)
China lenders' foreign exchange holdings omitted from PBOC data (Bloomberg)
Is Central Bank intervention imminent? (Zero Hedge)
Negative rates: Desperate gimmick of vital strategy (The Globe and Mail)

International Affairs:
Cameron calls for EU referendum for June 23rd (Bloomberg)
Turkey moves closer to a fight with Syria - and Russia (The Economist)
How Cameron took on the eurozone and won (The Telegraph)

Commodities:
Russia: Top oil states to complete output talks (Bloomberg)
The stressed out oil-industry faces an existential crisis amid "abyss of $27 oil" (Financial Post)
Gold outlook is positive, TD says, as miners' stock prices climb higher (Financial Post)

Environment:
Installed solar power capacity touches 5,000 MW in January (Economic Times)
Global wind power capacity tops nuclear energy for first time (Kyodo News)

Art & Design:
Virgin Galatic officially debuts SpaceShip Two, the VSS Unity (Slash Gear)
The 25 best photography books (Hi Consumption)
Classic cars found abandoned in Welsh mine for 40 years (Design You Trust)
Powersliding on Vancouver's North Shore (Hi Consumption)

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Natural Gas (UNG): Fool me once....

I've been burned several times in the past by the Natural Gas (UNG). The Natural Gas market is a strange and cruel mistress that takes the hearts of men (and woman) and does whatever she pleases. Recently however, and now remember she does owe me a few, a bullish descending wedge was put in on the daily chart. Additionally, we are at the level of the low water mark in December ($6.90) so perhaps a double bottom has emerged? To have a bullish pattern emerge at this level I find all too convenient.
This is a play that I think is only good for a short-term move because Natural Gas has been on a slide for such a long time, but I am genuinely eager about Natural Gas and the possibilities it holds for the future. A report recently stated that the developing world prefers Natural Gas for energy over coal fueled power stations which I think is a huge a environmental boost.

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Energy (XLE): Like alcohol the energy market is the cause of, and solution too, all of life's problems

Energy (XLE) broke through several barriers today, not the least of which was because Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia all agreed on something (I know, right). XLE is making all the right moves for creating some positive upward momentum in the medium-term (still doubtful if I'm honest) and the EMA's are coming together nicely but XLE came up on a very strong resistance line today. This line was a support line from an intermediate low in late August, late September, December and was also an upward resistance line last month. After today's rise coupled with the rise we've had in the last four sessions I think tomorrow might have a bit of a pullback. I'm not for one second suggesting a huge crash is imminent but the signal line on a couple of indicators have crossed '80' (RSI, stochastics) so it might get a little crowded over the next few days.
Nowhere is this retracement more apparent than on the 30 minute chart where a bearish ascending wedge has been put in. There's a gap that needs to be filled that also happens to be right next to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from $55.75 to about $56.75, so maybe it'll head to this area before turning back up again.

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Volatility (VXX) might be telling us where this is all going

Hindsight is always 20/20. Retrospectively, everything makes sense when are our rational minds look at the beginning and end of a series of particular events. The last World Cup was great a example: of course Germany would beat the hosts 7-1 in a semifinal game with their solid disciplined style and consistent, almost mechanical output each and every game. Of course they were destined to win the whole thing. I don't remember hearing anyone screaming at the top of their lungs at the beginning of the tournament that Germany was a sure thing, however. Events always have such a peculiar way of eventually working themselves out. It's for this reason that I am happy to report I am taking advantage of this counter-trend bounce, but looking at the Volatility indicators and ETF's (VXX) some hints are being dropped about where we may end up.

To get an idea of where we are headed we need to first look at the weekly charts for VXX. First of all, please remember we have broken out of our long-term downtrend pattern (shown by the red channel) which was followed by moving into a triangular condensing-pattern (blue dotted pattern). We have since broken upwards with the momentum indicators turning positive for the first time since about late 2011. Things are a little tired on the upside (on the RSI) and so to unwind these over-bought conditions I propose that a pullback on VXX to about $25.40. If that level fails to hold, we could have a false breakout on VXX with the market set to make another prolonged bullish run. Looking at the buildup in momentum (MACD) over the years I am not inclined to subscribe to this latter view.
There's another reason why I feel volatility will make another leap forward after this 'pause' and that's because an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern appears on the daily charts. The level of $25.40, which corresponds to the support level on the weekly charts, happens to also be a critical support level on a completely unrelated pattern on the daily charts. The next few weeks are critical if this pattern is to play out, so let's ask ourselves, "what will the catalyst be that makes volatility/VIX/VXX go into such a bullish pattern?" I personally think the reason will be oil with any agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia to simply be posturing. Let's not forget these two countries are now  arming by proxy or have armed groups themselves in Syria. The idea that they produce any kind of agreement as quite naive.

Monday, February 15, 2016

Daily News Roundup: The last mosquito to bite me ended in the Betty Ford Clinic

Business & Finance:
Draghi says ECB will act if market turmoil threatens outlook (Bloomberg)
The world cannot afford another financial crash, it could destroy capitalism as we know it (The Telegraph)
China's Yuan makes largest gain since 2005 on People's Bank of China cue (Wall Street Journal)

Commodities:
Saudi and Russian Oil Ministers plan talks in Doha Tuesday (Bloomberg)
Russia set to flood diamond market with sale of 167,500 carats (Zero Hedge)
Oil extends rally on prospects OPEC could act to counter low prices (Reuters)

Environment:
U.K.'s world beating offshore wind could get $8.4 billion bigger (Bloomberg)

International Affairs:
For closer ASEAN-American relations, thank China (The Economist)
Turkey is about launch a false flag operation so they can invade Syria (321 Gold)
A dramatic Russian escalation in Syria appears imminent (The Saker)
U.S. stocks have been falling as Trump and Sanders are rising. Coincidence? (Barron's)
German "bail-in" plan for government bonds risks blowing up the Euro (The Telegraph)

Art & Design:
Iceland in infrared photos (Design You Trust)
MUD wood bicycle (The Awesomer)
Auto-elasticity by Chris Labrooy (Design Boom)

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Guest Post: Iran-OPEC Collaboration Possible Exit Strategy To Middle East Tensions

Iran's political play with the oil giants

Iran's willingness to negotiate with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members over the global oil glut reflects its desire to hike prices soon in order to revamp its oil sector, which was crippled for years by international sanctions over its nuclear programme, analysts say. Iran will load four million barrels of crude oil on tankers destined…

Guest Post: The Problem With Gold In A Deflationary/Negative Interest Rate Environment

Gold no longer a safe haven asset

Yet again panicky investors are rushing to buy gold at a time of global financial turmoil. It seems that most of the buying of gold is done by ordinary people who are not fully aware of what is actually happening in the global financial markets or the world economy. The rush to buy gold has pushed…

Guest Post: The Final Expression of Manifest Destiny

Iranian Oil Begins To Flow West

Despite the current global glut in crude that began to send prices plunging in mid-2014, Iran is starting to prime its pumps in an effort to boost exports by a million barrels of oil per day in six months. The first Iranian oil shipment to depart the country since the lifting of U.S. and other Western…

Friday, February 12, 2016

Daily News Roundup: Saw some idiot at the gym put a water bottle where the Pringles are supposed go on the treadmill

Business & Finance:
Deutsche Bank to buy back $5.4 billion of bonds (Bloomberg)
Scotiabank CEO sees disconnect between markets, economy (The Globe and Mail)
A Evans-Pritchard: This is a global stock rout worth celebrating (The Telegraph)
Commodities:
Oil industry got together recently and agreed things may never get better (Financial Post)
Oil prices jump on talk OPEC is ready to deal, but traders are wary of 'jawboning' (Financial Post)
Iran gets help with oil cargoes as insurer says U.S. curb lifted (Bloomberg)
Time to buy gold and battered country ETF's? (Barron's)
Bob Moriarty: A Titan Opportunity in Oil? (321 Energy)

International Affairs:
North Korean mobile ballistic missile called top threat by U.S. (Bloomberg)
Venezuela on verge of default as oil prices fall (RT)

Environment:
European solar market grows 15% in 2015 (Renewable Energy Focus)
China overtakes Europe to become global wind power leader (The Guardian)

Art & Design:
Juniper: The Happiest Fox in the World (Design You Trust)
For your inner-child, the Arrow Smart Kart (Hi Consumption)
Introducing the Revival BMW Landspeeder (Cool Material)
Arc 3D printed bicycle (Uncrate)

Before The Bell: Biotechnology (XBI), Gold ($GOLD), Volatility (VXX) and Energy (XLE)

It's OPEX next week which means we can expect a bounce in some equities. The first one I'd like people to turn their mind to is Energy (XLE). On the heels of more jawboning from OPEC, they have now indicated they are prepared to enter negotiations to cut out-put, although Hans van Cleef of ABN AMRO has rightly pointed out, "The comments by the UAE oil minister are pushing prices up...but we're still in a long-term downturn." Looking at the charts a beautiful bullish descending wedge has emerged, but a very strong ceiling has been put in at around $58.00.
Biotechnology has admittedly burned me since my recommendation less than a week ago but the momentum is still so enticingly positive I'm still in biotechnology at a loss.
Volatility has come quite strongly against my inverse head-and-shoulders neckline. I'm not doubting that it will continue to go up but all indicators are over-bought at the moment and so a retracement seems appropriate. I'm thinking about a bounce off of the support line at $27.50 or $26.50.
Gold has been everyone's sweetheart so far for 2016 with an 18% increase. I gave a very painful "buy" recommendation in the last week of December (blue arrow) which has since gone on to stratospheric heights, but a pull back now is both needed and healthy. I think that shorting both gold and gold miners are a good idea.

Guest Post: Short answer, 'no,' long-term, 'meh'

Gold is back in vogue with investors, but the question is, does this rally have legs?

Gold is back in vogue as investors seek out a safe haven amid growing global volatility. The question is whether this gold rally will have legs, or whether it will fizzle out like numerous others over the past few years. The yellow metal is in the midst of a tremendous upward move, jumping 18 per cent…

Sunday, February 07, 2016

Guest Post: Oil industry Debt is Starting to Spread

Debt risks mount as Canada's base metal miners sink deep in the hole

As one base metals mining executive after another took the stage last week at the TD Securities Mining Conference in Toronto, they knew almost everyone in the audience had the same question: What are you going to do about the balance sheet? Right now, it's the only topic that matters. The crash in copper, nickel and…

Friday, February 05, 2016

Daily News Roundup: How much for the horse tornado? That's a carousel. I'll take it.

Business & Finance:
Millennials are starting to change the stock market (Bloomberg)
European shares fall as oil drops, U.S. payrolls miss forecasts (Bloomberg)
The fight between Mrs Clinton and Mr Sanders takes a ferocious new turn (The Economist)

Commodities:
How much oil output halted due to low prices? Just 0.1% (Bloomberg)
Oil market spiral threatens to prick global debt bubble, warns BIS (The Telegraph)
Natural gas consumption falls for the first time in China (ABC)

Environment:
World's biggest wind farm in the world given the go-ahead in Britain (Yahoo)
Morocco turns on massive solar power plant in Sahara (Indian Info Line)

International Affairs:
Pope and Russian Orthodox patriarch to meet for first time in 1000 years (Haaretz
Poland's Kaczynski backs deal with Cameron to keep Britain in the EU (Daily Mail)

Art & Design:
Robot hits hole in one, puts other golfers to shame (Slash Gear)
Europe's first underwater sculpture museum (Design You Trust)
The Wirra Willa Pavillion (Bless This Stuff)
Stage a water balloon war with bunch o' balloons (Man of Many)